If you think Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) has been on a tear lately, you're not wrong.
The stock is up a staggering 128.09% year-to-date and a whopping 611.93% over the past 12 months. In July alone, it's gained another 23.28% — outpacing most AI peers and turning heads on Wall Street.
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This might not even be peak Palantir. While 2025 looks explosive, it's got stiff competition — from Palantir itself.
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During last year’s AI boom, an election year when Donald Trump became U.S. President, PLTR stock skyrocketed 356.15%. And back in 2023, it posted a jaw-dropping 168.70% gain.
Even its debut rally in 2020, another election year where Joe Biden won the presidential election, clocked in at 147.89%, outpacing its current YTD surge.
Yes, 2021 and 2022 were cold showers, with -22% and -65% returns, respectively. But when this stock gets hot, it gets hot — and right now, 2025 is playing catch-up.
What's driving the fire this time?
Palantir has significantly expanded its federal government work under the Trump administration, securing over $113 million in contracts since early January, including new deals with the Pentagon and Homeland Security. This figure excludes a recent $795 million Department of Defense contract.
The firm's steady presence in defense and commercial AI deployments continues to attract bullish bets, especially with the U.S. defense spending and budget overhauls spotlighting national security and infrastructure spending.
Still, investors wondering if they've missed the rally may find solace in history. Palantir has a habit of doubling — or tripling — in election years. But if the stock wants to beat its own best, it'll have to go even higher.
At the current pace, 2025 is shaping up to be great. But for Palantir, "great" has a surprisingly high bar.
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