The Carolina Panthers used the eighth overall pick in the 2003 NFL draft to select offensive tackle Jordan Gross.
That selection led to the kind of career that most teams can only dream about. Gross, playing mostly left tackle, started the most games by any player in franchise history (167), made three Pro Bowls and was first-team All-Pro in 2008.
Now a member of the Panthers’ Hall of Honor, Gross only started fewer than 15 games in a season once (nine in 2009) during his 11-year NFL career.
Since his retirement after the 2013 season, the Panthers have gone through a revolving door at left tackle. Fourteen different players have started at the position, lacking any kind of consistency for one of the most important roles. Four of those players remain on the roster today — Greg Little, Dennis Daley, Trent Scott and Taylor Moton, who has become the team’s starting right tackle and best offensive lineman.
Ahead of the 2021 NFL draft, the Panthers have addressed most of their needs in free agency, filling holes with veteran players, largely under the age of 30, on one- or two-year deals.
They traded with the New York Jets for quarterback Sam Darnold, hopeful he can succeed where Teddy Bridgewater did not. They brought in receiver David Moore from Seattle after Curtis Samuel leveraged his best professional season for a bigger contract in Washington. Tight end Dan Arnold was signed from Arizona.
But no matter the gains at skill positions — including the return of a healthy Christian McCaffrey — their success still hinges on the quality of an offensive line. The Panthers have done little to improve the line ahead of the draft despite coach Matt Rhule and new general manager Scott Fitterer calling it a key area to build around.
Not one offensive line position has a clear long-term starter under contract, including Moton, who could play on his one-year franchise tag in search of bigger money next year. Part of Darnold’s issues in New York was not having enough protection. Work still needs to be done to prevent the same problem in Carolina.
The Panthers cannot leave next week’s draft without addressing the offensive line in some way, including possibly a left tackle once again with that eighth pick. It can often to be hard to measure the success of an offensive line, but devoting resources and developing players, especially at tackle, is an integral part of the best offenses.
FINDING THE RIGHT COMBINATION
Successful offensive lines are not filled with all first-round draft picks, but having multiple players at the top of their position is important.
“Three of your offensive linemen have to be above-average starters, meaning if they were ranked somewhere between one and 15 in the league at their position, that would be the area,” former NFL offensive line coach and OL consultant Paul Alexander told The Observer. “Typically, if you have three of those guys, you’ve got a really good offensive line. That’s kind of been true over time. It’s hard to have a great line if you’ve just got one of them.”
The Panthers currently have one of those players with Moton, who was selected in the second round of the 2017 draft. Investing in an offensive lineman in the first round has become almost as close as can be to guaranteed success with an NFL draft pick.
The Panthers are the only team since 2009 that has not used a first-round pick on an offensive lineman (the team did not pick in the first round in 2009 and 2010). In the team’s history, only three offensive linemen — all tackles — have been picked in the first round: Blake Brockermeyer (1995), Gross and Jeff Otah (2008).
In an ESPN study of draft picks from 2000-2016, offensive linemen were found to be the position most likely to succeed. Fifty five offensive tackles were taken in the first round during that span and 60% (33) received second contracts from the teams that drafted them. Otah is not among that group due to persist knee issues that ended his career. Twenty-six first-round guards were taken over that stretch and 12 received second contracts (46.2%), and all nine of the first-round centers were given those deals.
For comparison, defensive tackle, which the Panthers addressed last year in the first round with Derrick Brown, only had 35.3% of first-round picks get a second contract from the team that took them.
When looking at tackles specifically, with left tackle such a question mark for the Panthers, out of 32 qualified offensive tackles that received the best grade from Pro Football Focus in 2020, 16 were drafted in the first round and seven in the second round.
Most of those players were on the team that drafted them, but if not, they were largely acquired through an expensive trade. Washington traded then 31-year old Trent Williams to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2020 fifth-round pick and 2021 third-round selection and then gave him the biggest offensive lineman contract ever this offseason.
Similar examples exist with Duane Brown to Seattle, which Fitterer was involved with when he was with the Seahawks, and the infamous Laremy Tunsil trade.
“I have always believed in offensive line, offensive line, offensive line, because I was the assistant GM of the Jets, and we lost two quarterbacks in seven snaps,” ESPN analyst and former NFL general manger Mike Tannenbaum told The Observer. “When I became the GM in 2006, my feeling was that we could have John Elway in this draft and we’re still taking offense linemen, because if we cannot protect, nothing matters.”
Of the eight most recent Super Bowl champions, four had starting left tackles selected in the first round and that number increases to five in the first two rounds. Months after losing in the Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City Chiefs have made it an absolutely priority to upgrade the offensive line, by signing a big free agent — Joe Thuney — and trading for left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.
More is needed than just investing early draft picks and splashy free agent signings. Looking back at the top-graded offensive lines from the 2020 season, they all have at least one player who was developed by the organization, which could give the Panthers hope for players like Little (second round, 2019) or Daley (sixth round, 2019).
Take the Cleveland Browns, for example, which had PFF’s top-rated line last season. The Brown drafted Jedrick Willis Jr. in the first round last year and signed former first-round pick tackle Jack Conklin to a three-year deal worth $42 million. It was the surprising play of former Bills fifth-round pick right guard Wyatt Teller, however, that helped take the Browns over the edge. Teller’s PFF grade led his position and he played a key role in 11 starts.
