It was the summit of no illusions. Even the offer to meet again in Moscow, made by Vladimir Putin in English at the end of his short final statement in Alaska, appeared tentative. “I might get a little heat on that one,” Donald Trump replied, with uncharacteristic hesitancy.
After three hours of talks, in which the two men failed to meet head-to-head, there has been no ceasefire in Ukraine, no easing and no reinforcing of sanctions. The obvious big winner is Putin himself – back on the world stage, no longer isolated and talking face-to-face to American leaders.
It is also a prize for Trump as, at last, he can eyeball the Russian leader. He has opened a form of dialogue that the Kremlin will find hard to shut down. The senior partner China, on whose subsidy the Russian war effort depends increasingly, would not want this. Xi Jinping believes he needs diplomatic engagement with Washington, too.
The normally garrulous Trump seemed infected by a new realism in his three minute address to the media at the end of proceedings in Anchorage. He admitted that the talks had been frank and covered many subjects – but there were two obstacles to progress. One, he said, was serious.
His team seemed to sense that the Ukraine war and its legacy will be a very large shadow for the rest of this version of the Trump presidency.
For Ukraine and Ukrainians the war goes on – as it was bound to, whatever the hype about peace being on the horizon at the Alaska talks. Russia thinks it is winning, despite the costly and somewhat lukewarm achievements of the summer campaign. The Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia municipalities have been taken, invested, or bypassed. New tactics of penetrating Ukraine defences with groups of commando-style deep reconnaissance strike squads have paid off.
So far, few of these attacks have been backed up by tanks and armoured vehicles. It is hard to see how Russian forces, now well over 450,000 in the main areas of operations across a line of confrontation – the battle front – on well over 1,000 kilometres , or 850 miles, can sustain a full-scale occupation of the bits of Ukraine they already hold.
The numbers are now swinging in Russia’s favour. The Kremlin’s forces are recruiting each month 9,000 more for the battle area than they are losing. The chaos in the ministry of defence, military production and supply, has been tackled by the new defence minister, Andrei Belousov, a skilled businessman.
At the central bank his opposite number, Elvira Nabiullina, has managed to steady the ship, as well as the rouble, despite concerns about rising inflation and worsening employment figures.
Ukraine is facing increasing strains on the frontline . A lot of troops are exhausted, and units are hard to replace – especially as the Russian tactic is to stretch them as much as possible across a series of battles from the Kursk pocket in the east, to Kherson in the west. Cities and civilian centres are bombed nightly. But in the air, Ukraine is getting in significant blows in hitting key logistic points deep into Russian territory. Here, Kyiv has an advantage that Moscow is trying to cancel – even suggesting a no-fly zone over Ukraine and west Russia in the preliminaries to the Alaska meet.
Russia still maintains its maximalist aim towards Ukraine – an obvious fact hidden in plain sight in the run up to Alaska. Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, said Russia wanted regime change in Kyiv, demilitarisation in Ukraine and enforced neutrality – no membership of Nato in any form. Putin also stated he wanted to discuss “the root causes” of the war.
In his terms this means the end of “encirclement”, or threat to Russia by NATO and its associates. In his fantasy historical imagination he wants Russia to be acknowledged as leader in European security – the equal, if not superior to European Nato allies and the European Union. He wants to return to what he sees as the glory days of Stalin’s empire back in the USSR – with Russia bossing the agenda as it did at Yalta, and even more at Potsdam in 1945.
This puts an onus on Europe, which includes the UK led by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. According to latest Ministry of Defence analysis, Russia will require another four years AND up to 1.9 million personnel to achieve its war aims in Ukraine, to occupy and hold all that it claims in the oblasts of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. This could break the economy, as well as the ageing and ailing population of Russia, leaving it an angered and vengeful militarised nation for decades to come.
The grudge against NATO and Europe for the loss of the Soviet empire felt by Putin and his cronies cuts two ways. Nations formerly occupied by Soviet forces have their grudge – and don’t want the Moscow occupation experience to be repeated. Potentially, Poland, Finland, Germany and their immediate Nordic allies could field an army of over a million along Nato’s borders by 2030. Moscow knows this.
Donald Trump seemed to sense this, too, in his sober concluding remarks in Alaska. He said he has to brief European allies and Volodymyr Zelensky – an exercise in which Marco Rubio and JD Vance will play a critical role, doubtless.
The next critical moves in shoring up Ukraine and pushing Russia towards peace are likely to come from America in partnership with Europe. Europe will have to provide any peacekeeping, monitoring and reassurance forces required. This involves Britain, too.
Despite the parlous state of our defences and forces, Sir Keir has to make a practical and realistic contribution. Peace and reassurance in Europe and the world could depend on it .
