Sept. 03--Such is the reputation for political wizardry of Democratic Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan that I half expected him to rise just before a critical floor vote Wednesday evening, unfurl a cape, wave it about dramatically and produce from behind it, seemingly out of thin air, wayward Rep. Ken Dunkin.
"Perhaps this is who you're looking for? Bwa-ha-ha!"
Dunkin, a Chicago Democrat, was the only member of Madigan's caucus not present -- mysteriously AWOL and the subject of rampant speculation online and under the dome all afternoon. Without him, observers believed, Madigan would be one vote short of the 71-vote supermajority needed to override Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner's veto of a union-backed measure to settle state labor stalemates with binding arbitration.
In the days leading up to the vote, Madigan had calmly assured everyone that he had the 71 votes. And the famously disciplined veteran speaker is not one for idle boasting or for calling votes he thinks he might lose.
Surely Dunkin was about to make a surprise entrance, or Madigan would metaphorically pull from his back pocket a pro-labor Republican willing to break party ranks. Any second now . . . 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .
The idea to strip Rauner of much of his negotiating leverage with public employee unions arose as it became apparent how far apart his administration was in ongoing efforts to hammer out a contract with the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and how determined Rauner is, overall, to erode the power of unions.
After all, the governor has made passage of union-weakening measures a prerequisite for engaging with the Democrat-controlled legislature in negotiations on taxing and spending, and Illinois is now entering its third month without a budget.
Fearing that Rauner was attempting to provoke a strike and game-changing confrontation with AFSCME and not to negotiate in good faith, the Democrats passed a law that, for the balance of Rauner's term, would prohibit state employees from striking and, when negotiations reached an impasse, allow an arbitrator to choose between the last, best offers from both sides.
It's not necessarily a bad idea. Arbitration results in reasonable labor accords elsewhere, and walkouts by public employees can cause serious and metastatic disruptions.
But here it wasn't so much about pay, benefits, overtime, work rules and so on as it was about how those areas of disagreement are part of the power war between Rauner and his pro-business, anti-union "Turnaround Agenda" and the Democratic leaders who oppose him.
The Senate easily overrode Rauner's veto of the arbitration bill, and Madigan confidently said he had the votes in the House to do the same.
He looked poised to deal Rauner a small practical blow and huge symbolic wallop, which is just what the stubbornly ideological Rauner needs, in my view.
But he failed. Dunkin, in an act of political cowardice and malfeasance that will become legendary, never showed. Two other Democrats declined to support the override. And Madigan, always said to be several moves on the political chess board ahead of his foes, watched the victory that he'd promised fall three votes short.
The practical blow and symbolic wallop landed on his noggin.
The chess master lost track of one of his supposed pawns. The wizard was exposed as just a man behind the curtain.
And Rauner, the political novice who was ostensibly going to be overmatched by the savvy Madigan, didn't suffer a single Republican House vote in favor of the override. The Democratic failure Wednesday strengthens Rauner's position with AFSCME and negotiations over terms to begin budget talks.
Ah, but is Madigan simply trying to lure Rauner into overplaying his hand? Does he plan to use Wednesday's anti-union votes to turn Republican seats Democrat in next year's election?
Some hopeful chatter on the message boards is saying yes, he's still playing the long game and is going to win. But that's still his reputation speaking, not reality.
Reality is that he lost. The game has changed. It's from Rauner that the satisfied chuckle emanates: "Bwa-ha-ha!"
