Oscar Health Inc (NYSE:OSCR) just became one of Wall Street's buzziest policy trades. With ACA (Affordable Care Act) subsidy chatter swirling ahead of a possible government shutdown, the tech-driven insurer is drawing Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS) style moonshot comparisons — and short sellers may be sitting on a powder keg.
Track OSCR stock here.
With a short interest around 25% and a relatively thin float, Oscar Health has all the hallmarks of a HIMS-style setup—where headline catalysts can trigger rapid, outsized moves in the stock. HIMS stock spiked 45% in early May 2025 after announcing a partnership with Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) to distribute the weight-loss drug Wegovy via its telehealth platform, highlighting how a single high-profile collaboration can trigger a rapid, headline-driven rally.
Related: Hims & Hers Stock’s 100% Surge Is Squeezing Shorts And It Might Just Be Getting Started
Policy Tailwinds Meet Growth Runway
Oscar's fortunes are tightly tethered to the ACA marketplace, with over 80% of its revenue tied to individual plans. Subsidies have fueled enrollment growth north of 40% this year, helping the company reaffirm its $9.2–$9.3 billion revenue outlook — up a striking 50% year over year.
CEO Mark Bertolini has long argued subsidies can't just vanish without destabilizing the system, making extension odds stronger than the market fears.
On Capitol Hill, bipartisan talks are brewing around a short-term fix that couples subsidy extensions with fraud and waste reforms. If subsidies hold, Oscar's profitability path into 2026 looks far sturdier, with bundled care programs boosting efficiency and a fast-expanding Hispanic member base adding to its growth engine.
OSCR Short Squeeze Setup
The technicals now look tailor-made for a squeeze. Oscar has been above $14 since August, with the RSI (relative strength index) at 62.14 and the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicator bullish.
Short interest is at 24.73%, while Sept. 19 volume spiked to four times the average. Traders are laser-focused on $25 as the breakout trigger.
Risks remain — medical loss ratios are inching higher and subsidy failure could sting — but at 0.8x 2026 sales versus UnitedHealth's 1.2x, Oscar looks like a high-beta play with a policy kicker.
With shorts still hanging on and ACA headlines in flux, Oscar's $25 breakout line could spark a moonshot. If policy whispers turn into concrete headlines, OSCR could replicate the HIMS pattern — delivering a fast, headline-driven spike for short-squeeze hunters.
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