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Few stocks have captured investors’ imagination in 2025 quite like Palantir Technologies (PLTR). Fueled by surging demand for its artificial intelligence (AI)-driven analytics software, Palantir’s shares have more than doubled this year alone, pushing the company into the ranks of America’s 21 most valuable corporations by market cap. Today, Palantir sports a market capitalization of around $364 billion - a remarkable achievement for a company that, until recently, had largely been known for niche data analytics contracts with U.S. intelligence agencies.
But investors are now daring to dream bigger: What would it take for Palantir to become the single most valuable company in the United States, surpassing the likes of Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA)? Is such a milestone even remotely achievable, or is it purely a speculative fantasy? With Wall Street prepping for Palantir's latest quarterly results after tonight's close, let’s dive in and find out.
About Palantir Technologies Stock
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) develops and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community, commercial enterprises, and government entities around the globe. It offers a range of platforms, such as Palantir Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).
The Gotham platform is designed for detecting patterns in large datasets for defense and intelligence agencies, while Foundry functions as a central operating system for data across multiple industries. Apollo is the company’s cloud-agnostic platform that enables seamless software updates, while the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) leverages generative AI models to improve decision-making across commercial and government sectors.
Shares of the analytics software provider have gained 103% year-to-date. The meteoric rise has been driven by enthusiasm around its AI software, strong quarterly earnings, and closer ties with the U.S. government. Thanks to this explosive growth, PLTR has now become one of the 21 most valuable companies in the United States.
Palantir Continues to Fire on All Cylinders
Palantir continues to see overwhelming demand for its products. The company develops analytics software that consolidates a wide range of data points for large organizations, including both the U.S. government and private enterprises. And the Alex Karp-led company didn’t stop there — Palantir has advanced further by enhancing its product suite with AI-driven automation to deliver real-time insights to its customers.
For much of its history, the company was primarily recognized for its work with U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, as well as allied governments and agencies overseas. Revenue from Palantir’s U.S. government business remains the largest contributor to total revenue, accounting for 42.2% in the first quarter. Notably, U.S. government revenue stood at $373 million in Q1, up 45% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter. That growth was fueled by strong performance in existing programs and new contract wins, highlighting the growing demand for AI in the company’s government software solutions.
That business segment has often been viewed as solid but limited, as government work cannot be scaled easily. However, last Thursday, Palantir secured a major deal with the U.S. Army worth up to $10 billion over 10 years, aimed at meeting the military’s modern software needs and demand for data-driven insights and decision-making. Analysts estimate that, in the best-case scenario, this deal could add an average of $250 million to Palantir’s quarterly revenue run rate, representing a significant structural boost.
Meanwhile, commercial revenue has been scaling impressively in recent quarters, with Palantir’s AIP emerging as a standout product. In Q1, U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to $255 million. The company achieved $1 billion annual run rate in its U.S. commercial business for the first time, as AIP continues to fuel both new customer acquisitions and existing customer expansions in the U.S. Notably, in the first quarter, Palantir secured 139 customer deals worth at least $1 million and 31 deals valued at $10 million or more. However, first-quarter international commercial revenue fell 5% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter to $141 million, impacted by continued headwinds in Europe and a one-time revenue catch-up in the fourth quarter of 2024 (we'll return to this later).
Overall, Palantir’s total revenue growth has continued to gain momentum in recent quarters, earning praise from Wall Street. Its top line grew 39% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to $884 million, beating analysts’ expectations by $21.72 million. Palantir’s first-quarter growth rate is impressive not only in absolute terms but also when compared to the company’s performance in recent quarters. In Q4, Palantir posted 36% year-over-year growth, compared to revenue growth of 30%, 27%, and 21% in the preceding three quarters.
As of now, let’s hypothetically explore what it would take for PLTR to become the No. 1 company, reaching a market cap of over $4 trillion.
What Would It Take for PLTR Stock to Be Number 1?
To join the $4 trillion club, Palantir will need to support its valuation with sustained earnings growth. Palantir is currently valued at about $364 billion, meaning a $4 trillion market cap would be roughly 11 times its present size. This figure alone makes it clear that reaching such a milestone won’t be easy at all, especially since the company is still years away from hitting even a quarter of that goal: a $1 trillion market cap. In any case, let’s build a quick model with a few rough assumptions to better understand the scale of this goal.
Let’s assume that as Palantir’s business matures, it will trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35, which roughly in line with the current average among the Magnificent Seven. That would mean the company needs to generate approximately $114 billion in annual net income. Even with a more aggressive 40x multiple — similar to where NVDA currently trades — Palantir would still need to generate around $100 billion in net income.
Just as a reminder, Palantir reported an adjusted net income of $334.4 million in Q1, which annualizes to approximately $1.3 billion. To reach $114 billion, net income would need to increase by more than 87 times. For perspective, even AI darling NVDA hasn’t achieved that level of net income yet, despite growing the metric at a triple-digit rate in FY25. It’s also important to note that Palantir would need to significantly expand its revenue.
So, while Palantir may have significant growth potential, achieving a $4 trillion valuation would demand a massive leap in revenue, profitability, and scale. As previously noted, the government segment is solid but has limited growth potential. Therefore, Palantir should focus more on accelerating broad commercial adoption of AIP. And I’m referring not only to the U.S., where the company needs to keep winning Fortune 500 clients and landing large deals, but also to the importance of expanding its international presence. And the latest quarterly results don’t paint a promising picture on the latter, as international commercial revenue declined.
Palantir also needs to significantly expand its margins. In Q1, its GAAP net income margin stood at only 24%, which is relatively modest compared to leading software companies. However, margins are expected to expand as AIP adoption continues to grow. In addition, the company should maintain its competitive advantage in enterprise AI by consistently improving its product suite.
All Eyes on Palantir’s Q2 Results
Palantir is scheduled to release its Q2 earnings today after the market closes. Analysts project earnings of $0.14 per share, representing a 53.83% year-over-year increase, while revenue is expected to grow 38.54% year-over-year to $939.47 million. If the company beats revenue expectations, it would signal continued acceleration in growth. Investors will likely be watching for any updates to full-year revenue guidance, along with management’s commentary on the newly secured $10 billion Army contract and its impact on revenue.
What Do Analysts Expect For PLTR Stock?
Wall Street analysts have assigned Palantir stock a consensus “Hold” rating, which isn’t surprising considering its strong performance already in 2025. Of the 21 analysts covering PLTR stock, four rate it a “Strong Buy,” 13 recommend a “Hold,” one views it as a “Moderate Sell,” and three have issued a “Strong Sell” rating. PLTR stock currently trades at a steep premium to its mean price target of $114.39, based on Friday's closing price at $154.27.
