Every year, regardless of who is coaching England, the same thing happens. The management select their squad, finalise their Six Nations preparations and then watch, powerless, as their best-laid plans collapse quicker than you can shout “Nurse!”. As Stuart Lancaster awaits the latest news from his medical staff he again resembles a man strapped to a railway line who has just heard the distant hum of a locomotive.
It will be of scant consolation that Scotland, Ireland and Wales have their own injury issues. Despite the presence of four English sides in the European quarter-final draw, this was as disappointing a club weekend as Lancaster and his assistants have experienced for a while. What price England’s prospects of world domination when Northampton, their most physical club side, containing numerous Test hopefuls, can be so easily flattened at home? How many centres get picked to start for England against Wales after defending as shakily as Luther Burrell did opposite the opponent he will have to subdue at the Millennium Stadium? Who would want to be England’s management at this precise moment?
Personnel-wise, alarm bells are certainly ringing. With Owen Farrell, Geoff Parling, Tom Wood and Kyle Eastmond all being assessed and Manu Tuilagi, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Ben Morgan, Ed Slater and Ben Foden already definitely out, Lancaster is faced with precisely the kind of awkward selection dilemmas he could do without as he seeks to accelerate smoothly towards the World Cup.
Barring some swift recoveries, his match-day 23 to face Wales may include the recently-suspended George Kruis, the uncapped Graham Kitchener, a hooker in Dylan Hartley who is now publicly suggesting he is a marked man with referees, a 36-year-old No8 in Nick Easter who has not played Test rugby since 2011, yet another untried centre combination and a fly-half certain to divide everyone’s opinion.
Whatever happens, the words “Danny” and “Cipriani” will continue to trail Lancaster around wherever he goes. If Farrell, as seems possible, is ruled out, England have a straight choice to make on the bench: Cipriani or Stephen Myler. The Northampton player, subject to training ground form this week, continues to be ranked ahead of Cipriani as far as England are concerned. He would also have started against the All Blacks last June had Northampton not been in the Premiership final the previous weekend.
In the end it is a judgment call; which of the two would supporters prefer to see coming off the bench if George Ford has to limp off after two minutes in Cardiff? Which of them is more likely to help England win a World Cup? To those answering “the boy Danny” to both questions, Lancaster is entitled to point out that Cipriani’s goal-kicking statistics this season are hovering around the 70% mark, lower than his rivals.
Myler’s tactical kicking is also good but let’s be frank, who has the little bit of x-factor that all good teams need? Who has already proved in the Test arena – against Ireland in 2008 – that he can transform a game at the highest level? Who would Wales least like to come up against, in terms of creating the unexpected? The majority of the country – with the exception of Northamptonshire – would plump for Cipriani, a wiser man on and off the field these days.
Which makes life even trickier for Lancaster. One feverish conspiracy theorist reckoned Cipriani was promoted to the senior squad only to avoid the risk of him having a great game for the Saxons against Ireland Wolfhounds in Cork on Friday and embarrassing the England management. It appeared a classic case of adding two plus two and ending up with an implausible 10 but Farrell’s injury has thrown everyone’s calculations up in the air.
What kind of message would it send out if England go to Wales with a safety-first squad and lose without firing a shot? As Europe has shown lately, English forwards are not entirely immune to a well-planned ambush.
In addition to consistent “Steady Eddies’ – to quote Sir Clive Woodward – they will also need players capable of changing games, both now and later this year. The latest injuries are unfortunate and ill-timed but, amid the wreckage, could there yet be the odd blessing in disguise?
Women in the middle
As well as European business, last weekend also included a touchline stint at the under-18 academy match between Exeter Chiefs and Saracens at Topsham RFC. The Chiefs youngsters beat the previously unbeaten Saracens 12-8 and there were players on both sides of whom we will be hearing more. In addition there was a commanding performance from the referee, Sara Cox, who is accelerating up the whistle-blowing ranks having already taken charge of women’s internationals and men’s seven tournaments. How long will it be before a men’s Six Nations international is refereed by a woman? Sooner than you think would be my guess.
One to watch: Ireland Wolfhounds v England Saxons
The A team game in Cork is fascinating for all kinds of reasons, not least because England’s coaches reckon this may be the strongest squad they have ever put out. If that does not get the Wolfhounds’ hackles up nothing will. Attention, inevitably, will be focussed on Sam Burgess as he makes his representative union debut but this is also a big game for Henry Slade, Christian Wade, Joe Simpson and Dave Ewers, among others.
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