What are the five key questions going into the season that need to be asked at Pac-12 football media days?
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– CFN Preview 2019: All 130 Team Previews
Pac-12 Team Previews, 5 Things To Know
North Cal | Oregon | Oregon State
Stanford | Washington | Washington State
South Arizona | Arizona State | Colorado
UCLA | USC | Utah
– 2019 CFN Pac-12 Preview
– Ranking The Pac-12 Coaches
– CFN All-Pac-12 Team & Top 30 Players
– CFN Pac-12 Team-By-Team Predictions
– Pac-12 Schedules
Pac-12 Media Days
July 24, Hollywood, CA
5. Q: How many games does Clay Helton have to win in 2019 to be the 2020 USC head football coach?
Clay Helton is only a year removed from winning the Pac-12 championship.
It took way too long to rise back up after being hammered way, way, way too hard for – to be simplistic about it – the Reggie Bush transgression of working with a marketing company, but in Helton’s first three seasons, he took over for Steve Sarkisian and got USC to the Pac-12 Championship, went to the Rose Bowl in his second year, and won the title in Year Three.
He’s a good guy – he’s not your normal self-important, I’m-curing-cancer attitude college football head coach – and he’s the type you want to see succeed. But there are certain places that you 1) can’t go 5-7, ever, 2) lose to your rival, 3) go 5-7 and lose to your rival when you’re rival is awful, and 4) go 5-7 and miss out on going bowling because you lost to your rival when your rival is awful.
The recruiting classes haven’t been USC-amazing, and there’s the fear that the guy from that rival program on the other side of town will have it all figured out in a hurry.
Making matters worse than the talent-level not quite being up-to-snuff and the rise of Chip Kelly’s UCLA program looming is the wild – and without any substance … yet- speculation that if ol’ Urban wants to get back in the game after spending time working in the Fox College Football world in LA, USC would be the one place that would check every box possible.
Considering the expectation from the base is to always be in the national championship picture, and Pac-12 titles and Rose Bowl appearances are always going to be followed with a “that was nice, but … “, how many games does Helton have to win?
Besides, “all of them.”
2018 was a rebuild year. Going with a 17-year-old starting quarterback – even one as talented as JT Daniels – was going to ensure a slew of rocky moments, especially considering the running game wasn’t in place to help the cause.
The hope was for Kliff Kingsbury to step in and make the offense amazing as the new coordinator – which would’ve been a disaster for Helton considering it was potentially a no-lose, next-coach-up situation for Kingsbury if the Trojans struggled to win despite a high-powered attack – but that obviously didn’t work, and now it’s former Texas Tech star QB Graham Harrell running the new offensive attack.
There’s plenty of young talent at the skill spots, the lines are at least experienced, and the hope has to be for the youth movement of last year to pay off big. However …
Fresno State, Stanford, at BYU, Utah, at Washington, at Notre Dame. By any reasonable standard, 5-1 would be phenomenal to kick things off, and 4-2 would be terrific, but reasonable standards and USC don’t always go hand in hand.
It’s not like the schedule gets a whole lot easier, with three road games in a four-week stretch, to go along with home dates against Arizona, Oregon and UCLA. Considering the Colorado game is on the road, and there’s no Oregon State to face, there isn’t one 1000% sure-thing win on the slate.
This is an 8-4/9-3ish team with a 7-5 schedule – but that could be said for most teams in the Pac-12 South other than Utah, and it has to play at USC.
Best guess answer? As long as it looks like Helton and USC are in for a massive 2020 with most of the young offensive starts about to take things to another level, and as long as there’s a decent bowl game and a win over UCLA, he’ll probably be fine with eight wins.
Seven? Uh-oh. Nine? Fine …
As long as Chip Kelly’s team isn’t playing for the Pac-12 Championship.
NEXT: Is Mario Cristobal ready to be awesome?
4. Q: Is Mario Cristobal ready to be awesome?
Admittedly it’s anecdotal, but suggest that Oregon has the talent and experience to potentially come up with a gigantic season, and expect an instant comment about how it would be, except the head coach might not be ready or primetime.
Mario Crisobal’s Sun Belt-conference-winning season at FIU was all the way back in 2010, but the program screwed up by letting him go after a 3-9 season following two straight bowl appearances. As a top assistant at Alabama and Oregon, he was more than ready to slide on into the head coaching gig.
