Paddy Jackson does not need reminding of his Ireland debut this week but inevitably it comes into focus as he once more fills the void left by Jonathan Sexton’s injury-enforced absence. It was four years ago at Murrayfield, where he will win cap No20 on Saturday, his first touch was a knock-on and his missed penalties proved costly in a 12-8 defeat in a match dominated by Ireland. It was also a significant moment in the end of Declan Kidney’s reign.
A lot has passed under the bridge since. Jackson had just turned 21 and in the intervening period he has continued his development at Ulster while, as Joe Schmidt pointed out when naming his team to face Scotland, he started Ireland’s first ever win in South Africa last summer, as well as the autumn triumph against Australia.
That said, it is hard not to escape the feeling that Sexton’s absence hangs over Jackson. Ireland, having recorded victories against South Africa, New Zealand and the Wallabies in 2016 – the first northern hemisphere team to do so in a calendar year since 2003 – are widely fancied for the tournament but Sexton is the northern hemisphere’s outstanding No10 at conducting his backline and his absence clearly blunts Ireland’s attack. While Scottish optimism in early February can often disappear by March, Vern Cotter’s side would appear to have genuine reason for it this year.
For Ireland, then, much rests on the shoulders of Jackson. He is effectively charged with keeping his side on track for the title by the time Sexton returns – most likely in week three against France – but Schmidt is confident he is up to the task.
“For us [Johnny has] probably played 82 minutes in the last eight Test matches, so it’s a real frustration,” Schmidt said. “But we’re still hopeful he can come back in and do that for us, but at the same time Paddy has done really well. He played all three Tests against South Africa, played against Australia, and it’s not like he hasn’t had good experience. There’s no one more frustrated than Johnny. He was incredibly motivated for this championship.”
Warren Gatland has this week expressed his concerns over Sexton’s fitness and whether his body can stand the strains of a Lions tour – he had concussion problems in last year’s Six Nations and a hamstring injury in the autumn – but when asked if there were fears over his long-term durability, Schmidt continued: “Not really. I don’t think there’s many players that don’t go through a period of injury and a little bit of bad luck. It was a very minor injury going into the Castres match and it just triggered an extension of that injury. It’s just for us getting him 100% fit before we get him back out there.”
Schmidt is boosted by the return of Sean O’Brien at openside flanker – particularly as Peter O’Mahony was ruled out on Wednesday – but Andrew Trimble has not recovered from a groin injury, allowing Keith Earls to take his place on the wing. Ian Keatley will cover fly-half while Tommy Bowe also features among the replacements and is in line for a first Test appearance since the 2015 World Cup defeat against Argentina.
With the hooker Niall Scannell set to make his Test debut off the bench there are seven Munster players in the matchday 23 ensuring a familiar feel with 13 of Scotland’s squad comprising Glasgow Warriors players and the two Pro12 sides recently having contested a fiery European Champions Cup contest at Scotstoun.
Among them is the Glasgow hooker Fraser Brown, who is selected in place of Ross Ford and alongside the tighthead Zander Fagerson, of whom big things are expected in the absence of WP Nel. Richie and Jonny Gray form the second row and in the backs Scotland are boosted by the return of Huw Jones, who scored two tries on his home debut against Australia in the autumn, at centre.
All eyes will also be on Finn Russell to see if the mercurial fly-half can continue his club form as Cotter looks to sign off before he is replaced by Gregor Townsend with a first top‑three finish since 2013, while ambitions may be set higher if victory against Ireland is followed by a first in Paris since 1999.
“We’ve continually been trying to improve. That’s the only thing you can do,” said Cotter, who has named the uncapped tighthead Simon Berghan on the bench. “The guys have a vision for the Six Nations. Whatever vision you have determines your behaviour.
“There are no guarantees in sport, we know that. But that desire we’ve seen for the last two seasons is still there. Can we win the whole thing? I think the trap is every year that Scotland get talked up. We are realistic. We know which teams are ranked ahead of us, we know what the rugby hierarchy is at the moment. It’s up to us to change that.”
Scotland team for Six Nations opener on Saturday 4 February
S Hogg; S Maitland, H Jones, A Dunbar, T Seymour; F Russell, G Laidlaw (capt); A Dell, F Brown, Z Fagerson, R Gray, J Gray, R Wilson, H Watson, J Strauss. Replacements R Ford, G Reid, S Berghan, T Swinson, J Barclay, A Price, D Weir, M Bennett.
Ireland
R Kearney; K Earls, G Ringrose, R Henshaw, S Zebo; P Jackson, C Murray; J McGrath, R Best (capt), T Furlong, I Henderson, D Toner, CJ Stander, S O’Brien, J Heaslip. Replacements N Scannell, C Healy, J Ryan, U Dillane, J van der Flier, K Marmion, I Keatley, T Bowe.
