Strife, interference and even another coup could be in store after the disputed March 24 election, according to three academics and a journalist speaking at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand on May 9.
Calling the election “one of the most manipulated – before the election and after the election – in Thai history”, Naresuan University lecturer and special adviser on international affairs Paul Chambers foresaw four likely scenarios: an unwieldy Palang Pracharat-led government unable to pass laws, a surprise coalition led by Anutin Charnvirakul of Bhumjaithai, a parliamentary stalemate leading to an appointed government and another election next year, and the possibility of another coup if Future Forward is dissolved and protesters hold rallies. “There could be rioting in the streets,” he said.
Anusorn Unno, Dean of Thammasat University’s Faculty of Sociology and Anthropology, said the resignation of 15 cabinet ministers to take up seats in the Senate was provoking widespread discontent. “How can you administer the country without even one minister in a ministry,” he asked. “Unbelievable. That’s what’s happening in Thailand right now.”
Dr Anusorn said the controversial party-list seat formula was part of the Election Commission’s coping strategy to limit the unexpected success of Future Forward in the constituency system. That strategy faces obstacles, he said, in the form of lawsuits by Future Forward and Pheu Thai and possible street protests.
Jade Donavanik, President of the Faculty of Law at the College of Asian Scholars, and a former adviser to the Constitution Drafting Committee, said that although the Constitutional Court ruled that the Election Commission had not violated electoral law or the constitution, the Court did not endorse the party-list formula itself. Future Forward had a legitimate case to oppose the formula giving seats to parties winning less than 71,000 votes, he said, but Pheu Thai did not, since the number of constituency seats it won exceeded its share of the popular vote.
BBC’s Bangkok-based Southeast Asia correspondent painted the election as yet another example of the military’s interference in politics. “Thailand has not reset,” he said. “In a way we’re right back to yet another stage in the long crisis.”
“You have to ask, is this helpful, when large parts of society who don’t want change or don’t like the way things are going, think at the back of their minds: ‘We can always rely on the military to step in’. That, possibly, is an issue that Thais need to think about when they actually have a new government in office.”