However, it wasn’t a great look when the Oregon players lobbied for him to be the head man after Willie Taggart left, and his team was a total dud out of the gate in the 38-28 loss to Boise State in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl.
Throw in the total collapse in a 38-31 loss to Stanford last season, and the inexplicable 44-15 loss to Arizona, and there’s good reason to question just how good Cristobal will be with this loaded team.
As tough as it’s going to be, though, think long haul with the Oregon program.
This year’s team is more than good enough to win the Pac-12 title. Getting QB Justin Herbert back for another year is just a part of it. The team is loaded with pro prospects across the board, young talent seemingly ready to fill in the gaps, and best of all for the program, a ton of positive momentum.
Cristobal can really, really recruit. Start with that, and again, it’s about the bigger picture for the program. Coming up with a top ten-caliber haul is par for the course in the SEC, but in the Pac-12, a class like Cristobal just landed can be a gamechanger.
Combine a few big wins with the recruiting prowess, and look out. He’ll get his change right away.
The game against Auburn to kick-off the season in Arlington will be one of those first weekend showcase moments everyone will pay attention to. Look amazing and beat the SECer in a big moment, and Cristobal’s status goes through the roof. Lose ugly, and with road games at Stanford, Washington, USC and Arizona State to go, and the let the piling on begin.
Either way, the talent is still coming in. No matter what, 2019 should be just the start of big things for the Ducks.
NEXT: Will Chip Kelly/Kevin/Sumlin/Herm Edwards come up with an appreciably stronger second season?
3. Q: Will Chip Kelly/Kevin/Sumlin/Herm Edwards come up with an appreciably stronger second season?
Considering he had never been a college football head coach and was out of the game entirely since 2008, Herm Edwards did a fine job in his first season at Arizona State.
This should be better than a 7-6 program, but Edwards being able to tread water wasn’t bad considering ASU hasn’t won more than seven games since 2014 and lost in its last three bowl appearances.
That might all change right away considering Edwards went with a slew of underclassmen across the board as last year went on, and he’s got a great mix of talents returning to be a sneaky-good player in the South race.
With seven games against teams that didn’t go bowling last season, and with three of the last four games at home, the schedule isn’t bad. However, among those teams that didn’t go bowling are USC, UCLA and Arizona.
That 7-6 season by Edwards at ASU looked a whole lot better with a gut-punch win over Arizona to close out the regular season.
It was a strange year for Sumlin, with a power-outage blowout loss to Houston, a season-opening clunker against BYU, and losses to mediocre UCLA and USC teams – and a 44-15 win over Oregon.
There wasn’t any consistency in the 5-7 campaign, but he’s got a far stronger team coming back. Unlike the beginning of last year, the offensive line looks like a potential positive, some nice defensive players are in place, and QB Khalil Tate has a year in the system.
Arizona is going bowling this year, but can the program become the hot thing in the South with an explosive offensive system? The pieces are there to do it.
And then there’s Chip Kelly and UCLA.
Kelly’s grand experiment will either prove to blow up huge as the program finally becomes a national player again, or it might be a total disaster if his fit-a-type recruiting doesn’t blend with the veterans in place.
It all started to work as last year went on. Throw UCLA into the same bucket as Nebraska – two programs with two great head coaches who struggled early, but with offenses that looked ready to explode.
The Bruins might have lost four of their last five games in a brutal season, but they beat USC, hung around in shootouts against Arizona State and Stanford, and on the year, lost four games by a touchdown or less.
One 3-9 season? Okay … it was a total rebuild. Now go bowling and start doing all that Chip Kelly stuff.
NEXT: Will there ever be a good non-conference win?
2. Q: Will there ever be a good non-conference win?
Arizona State beat Michigan State. That was about it.
Okay, so Colorado beat Nebraska and Cal took care of North Carolina, but neither game moved any needle.
Oregon beat the poor old Spartans, too, in the Redbox Bowl, and Washington State got by Iowa State in the Alamo, but …
Oregon State gave up 77 to Ohio State. Stanford got whacked by Notre Dame. Arizona wet itself against BYU and Houston. USC got thumped by Texas and couldn’t get past Notre Dame. UCLA lost to freakin’ Cincinnati and got thumped by Oklahoma. Worst of all, Washington the league’s standard-bearer, lost the opener to Auburn.
