Wall Street speculation over potential upside from the Trump administration's "Golden Dome" program for defense stocks is building up in the wake of last week's 2025 Air, Space & Cyber Conference, with Palantir Technologies in the mix amid its partnership with Anduril Industries. But a big Golden Dome boost for Palantir stock is still iffy amid competition from Lockheed Martin and potentially others.
The "Golden Dome" air and missile defense shield dominated many company discussions at the defense conference, according to a RBC Capital report.
"Our takeaway was that there is still significant uncertainty around how the program will progress, and initial issues around budgets, funding, and contract timing remain uncertain," said RBC Capital analyst Ken Herbert in a report.
"We were also struck by the extent to which the primes appear to be waiting for clarity from the Department of Defense on Golden Dome, while many of the smaller companies appear to be more aggressively leaning into the program. We continue to believe that funding for Golden Dome will be strong, but there already appear to be bureaucratic challenges that could impact the schedule."
Anduril is viewed as a new challenger to defense industry incumbents.
Golden Dome Cost Debated
A recent report by the American Enterprise Institute, called Build Your Own Golden Dome, analyzed the program's possible costs and build-out scenarios. While most estimates for Golden Dome's cost have been around $175 billion, one of AEI's base case estimates is that the project could cost some $252 billion over 20 years. Congress has already appropriated $25 billion for the program.
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The Space Dome would require new advanced interceptors, both space and earth-based, to defend against swarms of drones, aircraft and hypersonic or cruise missiles. Many defense companies are expected to bid for Golden Dome's hardware system components, including Boeing, RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Textron, Amentum and many others.
But data analysis for decision-making is also a key part of the program. That's where the Army's Next-Generation Command and Control (NGC2) platform comes in.
NGC2 is an Army modernization program to update battlefield command and control. NGC2 is expected to be fielded in 2026, with an estimated cost of $3 billion, said a Jefferies report published on Sept. 25.
Anduril, Lockheed Building NGC2 Prototypes
In July, the Army awarded Anduril a $99.6 million contract with partners that include Palantir to develop the next phase of the Army's NGC2 platform prototype. Other Anduril partners include Striveworks, Govini, Instant Connect Enterprise, Research Innovations and Microsoft.
Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin in early September received a $26 million contract to develop a prototype architecture. The Army is expected to approve more prototype projects. The Army is focused on creating different industry teams to encourage competition and innovation, analysts say. Another potential NGC2 player could be L3Harris Technologies.
One view is that NGC2 could serve as a foundational piece for a larger, integrated Space Dome data network. A key part of the Golden Dome concept is a unified command-and-control network that receives sensor data, analyzes threats and launches interceptors. Anduril and Palantir are developing an artificial-intelligence based NGC2 platform.
Anduril has been developing pilotless fighter jets and other autonomous systems. It was founded by former Facebook executive Palmer Luckey and three former Palantir executives.
Further, Elon Musk's SpaceX, Anduril and Plantir are collaborating on a satellite-based defense system proposal, according to reports.
General Mike Guetlein, who is in charge of the Golden Dome program's day-to-day operations, is expected to present more details by mid-November, according to reports.
Palantir Stock Technical Ratings
Palantir stock is up about 136% in 2025. But shares have retreated from an all-time high of 190 on Aug. 12.
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Palantir stock has boomed amid views that the company seems poised to win more U.S. government business during the Trump administration. Also, retail investor enthusiasm for generative artificial intelligence plays has lifted Palantir stock, although commercial-related revenue has yet to ramp up.
At the 2025 Air, Space & Cyber Conference, Palantir's Shon Manasco, a senior industry counselor, said traditional defense contractors need to improve production methods. Boeing recently announced it will use Palantir's software platform in its defense factories. Boeing's BDS unit operates more than a dozen major production lines, manufacturing military aircraft, helicopters, satellites, spacecraft, missiles and weapons.
Follow Reinhardt Krause on X, formerly Twitter, @reinhardtk_tech for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
