Going into Thanksgiving week, what 20 teams still have a shot at getting into the 2020-2021 College Football Playoff? Who will make the CFP?
Right about now in most college football seasons, we all have a handle on the teams realistically in the national championship and the College Football Playoff chase. This year it’s a whole lot more complicated.
The Pac-12 is just getting going – and yet, its season is almost over.
The SEC is winding down, the Big Ten is in the meat of its slate, and without the normal array of non-conference games, there are more Group of Five programs than ever with a crazy dream of slipping into the top four.
What 20 teams still have a path to the playoff?
A few ground rules here the apply to everyone on this list.
1. Talk COVID out of the equation. Any one of these programs could take a severe hit with an outbreak, and to be gross, several teams on this list only have a realistic shot if others aren’t able to go. But for now, for the sake of fun, let’s just assume – and hope, and pray – that everyone is safe and this all goes off without a hitch.
2. Even in this crazy year, let’s just stick with the norms. Go unbeaten and win your Power Five conference, and you’re a mortal lock to be in. This year, though, that’s not a sure thing for the Pac-12 champion. More on that in a bit.
3. No two-loss team has ever made it into the top four. Let’s assume that it’s not happening this year, either, which wipes out the Big 12. Also, any one loss team from a Group of Five conference – a team from the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt – realistically has no chance, either.
4. Realistically, no MAC team has any shot, either. This year it’s an all-MAC slate, so with no non-conference wins to go by, unbeaten Buffalo, Kent State, and Western Michigan teams were eliminated before the season even started.
Ranked by who has the lowest chance to make the College Football Playoff to who has the most realistic shot of getting in, here’s the path to the playoff for 20 teams still in the hunt.
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Path To The Playoff
– Teams that will be told they can make the CFP (but really can’t)
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a LOT of help
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a little help
– Teams that control their CFP destiny
– 4 most likely teams to make the CFP
Path To The Playoff: The desperate long shots
20. Washington State Cougars (1-1)
This is crazy-town, but …
– Get healthy. the Cougars already missed one game and the Apple Cup against Washington is off.
– Schedule a few non-conference games to fit in. Playing anyone to get a win would be good, playing – and beating – someone like BYU would be a huge help.
– Win at USC in convincing fashion, rock Cal, and hope for Oregon and Washington to each lose twice.
– Somehow, through all of the madness, get to the Pac-12 Championship and win in a blowout.
– There have to be several multi-loss Power Five conference champions, and Wazzu has to be beyond amazing down the stretch.
Will Washington State Make The College Football Playoff? If this happens, that means we’ll have experienced the most insane next month of college football ever. (So, to answer the question, very, very no.)
19. Maryland Terrapins (2-1)
Even with the 43-3 loss at Northwestern, the Terps still technically have a shot … sort of.
– Get healthy. The Terps can’t miss another game, or it won’t be eligible for the Big Ten Championship.
– Blowout Indiana in Bloomington, and then blowout Michigan and Rutgers.
– Ohio State has to lose two of its last three games – at Illinois, at Michigan State, Michigan – or (sorry, but breaking one of the rules here) it has to miss two more games and not be eligible to play in the Big Ten Championship.
– The Terps have to get to and win the Big Ten Championship – impressively. So …
Will Maryland Make The College Football Playoff? Hard no.
Path To The Playoff
– Teams that will be told they can make the CFP (but really can’t)
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a LOT of help
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a little help
– Teams that control their CFP destiny
– 4 most likely teams to make the CFP
NEXT: Path To The Playoff: Teams that will be told they can make the College Football Playoff (but really can’t)
Path To The Playoff: Teams that will be told they can make the College Football Playoff (but really can’t)
17. & 18. Marshall Thundering Herd (7-0), Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (8-0)
Both of these teams are in the exact same boat. To have any prayer of getting into the College Football Playoff discussion …
– One of them has to lose, and the other has to roll through the rest of its slate in dominant fashion.
– Coastal Carolina: at Texas State, Liberty, at Troy, and then it has to get to and win the Sun Belt Championship.
– Marshall: Rice, at FIU, and then it has to get to and win the Conference USA Championship.
– BYU and Cincinnati have to lose.
– There has to be total chaos in the Power Five championship games. There has to be multiple multi-loss champions.
Will Marshall or Coastal Carolina Make The College Football Playoff? Not a chance.
15. & 16. BYU Cougars (9-0), Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)
Scream and yell all you want about how unfair the system is, but we’re all adults here. We can speak openly.
A Group of Five program – and this applies to BYU in this case, too – can’t get into the College Football Playoff without at least one big win over a great Power Five program, and even then …
A Group of Five program can’t get into the College Football Playoff.