The Panthers’ offensive line finished 18th in 2020, per PFF’s rankings. Thirteen of the 17 ranked ahead of Carolina made the playoffs.
HOW DID THE PANTHERS GET HERE?
The simple answer would be not investing highly in the draft and certain players not developing as expected. Little was the most recent second-round pick (who the team traded up to acquire) and was believed to be the left tackle of the future. But he was a healthy scratch for multiple games last year.
“I watched him on film and it’s really kind of, to be honest with you, confusing why he’s so poor,” Alexander said. “You got the same guy (offensive line coach Pat Meyer) doing a great job coaching Taylor Moton, who is a terrific player, that’s coaching Little, so it’s not the coaching ... but he should be a much better player.”
Since 2011, 32 players have started for the Panthers along the offensive line. For almost all of that time, center was not an issue, thanks to Ryan Kalil. More recently, the free-agent signing of Matt Paradis has provided security at that role. The biggest turnover, of course, has been at left tackle.
Some of that can be blamed on injuries, but it also is due to offensive line shuffling and the difficulties of finding a long-term solution. Of those players, 22 have started 10 or more games and 17 have started at least 16 games.
It’s not uncommon for teams to have had a high number of starters on the line, but the Panthers had a tough time last year, especially at left tackle. Ten different line combinations were used with nine starters, among the worst in the league. Football Outsiders awarded the Panthers the NFL’s third-worst continuity score, which measures the number of line changes and starters used.
What about the team’s investment in the draft? Picks over the last decade have had mixed success.
Turner, a five-time Pro Bowler, was traded away last offseason to the Los Angeles Chargers in exchange for left tackle Russell Okung, on what turned out to be a one-year rental. The trade didn’t work for either side as both players missed significant time with injury, but it did take a bit of money off the Panthers’ cap.
Under two previous general managers — Marty Hurney, Dave Gettleman and then Hurney again — the Panthers invested in the offensive line nine times from 2011-20. Having Kalil and drafting players such as right guard Trai Turner in the third round of the 2014 draft provided some stability at certain positions for many years and helped with the 2015 Super Bowl run.
And there were other selections that did work. Taking Moton in the second round in 2017 and Daryl Williams in the fourth round in 2015 turned out to be solid picks. Moving on from Williams, however, did not turn out well. He found success in Buffalo in 2020 and signed a three-year $24 million contract this offseason.
Amini Silatolu, a 2012 second-round pick, provided some value in two stints with the team but dealt with a variety of injuries. Daley is on the path to be a successful pick for the sixth round if he can stay healthy. Undrafted guard Andrew Norwell was a rare success story and turned into a solid starter for multiple years.
Unsuccessful free agent deals, including signing left tackle Matt Kalil to a five-year, $55 million deal when he only played one full season (2017), hasn’t helped matters. Guard Greg Van Roten walked last offseason in free agency, and this offseason the team moved on from Okung and guard Chris Reed, who was inconsistent in 14 starts last year.
In free agency this year, the Panthers added two versatile veterans with Cam Erving, a former first-round pick, and Pat Elflein. The deals were widely panned among the worst free-agent signings of the offseason with Erving graded as the 76th tackle among 89 qualified players last year, per PFF. The biggest non-draft acquisitions of the past few years were trading for Okung and signing Kalil and Paradis.
If left tackle isn’t addressed in the draft, Erving, Little and Scott will be competing for the role. Some players can find success in new schemes, but versatility is far more important for backups.
“I think if you’re looking at a guy who can be a starter, it doesn’t matter if he can play multiple positions, because he’s a starter and that’s his spot and that’s what he’ll play,” Alexander said. “But if you’re looking at a guy that you believe is going to be an important backup player, he’s got to be able to play multiple positions in order to make the game day roster.”
WHAT COMES NEXT?
The Panthers have seven picks in next week’s NFL draft. Investing in the offensive line should and will be a priority. As illustrated above, left tackle is a key need, but it’s not just about that. The offensive line does not have a clear long-term starter locked in at any position; Moton and Paradis are scheduled to become free agents next year.
Getting quality players, not just filling a position, is what will create success for Carolina’s offense. The top left tackle option in this year’s draft is largely considered to be Oregon’s Penei Sewell, while Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater is another top option, but may project as more of a guard in the NFL. Tackle is also considered one of the deepest positions in this year’s draft, so there will be other options, but the track record of those picked in the first round speaks for itself.
There are new decision-makers for the Panthers, so the same patterns shouldn’t be expected, but for Darnold or whoever is playing quarterback to succeed, there’s a clear position group that is still in need of an overhaul.
Whether it’s with the eighth overall pick this year or not, investing in the offensive line has proven to stabilize and propel franchises.
PANTHERS’ OFFENSIVE LINE ENTERING 2021 NFL DRAFT
Left tackle: Cam Erving, Trent Scott, Greg Little, Aaron Monteiro
Left guard: Pat Elflein, Dennis Daley
Center: Matt Paradis, Sam Tecklenburg
Right guard: John Miller, Mike Horton
Right tackle: Taylor Moton, Matt Kaskey, Martez Ivey
*Bold represents players drafted by Panthers, italicized players are free agents in 2022.
