MIAMI — Heading into 2022, Florida will again be a hotbed for political activity. But this time with a once-a-decade flair.
Not only will Florida land in the national spotlight as Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio try to fend off Democratic challenges and the Republican-led state Legislature redraws the state’s political lines in a process that could have huge ramifications for Congress as the GOP attempts to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
But other political activity on the marquee will include statewide races for the Florida Cabinet, ballot measures that could remake Florida’s multibillion-dollar gaming industry and an annual legislative session that DeSantis is poised to use to push hard-line policy issues, many of which are expected to mobilize conservative voters.
Florida Democrats are expected to put up a fight at the state level, but after devastating losses in the last two election cycles, they are facing an uphill battle in 2022. Their efforts, however, could have impact at the national level as Republicans try to flip one or both chambers of Congress back to the Republican Party.
Florida’s race for governor
Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist and Miami state Sen. Annette Taddeo are the top three Democrats who are running to unseat Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2022 midterm election.
Before they can face off with DeSantis in the November election, the trio of Democrats need to vie for the Democratic nomination in the Aug. 23 primary. So far, there is no clear front-runner in the Democratic race.
As Democrats compete for the nomination, DeSantis raised more than $60 million in the last year. In November alone, DeSantis raised $6 million through his campaign and political committee, more than the combined $800,000 Fried, Crist and Taddeo raised in the same month.
While DeSantis trounced Democrats in the money race, Democrats are also coming to terms with how to effectively message and do enough outreach to voters to make gains in a state that has been under Republican control for decades. When Crist served as governor from 2007 to 2011, he was a member of the Republican Party, and his term was sandwiched by Jeb Bush and Rick Scott.
As Democrats come to terms with those questions, DeSantis’ national star is rising and the perception that he could be plotting a potential 2024 White House run is growing. But before any national considerations, DeSantis must first win reelection.
U.S. Senate seat up for grabs
Rubio, a two-term Republican, is likely facing off against U.S. Rep. Val Demings, an Orlando Democrat seen as the party’s best hope to get a big win during the 2022 midterms.
Democrats initially urged Demings to run for governor against DeSantis, but she ultimately opted to run for U.S. Senate. She faces a primary challenge from Ken Russell, a member of the Miami City Commission, but Demings is the heavy favorite and is expected to have huge money and structural campaign advantages.
The general election campaign will get a huge national spotlight.
Not only does Rubio have a national footprint after running for president in 2016, but the Senate is currently a 50-50 split, with a slight advantage for Democrats because Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tie-breaking vote.
National organizations like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which is chaired by Scott, will be fully engaged in the race as both parties try to emerge from 2022 with control of the Senate.
Knocking off Rubio would not only be a feather in the cap for Democrats, but it would make it easier for them to hold their slight majority in the Senate. Senate Democratic incumbents in states like Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, are facing tough races, meaning a pickup in a state like Florida could offer Democrats more flexibility.
Rubio is seen as having an advantage in the race. The Cook Political report has the race “lean” Republican, while the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has the race “likely” Republican.
Rubio easily won reelection in 2016, trouncing former Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy 52%-44% in a race that was never seen as close.
Redistricting
The Republican-dominated Legislature must complete the once-a-decade task of redistricting, or the process of redrawing the state’s congressional and legislative district lines to reflect population changes in the 2020 Census.
The process happens at all levels of government, but the Florida Legislature’s focus on congressional and state legislative lines will get much of the attention, and must be completed by the end of Florida’s 2022 legislative session in March.
Through the end of 2021, the process has been devoid of the sort of political and legal fireworks that marked the last map-drawing process in 2012. During the last redistricting cycle, courts found that Republican political operatives swayed the process, which was in violation of the Fair Districts amendments. Those are anti-gerrymandering provisions voters added to the Florida Constitution in 2010.
Both the House and Senate unveiled draft maps before the beginning of the 2022 session to mixed reviews.
There was little pushback even from Democrats to Senate draft maps, which include two congressional drafts and two for the Florida Senate. Each map would give Republicans a slight boost but Democratic-aligned redistricting groups didn’t voice much objection to them.
Those groups, however, have teed off on one of the House’s two congressional drafts, which would remake much of the Orlando area, including cutting up the district currently held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy. She announced on Dec. 20 that she would be retiring from Congress. The maps for the state House, a chamber overwhelmingly dominated by Republicans, have not received as much pushback.
Both redistricting committees expect to select their preferred maps by early in the 2022 session, and advance those proposals as formal pieces of legislation. The House and Senate each approve new maps for their districts. Both chambers draw proposed Congressional maps.
