Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s June visit to Turkey marks the latest step in the ongoing rapprochement between the two countries. The move comes as Ankara seeks to expand its influence in the Caucasus, amid the waning power of regional rivals Iran and Russia.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s hosting of Pashinyan in Istanbul last month represents a notable diplomatic effort to normalise relations. Ankara had severed diplomatic ties and closed its border with Armenia in 1993 following the war between Armenia and Turkey’s close ally, Azerbaijan, over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
However, Pashinyan’s Istanbul visit is being hailed as groundbreaking. “I believe it was very significant for several reasons. It was the first bilateral diplomatic summit between the Turkish and Armenian leaders,” explains Richard Giragosian, Director of the Regional Studies Centre, a Yerevan-based think tank.
Until now, interactions between the two leaders had been limited to multilateral engagements—such as Erdoğan’s inauguration and meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But Giragosian argues that the Istanbul meeting carries deeper significance.
“This is the first bilateral invitation from Turkey to the Armenian leader. That reflects a second important development: Turkey is seeking to regain its options with Armenia,” observes Giragosian.
Armenia looks to reopen border with Turkey as potential gateway to the West
Zangezur corridor at centre
One of the key issues discussed was the creation of a land bridge through Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Turkey. Known as the Zangezur Corridor, this project is a strategic priority for Ankara. It would not only link Turkey directly to its key ally and vital trade partner Azerbaijan, but also open a new route for Turkish goods to Central Asia.
“It is especially important now from an economic standpoint,” notes international relations professor Hüseyin Bağcı of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.
Pashinyan’s visit is seen as part of a broader Turkish diplomatic push to secure regional support for the Zangezur Corridor. “This is why Prime Minister Pashinyan came to Turkey,” says Bağcı, who suggests Erdoğan is attempting to counter Iranian resistance. “The Zangezur Corridor should not be held hostage by Iranian opposition. It shouldn’t be conditional on Iran’s stance,” he adds.
Iran, Armenia’s powerful neighbour, strongly opposes the corridor. Currently, Turkish goods must transit through Iran to reach Central Asia—giving Tehran significant leverage. Iran has often restricted this trade during periods of diplomatic tension with Ankara. More critically, Tehran fears the proposed 40-kilometre corridor would cut off a vital route it uses to bypass international sanctions.
Despite Turkish diplomatic efforts, Iran remains firmly opposed. “Nothing has changed in Tehran’s position regarding the Zangezur Corridor. Iran is still against the project,” warns Prof Dr Zaur Gasimov of the German Academic Exchange Service.
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Gasimov notes, however, that recent geopolitical developments—particularly Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran—have shifted the regional balance in Ankara’s favour. “As of July 2025, Iran’s diplomatic, political, and military capabilities are far more constrained than they were just a few years ago, due to Israel-led and US-led operations,” says Gasimov. “In both military and political terms, Iran is now significantly limited.”
Yet Azerbaijan’s insistence that the Zangezur Corridor operate independently of Armenian control remains a major sticking point for Yerevan, says Giragosian. Still, he believes the broader aim of establishing a new trade route—combined with Turkey’s willingness to reopen its border—offers the region both economic incentives and a path towards stability through mutual dependence.
“The reopening of closed borders, and the creation of trade and transport links, reshapes strategic thinking. It makes any renewal of hostilities far more costly,” says Giragosian.
“In this context, it lifts all boats. It’s a win-win for everyone,” he continues. “And I do think the real sticking point now will be Russia’s reaction, more than any resistance from Turkey, Armenia, or Azerbaijan.”
Russia and Iran push back
Initially, Moscow supported the Zangezur Corridor, particularly since Russian personnel were envisioned to administer it under the original proposals. But Gasimov notes that Russia’s enthusiasm has cooled as it grows increasingly wary of Turkey’s expanding influence in a region it still considers part of its traditional sphere.
“Moscow is very concerned about Ankara–Yerevan relations. Turkey, after all, is a NATO member—even if Russia cooperates with it in several areas,” says Gasimov.
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Despite being heavily engaged in its war in Ukraine, Gasimov suggests Russia still has leverage in the South Caucasus
“After three years of war and sweeping sanctions, Russia’s capabilities in the region are diminished. But it continues to try to assert itself—by intimidating vulnerable regional economies and exploiting internal political instability, as it did in Armenia just two weeks ago,” says Gasimov.
Last month, Armenian security forces arrested several opposition figures, claiming to have foiled a coup attempt.
As Moscow remains bogged down in Ukraine, Yerevan may have only a limited window of opportunity to capitalise on Russia’s distraction and weakness. “We do see a storm on the horizon,” warns Giragosian. “With an angry and vengeful Putin lashing out at Russia’s neighbours, he’s seeking to reassert Russian power and influence across the near abroad—from Central Asia to the South Caucasus.”
Armenia reconsiders alliances
Giragosian argues that such threats could be the catalyst for historic diplomatic realignments. “From an Armenian perspective, it’s deeply ironic. For decades, Armenia feared Turkey and turned to Russia for protection. Now, Armenia is looking to Turkey for a greater role—and seeking to distance itself from the Russian orbit.”
Pashinyan has made no secret of his intent to pivot Armenia away from Russia and towards Europe. But with neighbouring Georgia increasingly under Moscow’s sway, and with Iran and Azerbaijan offering few viable alternatives, Turkey may now represent Armenia’s best chance to achieve that strategic realignment.
