Government is difficult but there is at least one basic principle to political communication: talk about popular things. If the economy is growing, that’s all that matters. If exam results are up, what could be more important than our children’s education? If NHS waiting lists are falling, this is evidence of the plan working. The converse is also true: don’t draw attention to your failings – that’s what the opposition is for.
So it is in some ways a curiosity that the Conservatives have taken the second week of August to raise the salience of immigration and asylum policy. Today, we had the first asylum seekers arriving on the Bibby Stockholm barge, briefings on a processing centre at Ascension Island and greater fines for businesses that employ illegal immigrants.
All this activity comes as the number of people who crossed the English Channel in small boats in 2023 has surpassed 15,000. This is roughly 15 per cent below the same figure this time last year, but not exactly evidence of success. Meanwhile, the asylum backlog stands at around 170,000, of which 128,000 people have been waiting longer than six months.
Unsurprisingly, the Tories are not polling well on the issue. According to Ipsos, 77 per cent of people think the government is doing a ‘bad’ job on managing immigration, while Labour is seen as more trusted. So why the media blitz?
The answer lies in who immigration is important to: Conservative voters. While one in five of all Britons mentions it as the most important issue facing the country, that figure jumps to 43 per cent for Tory supporters and 35 per cent for those aged over 65. Meanwhile, just 13 per cent of Labour voters rank immigration as the biggest issue, and 9 per cent of those aged 18-34.
It is reasonable, therefore, to conclude that a year or so out from the general election, Rishi Sunak has settled on a core vote strategy. There is a ring of logic to this – 20 points behind in the polls, the Conservatives risk total wipeout. And if the party cannot win back switchers, it must at least give its natural voters a reason not to stay at home come polling day.
A similar argument underpinned previous Tory campaigns, albeit ones fought from opposition. A core vote strategy prevented the party from falling below 165 seats in 2001, while 2005 saw modest gains. But neither threatened to deliver a Conservative majority. And if a decision to pursue a core-vote strategy is settled (see also: climate policy), it represents somewhat of a shift for Sunak, given his strengths thus far have come from his moderate ‘vibes’.
This is not to say the government’s position on immigration is wholly cynical. I think it is clear that Sunak and Suella Braverman are genuinely committed to reducing the number of asylum seekers coming to Britain by irregular means. But you don’t raise the salience of an issue on which more than three-quarters of the public thinks you’re doing a bad job unless your priority is to shore up the support of a sympathetic minority.
In the comment pages, Dylan Jones says plaques are great – if only London had even more of them. Phil Collins predicts that if Sunak and Starmer roll the reshuffle dice, they will find the rewards are rich. While Melanie McDonagh hails the return of the BBC’s ‘greatest-ever’ drama, I, Claudius.
And finally, the £39 Salt Bae lunch reviewed: good if you hate your kids, says David Ellis.