Of course it’s possible, the committee can do whatever it wants, but it would take something insane for that to happen this year considering that neither program will have played or beaten a Power Five team.
– One of the two programs has to win out, and it would help if the other lost along the way.
– Cincinnati: at Temple, at Tulsa, (likely) American Athletic Conference Championship.
– BYU: San Diego State.
– At least three of the five Power Five conference champions need to have multiple losses, and even then it would be tough unless the champs have more than two defeats.
HOWEVER, and this is the wild-card that can change all of this …
– Cincinnati and/or BYU have to schedule and obliterate at least one brand name Power Five program. The Pac-12 has said it’s open to its teams scheduling non-conference games, but that’s not quite as easy as it might appear.
As this is being written, reportedly, Washington has reached out to BYU to play, but BYU wants to wait until after the first rankings come out – even though there’s NO chance BYU gets in without a blowout win over a Power Five program.
Will BYU or Cincinnati Make The College Football Playoff? Nope. There’s a hard ceiling on how close Group of Five programs can come without playing a full Power Five schedule.
Path To The Playoff
– The desperate long shots
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a LOT of help
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a little help
– Teams that control their CFP destiny
– 4 most likely teams to make the CFP
NEXT: Path To The Playoff: Teams that can make the College Football Playoff … with a LOT of help
Path To The Playoff: Teams that can make the College Football Playoff … with a LOT of help
11-14. Colorado Buffaloes (2-0), Oregon Ducks (3-0), USC Trojans (3-0), Washington Huskies (2-0)
Over the coming weeks, at least one of these teams will move up fast, but to make this work, two of them have to stay unbeaten …
– Preferably, Oregon and USC run the table.
– Colorado: at USC, at Arizona, Utah, Pac-12 Championship, and try to find one decent non-conference date.
– Oregon: at Oregon State, at Cal, Washington, Pac-12 Championship.
– USC: Colorado, Washington State, at UCLA, Pac-12 Championship.
– Washington: Stanford, at Oregon, Pac-12 Championship, and try to find one decent non-conference date.
– Realistically, the two teams in the Pac-12 Championship need to be unbeaten.
– At least two of the other three Power Five champions need to have multiple losses. That’s not an absolute, but it would be a huge help.
– The unbeaten Pac-12 champ needs to have a story. It has to be playing so well that it wouldn’t be a representative College Football Playoff without the Pac-12.
Will the Pac-12 Champion Make The College Football Playoff? There might be a much better chance at this than you might think. The teams higher on this have clearer paths, but they’re going to start dropping fast.
10. Wisconsin Badgers (2-1)
The 17-7 loss to Northwestern all but ended any College Football Playoff hopes in a shortened Big Ten season, but …
– Get healthy. The team was ripped up by COVID, and it’s having injury issues after just a few games.
– Beat Minnesota, Indiana, and win at Iowa.
– Northwestern has to lose two of its last three: at Michigan State, at Minnesota, Illinois.
– Go the the Big Ten Championship against (almost certainly) Ohio State, and win.
Will Wisconsin Get To Make The College Football Playoff? The Badgers need Northwestern to stall – that’s not an insane ask. The Wildcats could certainly get tripped up once, but it probably won’t happen twice. If it does, and considering how close Indiana came to beating Ohio State … still, no. It won’t happen, but there’s a path.
Path To The Playoff
– The desperate long shots
– Teams that will be told they can make the CFP (but really can’t)
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a little help
– Teams that control their CFP destiny
– 4 most likely teams to make the CFP
NEXT: Path To The Playoff: Teams that can make the College Football Playoff … with a little help
Path To The Playoff: Teams that can make the College Football Playoff … with a little help
9. Indiana Hoosiers (4-1)
The Hoosiers got so much respect after the Ohio State game you’d have thought they won. On the plus side, it was such a good showing in the 42-35 loss that they still might have a shot.
– Beat Maryland, win in convincing fashion at Wisconsin – that has to be an annihilation – and rock Purdue.
Here’s where it gets tricky.
– In a perfect world, Indiana wins out, and Ohio State loses two of its last three to at Illinois, at Michigan State, and Michigan. Then IU goes to the Big Ten Championship and wins it – it would be in. OR …
– IU wins out, Ohio State destroys everything in its path – especially if it plays an unbeaten Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship. There’s one open spot in the CFP, and in a four-best-team way, the committee decides that Indiana losing like it did at Ohio State still makes it one of the top teams.
Will Indiana Make The College Football Playoff? No, but if you’re going to argue for Texas A&M or Miami, then Indiana has to be in the discussion, too, if it wins out and if Ohio State goes unbeaten.
