Can the Conservatives avoid a landslide defeat? Time is running out. The party appears to be staring into the political abyss. Labour’s average poll lead this month stands at 19 points, with recent seat projections suggesting that the Conservatives could be heading for a 1997-style landslide defeat — or worse.
In January 1997, under Sir Tony Blair’s leadership, Labour averaged a similar 21-point lead. The signs are ominous for the Conservatives. Yet in many ways, the world of 2024 is very different to 1997. If Rishi Sunak does decide to call the next election in the second half of the year, he will have more time to change his party’s fortunes than John Major did in January 1997.
In five of the last 10 elections there have been shifts of 10 points or more from polls a year out to the election result. Margaret Thatcher turned a six-point deficit a year out into an 11-point win in 1987. David Cameron looked on course for a majority until a change in public sentiment meant he had to settle for leading a coalition government. Things can change. Perhaps not enough to save the Conservatives but enough to materially affect the type of Labour government we get.
Labour also has weaknesses today that it didn’t have in 1997. In December, Sir Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction rating as Labour leader stood at -21 (30 per cent satisfied, 51 per cent dissatisfied), whereas Sir Tony registered a +18 in January 1997. Meanwhile, although Sir Keir’s success in detoxifying the Labour brand post 2019 is undeniable, the public are less sure about Labour’s readiness for government than they were in 1997. In October, 43 per cent agreed Labour was ready and 39 per cent disagreed. In April 1997, 55 per cent agreed Labour was ready. Just 33 per cent disagreed.
In 1997, the issues that were most important to voters were the NHS and education — key Labour strengths. Now the picture is more mixed. A major plus for Labour today is that it is most trusted on key voter issues such as the NHS (by 22 points) and dealing with the cost of living (by 17).
However, the public are less convinced in other areas. In December, 29 per cent told us Labour would do a better job managing the economy than the Conservatives but 28 per cent felt it would do worse and 34 per cent said it would do about the same. On immigration, 24 per cent said Labour would do better, 26 per cent worse and 40 per cent about the same. The issues that dominate the coming campaign could matter a lot for Labour but let’s not overstate its challenges when it is almost 20 points ahead. Eight in 10 are dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country and around two-thirds consistently tell us it is time for change. Fundamentally, this sentiment matters more than any doubts about Labour.
It would take an unprecedented shift in public sentiment towards Sunak’s government to keep the Tories in office after the next election. There are no signs of one yet. In truth, it’s not hard to see why landslide talk is growing. Not only is Labour’s poll lead now similar to January 1997 but there are areas of public opinion where the Conservatives are actually performing worse. Our Ipsos Political Monitor shows that net satisfaction with the Government in December stood at -70 compared with -50 in January 1997. Net satisfaction with the Prime Minister was -48 compared with -30 and net economic optimism stood at -28, compared with zero.
Comparisons to 1997 go beyond polling. In 1996, Labour won the South-East Staffordshire by-election with a swing of 22 points from the Conservatives. In 2023, Labour achieved similar swings gaining Selby and Ainsty (23.7 points), Mid Bedfordshire (20.5 points) and Tamworth (23.9 points). John Major faced a leadership challenge in 1995. Questions about Sunak’s leadership persist today. In many ways the political environment is eerily similar. Yet, the prospect of a Nigel Farage return, a Reform surge and anti-Tory tactical voting could mean things get worse for the party, not better.
So while it can be shown that significant shifts in public sentiment are possible in election year and public doubts about Labour remain, the Tories should be in no doubt about the trouble they are in. For all of the differences between now and 1997, there are enough similarities to make a landslide defeat a real possibility unless there is a significant shift in the public mood. Time is running out for the Conservatives to turn things around.
