There is reason for optimism in India’s battle against the COVID-19 pandemic. Daily new coronavirus cases have dipped to a nine-month low. There were 10,929 new cases reported in the previous 24 hours on Saturday morning. Though the latest numbers on Monday show a slight rise at 11,451, the key cause for optimism is that the country’s active case load stood at 1,46,950 cases which was a 262-day low, according to the Health Ministry. The active cases were 0.43% of the total caseload and the lowest since the pandemic began in March 2020. The last few times daily cases went below 10,000 were on February 8, February 1, and before that on the January 25. Saturday’s numbers bring the country’s overall tally to 3.37 crore. Optimism however is a double-edged sword. The numbers may be at February levels but it should not be forgotten that India was hit by a lethal second wave — led by a dominating Delta variant — that saw daily cases climb to as many as 4,00,000 a day and excess deaths in several States many multiples of what was being reported by the Government.
Globally too, infections have not plateaued. The daily caseload has fallen by nearly a third since September but the virus continues to infect 50 million people every three months. On Monday, the world crossed a milestone of 25 crore cases since the pandemic began. However, the major difference between February and November is vaccination. About 74 crore first doses of the vaccine have been administered, which translates to 56% of the population. Close to 34 crore second doses have been administered which works out to a quarter of the population being fully inoculated. Coupled with results from serology surveys from States that show that many more have been exposed to the virus than official numbers indicate, this gives confidence that while the virus will continue to spread and infect, a smaller proportion of those infected will be seriously ill. The future demand for vaccination may depend more on adoption in children, or on the demand for booster shots from people worried about waning immunity. That the pall of fear has dimmed is apparent in the queues in airports, the crowds in tourist destinations and the rejuvenation in several indices of trade and economic activity. Whether all this socialisation — and the opening of schools in-person — will mean a surge in the coming months remains to be seen. The Government, while continuing to improve the last mile delivery of vaccines must not let up on advocating caution to avoid another wave of infections. It must continue to facilitate the upgrade of hospital infrastructure in every district; it should also shore up stocks of promising antivirals and ensure that vaccine companies increase supplies in line with their commitments.