8. Miami Hurricanes (7-1)
– Win out. At Wake Forest, North Carolina, Georgia Tech.
– Notre Dame loses two of its last three games – at North Carolina, Syracuse, at Wake Forest – and/or Clemson loses one of its last two games – Pitt, at Virginia Tech.
– Miami gets to the ACC Championship and wins. OR …
– Miami wins each of its last three games in a rout. Notre Dame beats Clemson in the ACC Championship, or better yet, Notre Dame loses before the ACC title game, and then gets blown away by the Tigers.
– Three spots in the CFP are taken, there’s an open fourth spot, and there aren’t any obvious choices, and 10-1 Miami whose only loss was at Clemson back in mid-October is left standing.
Will Miami Make The College Football Playoff? It’s one of the more likely possibilities not being talked about all that much. The path is rockier than it is for some of the other teams higher on this list, and the Canes have to start looking the part, but don’t be stunned if this becomes a real thing very soon.
7. Texas A&M Aggies (5-1)
The only reason A&M isn’t higher than this is because it doesn’t control its own destiny, and the teams in the top six do. However, because of the win against Florida, and because the only loss is at Alabama, there’s still a shot.
– Win out against LSU, at Auburn, and at Tennessee, but first …
– Get healthy and get back on the field. No more canceled/postponed games.
– Look amazing in the last three games, especially at Auburn on the way to 8-1.
– Alabama has to rip through everyone else and win the SEC Championship in a walk, making the 52-24 loss in Tuscaloosa seem even more acceptable. The other hope is to win out and get to the SEC title game by Bama losing to both Auburn and at Arkansas, but that’s unlikely.
In these final two things, A&M beating Auburn impressively would be a huge help.
– There’s an even funkier scenario. Alabama loses one of its last two games to Auburn or at Arkansas, Florida wins the SEC Championship, and Texas A&M wins out. There’s an even funkier scenario than that …
– A&M wins out, Florida beats previously unbeaten Alabama for the SEC Championship, and there’s a meltdown in the ACC and/or Big Ten championships. The College Football Playoff takes three SEC teams.
Will Texas A&M Make The College Football Playoff? The Aggies will get very, very close, but it’s hardly a sure thing that they’ll win at Auburn. If they win out, though, they’ll at least be knocking at the door.
Path To The Playoff
– The desperate long shots
– Teams that will be told they can make the CFP (but really can’t)
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a LOT of help
– Teams that control their CFP destiny
– 4 most likely teams to make the CFP
NEXT: Path To The Playoff: Teams that control their College Football Playoff destiny
Path To The Playoff: Teams that control their College Football Playoff destiny
6. Northwestern Wildcats (5-0)
You’ve got to be in it to win it, and Northwestern might have just punched its ticket to be in the Big Ten Championship for the second time in three seasons after its 17-7 win over Wisconsin.
– Win out at Michigan State, at Minnesota, Illinois. However, just win two of the three and it’s in the Big Ten Championship.
– Win out and play (most likely) Ohio State impressively in a loss, and there’s a chance to get in as the No. 4 team if there are no other options. Or …
– Get to the Big Ten Championship unbeaten, beat the Buckeyes, and the Cats are in as no worse than the No. 3 seed. Or …
– Lose one of the last three games, beat an unbeaten Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship, and hope there’s only one option from the ACC and/or SEC, and no Pac-12 champion is available.
Will Northwestern Make The College Football Playoff? If Indiana can come that close to pulling it off against Ohio State, Northwestern can at least dream reasonably. It’s Thanksgiving week, and it’s one of six teams that controls its own College Football Playoff destiny. There should be a moment in Indianapolis in the middle of the game that it all seems possible.
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5. Florida Gators (6-1)
Florida doesn’t have as many paths to the College Football Playoff as others do, but it has one direct one.
– Beat Kentucky, win at Tennessee, beat LSU. Beat (most likely) Alabama in the SEC Championship. That’s it. That’s the path. Unless …
– Florida loses one of its last three games and trucks Alabama in the SEC Championship. A close win over Bama would still make it hard for the College Football Playoff committee to take a two-loss team – especially considering one of the losses in the last three games would be to a mediocre team – but a blowout would change the mindset. Or …
– Win the last three regular season games, lose to Alabama in a classic SEC Championship, and there isn’t a good option from the ACC or – more likely – the Big Ten. A Texas A&M loss would help, too.
Will Florida Make The College Football Playoff? It’ll get to the SEC Championship with a chance, and it’ll fall just short in a loss to Alabama.
