Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring offensive is now likely to be a summer offensive. The ground, unusually muddy this year in the late winter, needs to bake hard to sustain the tanks from western allies.
The airwaves and chatrooms have been full of speculation about how, when and where the attacks will come. The chatter and speculation from former Nato commanders would appear to rob the Ukraine command under General Oleksandr Syrskyi of any element of surprise.
But all the blather and speculation is not unhelpful. The Ukrainian command has kept up its remarkable skill at operational security. This is called OpSec in military-speak, or in common parlance, knowing how to keep schtum. The Ukrainian planners and commanders are only telling those that really need to know about their plan of attack — and that doesn’t include their major allies.
It has helped the war of nerves with Russia and its leaders. The winter has been bloody for both sides — the Pentagon estimates Russian forces have lost 20,000 killed and 80,000 wounded in the past four and a half months.
Ukraine has lost heavily, too, mostly along about 45 miles of front between Vukledar, Avdiivka and Bakhmut.
Some have questioned why Ukraine’s command has committed so heavily to the battle for Bakhmut. The tactic has been to “fix” the Russian forces committed to Donetsk, preventing them from mounting their own spring offensive. The ploy appears to have worked.
Russia has committed nearly 190,000 to this sector alone, and is frantically trying to recruit new levies through companies like Gazprom, and the Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov.
There is a change in the propaganda offensive of the Putin camp. There is uncertainty, too. The May 9 victory parades, usually the occasion for Russians to celebrate all things military, have been toned down or turned off. In Kursk, Belograd and Crimea they have been cancelled on security grounds for fear of drone strikes, and sabotage.
At the centre of the drama stands the figure of Putin, still secure in the power he created, but his inexplicable war has now directly damaged more than a quarter of a million Russians. In the past four months Russia has sustained more killed and wounded in Ukraine than in the 10 years of the Red Army occupation of Afghanistan to 1989. A record hardly to be envied or emulated.