The problem wasn’t just that the Pac-12 lost all of those games against the good non-conference teams on the schedule; the problem was that it wasn’t a shock.
Expectations and national perceptions are so low, it’s just assumed that the Pac-12 is locked in at No. 5 on the list of Power Five conferences. But it’s not like the league is that bad, and it’s about to be a whole lot stronger this season.
Everyone will beat everyone else up in conference play. The South will be a weekly bag of wacky with all six teams possessing the potential – yes, include Colorado if the offensive stars stay healthy – to beat anyone else.
Washington-Stanford-Oregon-Wsahington State, and to a lesser extent if there’s an offense, Cal. No one’s coming out of the North without taking several body blows.
Parity makes for a fun and exciting Pac-12 season, but throw in some spicy non-conference wins to get America interested before or after dark, and the league can go from a relative afterthought to a high-rising star in a hurry.
It might just take one.
If Oregon beats Auburn in the season-opener in Arlington, TX – game on.
That would be huge, but if the Pac-12 really wants to make a statement to get people buzzing, imagine the hype if UCLA has a coming out party with a gigantic upset over the visiting Oklahoma Sooners.
Arizona gets a shot at Texas Tech. Arizona State goes to Michigan State. Cal goes to Ole Miss. Colorado hosts Nebraska. Oregon State gets Oklahoma State up in Corvallis. Stanford and USC get Notre Dame.
Pac-12, just win a few of those. Become a speedbump, and there’s a big problem considering the league has way too many can’t-help-could-REALLY-hurt games.
If Washington State beats Houston in Houston … fine. But the Pac-12’s Cougars could absolutely lose that.
Stanford could absolutely lose at UCF. USC could absolutely lose to Fresno State. Utah could absolutely get stunned by Northern Illinois. UCLA could absolutely lose (again) to Cincinnati on the road or at home against San Diego State.
And heaven help the conference if Hawaii somehow wins both home games against Arizona and Oregon State to open things up.
Lose the big ones, and once again …
NEXT: Where’s the College Football Playoff contender?
1. Q: Where’s the College Football Playoff contender?
Forget not being invited to the 2018 College Football Playoff party, the Pac-12 wasn’t even a a consideration.
The highest-ranked Pac-12 team in the final College Football Playoff rankings last year? Washington, and it was No. 9.
There you go, Pac-12. Your best team and standard-bearer was ranked behind two SEC teams, two Big Ten teams, an ACC team, an pseudo-ACC team (Notre Dame), and a freaking Group of Five program.
Three Pac-12 teams made the final top 25. Compare that to eight from the SEC, four from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12, and two from the Mountain West.
To be fair, the ACC only had two teams ranked in the final CFP Top 25, but no one really cares considering one of them ended up destroying Alabama for the national title. And that’s the point. The Pac-12 needs its one of ones to go all Clemson and elevate the entire league.
The Pac-12 wasn’t in the CFP team photo in 2017, either, but USC, Washington and Stanford were all in the top 13. Of course, in 2016, Washington got in and lost to Alabama. Even then, the Pac-12 caught a mega-break that Oklahoma went 10-2 and that the Big Ten champion – Penn State – had two losses.
It’s hard to get into the four-team playoff when Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State are sucking up so much of the oxygen in the room, but that’s sort of the point.
The other Power Five conferences have at least one team that you could predict to make the CFP, and it seems obvious. Suggest that, say, Washington will get there this season, or Oregon, or even USC, and you’ll come across as trying to be wacky.
It’ll happen. Oregon got to the first College Football Playoff National Championship, and had Washington State beaten Washington in the snowy Apple Cup last season, it would’ve had a chance to knock on the door had there been a few upsets in the other Power Five championship games.
It’s probably not going to be this year, but eventually the Pac-12 will swing around and be a major player again.
In the meantime, enjoy what should be a whale of a conference season.
Pac-12 Team Previews, 5 Things To Know
North Cal | Oregon | Oregon State
Stanford | Washington | Washington State
South Arizona | Arizona State | Colorado
UCLA | USC | Utah
