Jan. 17--Not many teams need an outfield upgrade more than the White Sox, whose outfielders collectively posted a 3.2 WAR (wins above replacement) in 2015 -- which ranked 26th of 30 teams.
Incumbent left fielder Melky Cabrera projects to post a 1.1 WAR in 646 plate appearances, according to Steamer's 2016 projections per Fangraphs. Avisail Garcia, the Sox's other corner outfielder, projects as a 0.3 WAR player in 584 plate appearances.
After adding projected improvements at third base with Todd Frazier and second with Brett Lawrie, adding an outfielder seems like a logical next step.
The Sox have been linked to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for much of the offseason. And coming off a 6.7 WAR season, according to Fangraphs, Cespedes, 30, could provide just that for the 2016 Sox. But at what cost?
A four- or five-year deal that would line up with the four years of control remaining on the contracts of ace Chris Sale and first baseman Jose Abreu could maximize the team's competitive window.
Below is a look at Cespedes' value projects over the next five years, using Steamer's 2016 projections and Fangraphs' assumptions on aging as a baseline.
Fangraphs assumes the cost of 1 WAR (which starts at $8 million in 2016) will go up 5 percent each season. Next, it assumes production on an aging curve. Through age 27, a player's WAR projects to increase by 0.25 per season, plateau over his age 28-30 seasons and decrease by 0.5 between ages 31-37.
YEAR ... AGE ... WAR ... $WAR ... VALUE
2016 ... 30 ... 3.0 ... $8.0 ... $24M
2017 ... 31 ... 2.5 ... $8.4 ... $21M
2018 ... 32 ... 2.0 ... $8.8 ... $17.6M
2019 ... 33 ... 1.5 ... $9.3 ... $13.95M
2020 ... 34 ... 1.0 ... $9.7 ... $9.7M
By these conservative projections, less than half of his peak performance last season, Cespedes projects to be a 10-WAR player worth $86.25 million over the next five seasons, meaning a five-year deal worth $90 million would represent approximate fair market value. If the White Sox were able to pull off a three- to five-year deal with Cespedes, they could find themselves hoping to get the best out of the first three years -- which would line up with their competitive window.
