Rail commuters will be looking nervously at the announcement of July’s inflation figure next Wednesday. That’s because they know that the annual rail fares increase to be imposed in January is usually linked to that month’s RPI.
Last year they escaped relatively lightly as ministers realised that a rise based on last July’s 12.3 per cent would have caused a political train crash, especially given the poor performance of a network beset by strikes and random cancellations. So they split the difference (sort of) and imposed a 5.9 per cent rise instead, still by far the highest in more than a decade.
The private train companies may well be the initial target of passengers’ ire over the increase in fares but it is not their decision and they have no say in the matter. The responsibility lies clearly with ministers who will argue that the subsidy to the industry has risen sharply post-Covid, leaving them no choice.
But that is not true. Trains were kept running during the pandemic at vast expense on government orders to provide travel for key workers. So today’s travellers should not have to pay extra to cover that cost.
There is just a ray of hope that the Government will probably choose not to impose the nine to 10 per cent likely to be implied by the July RPI figure. From the evidence of his time as PM, Rishi Sunak is no train buff. Helicopters and limos are more his cup of tea, but he may still think an intervention to limit the rise is necessary. Not only is 2024 an election year, but Sunak will have noted the furore over proposed ticket office closures which has angered even normally supportive newspapers. He wants to see people back in offices. If he has learnt that railways are a political hot potato, then he might decide to give hard-pressed rail commuters respite.
