It could be a big 2020 campaign for 49ers’ second-year wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Retired left tackle Joe Staley told the Sacramento Bee he thinks Samuel can be the greatest receiver in the NFL. That would take some doing, but the numbers in the second half of the receiver’s rookie year show the path to that coming to fruition.
A big second year likely means Samuel goes over on most of his pre-season player props. FoxBet.com provided some over/unders for the former second-round pick, including receptions, receiving yards and rushing yards. We created one for targets as well.
Here is our pick for each:
Over or under: 84.5 targets
Pick: Over 84.5 targets
The path to Samuel going over 84.5 targets is pretty simple. He hit 81 last season despite averaging just 4.6 per game over his first seven. In his final eight contests, Samuel averaged 6.1 targets. That’s probably closer to what he’ll see on a consistent basis in 2020, especially if rookie Brandon Aiyuk takes awhile to get up to speed in the offense.
Over or under: 59.5 receptions
Pick: Over 59.5 receptions
This is another matter of sheer volume. Perhaps Aiyuk, George Kittle and Kendrick Bourne steal enough looks that Samuel’s production stays static or hovers below where he finished as a rookie. For Samuel to get to 60 catches, he’d need to average 3.75 per game. He finished last year at 3.8 per game, and put up 4.4 over his final eight. If his 2020 production lands in between those two marks he should be good for more than 59.5 catches.
Over or under: 850.5 receiving yards
Pick: Over 850.5 receiving yards
Even if Samuel’s targets and catches dip some, he should see his yardage total remain above that 850.5 mark. Even with a slow start to his rookie year, Samuel’s 16-game averages stayed well above this number for most of the year. His second season in the offense will afford him more opportunities down the field, which should inflate his yards-per-reception some. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Samuel surpass the 1000-yard mark, so 850.5 should be doable.
Over or under: 149.5 rushing yards
Pick: Under 149.5 rushing yards
Samuel was a monster in the run game last year, averaging 11.36 yards per carry on 14 attempts. After a record-setting performance when Samuel ripped off 53 rushing yards, the most ever for a wide receiver in the Super Bowl, teams may adjust to the 49ers’ use of their receiver as a runner. The other thing that factors into this is Samuel’s increased value as a receiver now that Emmanuel Sanders has exited. Additionally, rookie wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has the tools to be effective on jet sweeps and end arounds as well, and could eat into Samuel’s carries. Perhaps there’s another big year on the ground in store for Samuel, but signs point to a statistical regression there while he sees an uptick elsewhere.