By the end of session, they will have to work out potential differences, and pass a new congressional map, which must get DeSantis’ approval, while the legislative maps go directly to the Florida Supreme Court for approval and don’t require the governor’s consent.
Gaming ballot measures
Florida voters could reshape the state’s multibillion-dollar industry this November if proposals sought by out-of-state gambling giants make it to the ballot.
If the ballot measures are approved, they would undercut the Seminole Tribe’s monopoly on casino games in Florida and help Las Vegas Sands, FanDuel and DraftKings command a piece of the lucrative Florida gaming market.
Pending approval by the Department of State are two options: One measure would allow existing card rooms to be converted into Las Vegas-style casinos if they are located 130 miles from any of the seven casinos owned by the Seminole Tribe of Florida.
The proposal entitled “Limited Authorization of Casino Gaming” would allow businesses with active card room licenses as of January 1, 2022 to offer casino games such as baccarat, chemin de fer, roulette, craps, blackjack and slot machines if they are “more than 130 miles on a straight line from all Tribal Facilities.” That proposal is pushed by Florida Voters in Charge, a political committee backed by Las Vegas Sands. It targets North Florida for the gaming expansion.
The other initiative would remove the Seminole Tribe’s monopoly on sports betting operations, allowing bets to originate at all Florida pari-mutuels, professional sports stadiums, and anywhere else in the state using a mobile sports betting platform, not just those on tribal land. Titled “Sports and Event Betting,” it is pushed by a political committee bankrolled by international sports betting giants FanDuel and DraftKings.
Florida Cabinet races
Three statewide positions that oversee roughly half a dozen state agencies will be on the ballot this year: The races for agriculture commissioner, attorney general and chief financial officer.
While not the most high-profile races, the elected officials in those seats oversee a plethora of important state offices and agencies, among them, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, the Florida Department of Highway and Motor Vehicles, the Florida Department of Revenue and the State Board of Executive Clemency.
Attorney General Ashley Moody and Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, both of them Republicans, as of mid-December are not facing challenges. But Democrats are expected to put up a fight next year.
Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, the lone statewide elected Democrat, is challenging DeSantis in the governor’s race. Armed with millions of dollars and an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, Senate President Wilton Simpson is running to flip that seat for Republicans. No Democrat has filed to replace Fried as of December 12.
Another FL-20 Democratic primary
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won the South Florida 20th Congressional District Democratic primary by five votes in November 2021.
Because the seat is overwhelmingly Democratic, she is likely to easily win the January 11 general election and represent the district in Congress. The seat was left open by the death of longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings.
However, she will have to quickly face voters once again during the 2022 midterms when she will be on the ballot running for reelection.
The general election will likely set up a rematch with former Broward County commissioners Dale Holness and Barbara Sharief, both of whom ran in the special election primary and represented Cherfilus-McCormick’s top competitors.
Lawmakers are in the process of redrawing the state’s congressional lines as part of the once-a-decade redistricting process, but the entire region is overwhelmingly Democratic, which means the seat will almost certainly remain nearly unwinnable for Republicans.
County Hall
On Aug. 23, Miami-Dade County voters will have the chance to fill five seats on the County Commission held by incumbents who have served as long as 28 years but will be forced to retire by a 2012 charter amendment imposing term limits.
The new limit of two consecutive four-year terms passed overwhelmingly but only applied to time in office after the 2012 election. In 2020, the first wave of term-limit retirements forced the exits of five commissioners on the 13-seat board that holds elections for odd-numbered districts on presidential years and even-numbered districts on gubernatorial years.
“It’s going to give, finally, an opportunity for us to break the chains from the incumbents who have held these seats forever,” said Natalie Alatriste, president of Miami-Dade’s chapter of the League of Women Voters, an advocacy group. “It’s a chance for people to recognize the importance of local government.”
In 2022, the remaining veteran incumbents who were in office in 2012 are required to leave: Chairman Jose “Pepe” Diaz (in office since 2002), Sally Heyman (2002), Jean Monestime (2010), Rebeca Sosa (2001), and the most senior commissioner, Javier Souto (1993). Another incumbent, Danielle Cohen Higgins, will face her first election in August. Last December, the commission appointed her to the seat vacated by then-commissioner Daniella Levine Cava upon her election as county mayor in 2020.
Miami-Dade’s Aug. 23 primary is a non-partisan contest for all candidates, with filing deadlines in June. Candidates can win outright with more than 50% of the vote; otherwise, the top two finishers face a runoff on Nov. 8.
———
(Miami Herald staff writer Douglas Hanks contributed to this report.)
