Aucklanders should prepare for upheaval as politicians back faster changes to transport options in the city to meet steep targets for cuts to transport emissions
Auckland Council is backing faster moves to cut the use of private vehicles and expand funding for better public transport services in light of the big Climate Change Commission report.
In supporting a go-hard-and-go-early approach suggested by the Ministry of Transport, the council is toughening its own language around cutting private car use markedly in the next decade.
At the same time, deeper political arguments about how climate change policies will affect the poor in the city's outlying suburbs more than better off inner city dwellers with easy transport options came to the surface at a council committee meeting.
A ministry consultation paper Hikina te Kohupara says a 'shift' and 'avoid' strategy in which policies push people to public transport and out of their cars would be the most effective in cutting emissions, and the quickest approach. While it envisages a strong uptake of electric vehicles, it sees them as part of a much smaller national light vehicle fleet - perhaps as small as 2.1 million in total by 2050.
The ministry paper urges central and local government to "reconsider" planned roading investments, and the council could yet reallocate promised funding in its much heralded $31 billion 10-year transport package to bring forward "mode-shift accelerating projects".
One possible regulatory change could see government funding for local authorities linked to how they meet specific walking and cycling targets, or how projects advance more compact urban areas.
Mayor Phil Goff told councillors on Thursday there was no "painless" option and no time left for soft options to cut the transport emissions from Auckland, which represent a substantial portion of the country's transport emissions that in turn represent a major part of total emissions.
The council has already adopted targets for emissions cuts in its climate change policy (to halve Auckland's greenhouse gas emissions by 2030) and latest plan on transport projects (to cut projected rises in transport emissions by 13 percent by 2031) - but recognises it can only achieve so much and needs bold help from central government.
A council officials' paper examining the ministry's document says a simple change from fossil-fuelled cars to electric vehicles would not be enough. "Electrification of the fleet on its own is insufficient to meet Auckland's climate targets and must be combined with interventions to reduce demand for travel by private vehicles."
So, fewer cars, not just improved cars.
Councillor Chris Darby said if the needed emissions cuts Auckland had set and the Climate Change Commission was seeking were to be made, "There's going to be quite a lot of turmoil in the short-term if we are not going to have what will be significant catastrophe in the medium to long-term."
He warned his fellow councillors: "If you thought dealing with Covid was hard yakka, multiply it a thousand times."
While he argued against people finding reasons not to act boldly and quickly, other councillors worried that in coming out in support of the transport ministry's toughest approach to emissions cuts, the council might not be taking sufficient note of the impact on social equity and the risks to low-income Aucklanders.
Councillor Daniel Newman said too often decision-makers disguised the impacts of major policy changes on those least able to cope by "just raising it up to a very abstract level".
Getting people to stop using their cars, or upgrade to electric vehicles might be fine for some, and urging the use of public transport could work for those living close to services, but for many, change would be harsh.
"A Tesla costing $60,000 is not going to be possible for most constituents in suburban South Auckland."
Newman, and other councillors who spoke at the Environment and Climate Change Committee's debate, were concerned members of the public might not accept such stark changes to transport in Auckland without convincing communications and consultation.
"I think there could be a growing level of disconnect in the community between what is desirable from a policy perspective and the implications for people in their communities.... This is going to be hard and get harder," he said, noting some measures "offend notions of equity".
Councillor Desley Simpson said she worried how Auckland would pay for the major changes needed to achieve the ministry's suggested shifts. "I'm not convinced we can take Auckland with us yet."
Another councillor, Angela Dalton, said Auckland had to keep a 'just transition' as a priority when implementing emissions reduction measures.
"For low-income people, more work needs to be done around public transport equity... Transport poverty can force low income families into private car ownership, and into using loan sharks."
The environment committee chair, Richard Hills, said by endorsing the ministry's stance, the council would simply be advancing policies it had already approved through its climate and transport strategies. Public opinion surveys showed ratepayers wanted the council to address climate change.
"What we need is systems change. We have to put things in place so people can access the change that they need."
The officials' paper to councillors says the Auckland climate strategy Te Tāruke-ā-Tāwhiri shares the Government's overall goal of net zero carbon by 2050, but the Auckland approach wants a 50 percent cut against 2016 levels by 2030 and a 64 percent reduction in transport sector emissions.
"While Auckland Council is prioritising transport investments supporting mode shift, it requires stronger policy, legislative and budgetary settings from central government to make deep and rapid cuts to the region's transport emissions.
"This includes changes to regulatory and financial settings to accelerate mode shift, policies to fast-track the transition to low-emissions vehicles and land transport pricing and funding reform."
It said some policy signals by the Government to support "projects that add roading capacity and requirements for local government to accept out-of-sequence greenfield growth do not align with the urgent need to reduce transport emissions".
But the new Ministry of Transport paper recognised this and offered ways to address the "misalignment".
The size of the challenge for reducing Auckland's transport emissions is reflected in one part of the council officials' report. It says Auckland has grown the number of passenger rides on public transport from 59 million in 2009 to 100 million in 2019, but "the scale of mode shift required to support shared climate goals dwarves the successes of the past decade".
It says the ministry paper emphasises that available government funding needs to be targeted at public and active (walking, cycling) transport "rather than highway expansion".
"Central and local government have to reconsider planned investments in major urban highway and road expansion projects if they would induce more vehicle travel."
Since the ministry paper was written, the Government has cancelled the big Mill Rd expansion in South Auckland and a highway upgrade in the Bay of Plenty.
Auckland Council says a big extension in bus services in the region would need substantial extra money from the Government, and the process for applying for and winning approval for funding from the transport agency Waka Kotahi "are slow and do not support the urgency of action required".
Getting more buses and more routes would be crucial, requiring sustained improvements in non-peak and weekend periods, but Auckland Transport has indicated "only limited improvements" would be possible under its regional land transport plan.
Goff and a majority of councillors backed resolutions that would support the transport ministry's boldest approach to emissions reductions. "This is not a time to go soft. We have to make the hard decisions. The soft decisions no longer exist around climate change," the mayor said.
"This not about us. It's about the next generation and the generation after that."