Path To The Playoff
– The desperate long shots
– Teams that will be told they can make the CFP (but really can’t)
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a LOT of help
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a little help
– 4 most likely teams to make the CFP
NEXT: Path To The Playoff: 4 most likely teams to make the College Football Playoff
Path To The Playoff: 4 most likely teams to make the College Football Playoff
4. Clemson Tigers (7-1)
Clemson is in the same position as Florida. It has to win out to get in, but beating Notre Dame – assuming the Irish don’t lose two of their last three games – isn’t as tall as task as beating Alabama, like Florida will likely have to do.
– Beat Pitt and win at Virginia Tech. Beat Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, and get in as the 2 or 3 seed.
– Win the last two regular season games but lose another close classic to the unbeaten Irish. The discussion then becomes – on a four-best team theory – that Clemson might still be a top four team if the two losses are only to Notre Dame.
Will Clemson Make The College Football Playoff? It’s a salty Clemson team in the ACC Championship. Yup – it’ll be back in the College Football Playoff.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-0)
Thanks to the thrilling 47-40 overtime win over Clemson a few weeks ago, there’s a forgiving margin of error here for the Irish.
– Win out – at North Carolina, Syracuse, at Wake Forest, ACC Championship – and get into the College Football Playoff as no worse than the 3 seed, likely the 2 – even though that doesn’t mean much.
– Lose one of the last three games, win the ACC Championship, get in likely as the 4 seed.
– Win the last three regular season games, lose a close fight to Clemson in the ACC Championship, and hope Alabama rolls through to the SEC Championship and nothing too funky happens in the Big Ten Championship. Even a blowout to the Tigers might still get the Irish in as the 4 seed.
Will Notre Dame Make The College Football Playoff? Yeah, but it’ll have to sweat a bit after a good-fight loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship. Don’t just assume the Irish are beating North Carolina and Wake Forest on the road, by the way.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)
Ohio State might not be the team it was last year, and the Big Ten has been a total train wreck, but no way, no how, no chance does an unbeaten Big Ten champion not make the College Football Playoff, especially if it’s Ohio State.
– First … STAY HEALTHY, and hope that at least two of the last three opponents don’t have to tap out. Ohio State already missed the Maryland game because the Terps had COVID issues, and if it misses two more games, it’s not eligible for the Big Ten Championship. However, if Ohio State is 5-0 and doesn’t get to six games because other programs couldn’t go, it would still likely be in the CFP.
– Ohio State wins out at Illinois, at Michigan State, Michigan, Big Ten Championship, and it’s off to the College Football Playoff semifinal in the Rose Bowl no matter what the seed.
– Ohio State loses one of its last three regular season games but still wins the Big Ten Championship. It would be a little trickier – an unbeaten Alabama can’t lose to Florida in the SEC Championship and an unbeaten Notre Dame can’t lose to Clemson on the ACC Championship – but assume a 7-1 Big Ten champ Buckeye team is in.
– Unbeaten Ohio State loses to an unbeaten Northwestern in a classic Big Ten Championship, and there are enough multi-loss Power Five champs that the College Football Playoff takes two Big Ten teams. That’s unlikely, but possible.
Will Ohio State Make The College Football Playoff? Yeah, but expect more Indiana-like drama along the way.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
Oh Alabama how the College Football Playoff missed you last year. Really, at least you would’ve been more interesting than Oklahoma.
Bama isn’t the mortal lock you might think it is. Auburn has screwed up this program before – like, you know, last year – and going to Arkansas might be a quirky-weird day. Lose one of those two, and dropping a firefight in the SEC Championship to Florida means a second straight season with no CFP. So …
– Win out. Auburn, at Arkansas, (most likely) Florida in the SEC Championship, and be the No. 1 seed in the Sugar Bowl.
– Beat Auburn and Arkansas, lose a close battle to Florida, and most likely, get in as the No. 4 seed. On the plus side, that would still probably be the Sugar Bowl, unless it’s Ohio State at the 1, and then the Tide would be off to the Rose Bowl.
– Lose one of the last two regular season games, beat Florida for the SEC Championship, likely be the 3 seed.
Will Alabama Make The College Football Playoff? Again, it’s not a wild thought to suggest that Bama could lose once and then to Florida, but nah. For now, pencil in the Crimson Tide as the No. 1 seed in the Sugar Bowl.
CFN Rankings 1-127 | CFN Bowl Projections
20 Most Important College Football Thoughts Ever
College Football Playoff Top 25 Projection
10 Best Games of Week 12: Highlights, Top Plays
Path To The Playoff
– The desperate long shots
– Teams that will be told they can make the CFP (but really can’t)
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a LOT of help
– Teams that can make the CFP … with a little help
– Teams that control their CFP destiny
