Are we doing this? Really doing this?
Sigh, fine. Open the airplane door and let’s jump out. And hope the blue-and-white parachute opens.
Sports Illustrated is doing the most dangerous thing college football prognosticators can do. We are picking Penn State to win the national championship.
O.K., it’s not as rash as picking Kent State or Kennesaw State. This is at least in the realm of possibility. After all, Penn State lives in the toniest section of the high-rent district, where the elites compete for national titles.
It’s just that a repair truck is routinely parked outside the Nittany Lions’ mansion. There’s perpetually a problem inside—leaky plumbing, crumbling drywall, a crack in the foundation. It’s always something.
Now it’s time to believe the repair work is done. The holes have been patched. The faucets work. The stars and players and coaches and schedule have aligned. James Franklin, armed with his best coaching staff, will win big games. Drew Allar, surrounded by his best offensive talent, will make big throws. New receivers will get open and make crucial catches. Veteran defenders will make the vital tackles. Experienced kickers will make clutch kicks.
Maybe.
“We definitely need to get over that hump,” Allar said in July.
It’s been 39 years since Penn State won a natty—almost as long as the drought Georgia broke in 2021 at 41 years. Since the Nittany Lions upset Miami in the Fiesta Bowl to win the 1986 title, 19 other programs have been crowned champions—a group that includes Colorado, Georgia Tech, Washington and Tennessee. Even Notre Dame, whose fans act as though Rockne was the coach the last time the Fighting Irish won it all, have a more recent title than Penn State.
Yeah, the Nittany Lions were screwed out of at least a share of a crown in 1994. They were 6–0 and ranked No. 1 when they beat Ohio State by 49 points—and dropped to No. 2, behind Nebraska. The following week, Penn State had Indiana down 35–14 and gave up 15 meaningless points in the final two minutes—including a Hail Mary touchdown with no time left—and fell further behind the Cornhuskers in first-place votes. The damage was done. Both teams finished undefeated, and Nebraska won the hardware.
But there is no rewriting history on that front—the streak is the streak, dating to a time when Joe Paterno still had a quarter century left in his Penn State tenure. Since then, the Nittanies have had nine seasons with at least 11 wins—so many victories, so little to show for it.
The program—and Franklin in particular—are now prisoners of their own success. He’s won 101 games and has a .706 winning percentage in 11 seasons at Penn State, with only a 2020–21 COVID-era blip interrupting a string of very good seasons since ’16.
Franklin has deservedly earned a lot of money as a consistent winner and deservedly taken a lot of heat for an abysmal record against the best competition. He’s 22–5 the last three seasons against Big Ten competition, which is a better winning percentage across three seasons in that league than Paterno ever had. He’s also 4–20 against Top 10 opponents and 1–10 against eternal nemesis Ohio State. The 53-year-old is banging his shaved head against a scarlet-and-gray ceiling.
Eventually, people who accomplish a lot become viewed through the lens of what they haven’t done yet. LeBron James, Peyton Manning, Phil Mickelson—they were all transcendent talents that took time to check the “champion” box on the résumé. They labored under the “Can’t Win the Big One” tag—until they won The Big One, and then that burden was gone forever.
Franklin feels close. Closer than he’s ever been. If not now …
Via team culture and NIL dollars, Penn State followed what Michigan and Ohio State did the previous two years before winning the national title: it retained a lot of veteran standouts who could have gone to the NFL. Chief among them: Allar, the stellar running back tandem of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, defensive linemen Dani Dennis-Sutton and Zane Durant and safety Zakee Wheatley. Additions were made at the chronic weak spot of wide receiver, with transfers from Syracuse (Trebor Pena) and USC (Kyron Hudson) expected to make instant impacts.
And Franklin has continued to upgrade his coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki juiced up the offense last year, and now Jim Knowles arrives with a $3 million salary to improve the defense. Swiping him from Ohio State was a direct attack on the team Penn State has not been able to beat.
Now it’s just a matter of making the biggest plays in the biggest games. The ones where the Nittany Lions have fallen short.
It was the brutal play-calling at the goal line last season against Ohio State. It was the 1-for-16 third-down nightmare against the Buckeyes in 2023. It was the 3.2 yards per attempt in ’23 at home against Michigan. It was the infamous fourth-and-5 run up the middle against Ohio State in ’18. It was Allar’s back-foot interception in the final minute of a tie game against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal last year.
“Our process has been working, but we definitely need to find different ways to come out with different results in those games,” Allar said. “And I think for us, at least me specifically, it’s just about execution from a player standpoint. In my career, we haven’t really been blown out of the water by any team. So it’s really just about finding those areas to make one or two more plays throughout those games.”
A play call. A catch. A blitz pickup. An open-field tackle. Make a few more of those, and Penn State’s recent history goes from good to great.
Despite a serial inability to make those plays when they have to be made, the bandwagon is filling up. Penn State has become a trendy pick, in part because there are significant questions about everyone else.
Texas is turning to a relatively inexperienced quarterback, no matter what his last name is. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Alabama have completely untested starting QBs. Georgia has a major question mark at that position. Clemson, like Penn State, has a third-year starter at QB who still has to make progress.
Pretty much every coach in the county would trade rosters with Penn State, just to have that much experienced talent. But this is August, when everything is still on paper. The proving ground will be in State College, Pa., on Sept. 27, when Oregon visits. And in Iowa City on Oct. 18. And, most of all, in Columbus, Ohio, on Nov. 1.
It’s time to jump out of the airplane, pull the ripcord and see what happens. Maybe this time, Penn State lands on its feet.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Our Most Dangerous Prediction: Penn State Will Win the CFP Title.
