Overnight Israel has attacked Iranian military and political headquarters and several nuclear sites in five waves of drones and fighter-bombers. Some one hundred warplanes were involved, firing more than 300 pieces of heavy ordnance. By dawn Tehran admitted several key players in the regime had been killed, including the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, Major General Hossein Salami, and the chief of staff Major General Mohammed Bagheri. The nuclear site at Natanz was reported ‘flattened’ – with the main reactor ‘destroyed.’
The government of Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the operation to knock out Iran’s nuclear programme is likely to last four or five days. The fear is that it has opened a new phase of war across the Middle East as the embattled regime of the ageing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tries to retaliate, and this phase could last months. Britain and British interests, as well as those of principal allies like France, Germany and Italy are involved – as well the United States.
The reaction of President Trump to the Israeli attacks has been surprisingly muted – for him, at least. Washington was notified of the operation well in advance. After all, just last month the US sent fresh supplies of bunker busting bombs such as the CBU-28 to the Israeli air force. It is believed that the US Air Force supplied real time targeting intelligence to Israel during the raids of Thursday night and Friday morning.
In strangely quixotic mode, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, has repeated that the talks between the special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi should go ahead in Oman as scheduled for this weekend. It is the sixth round of discussions about restricting Iran’s nuclear programme.
The failure of the talks and the refusal of Iran to engage fully with what America was proposing appears to have persuaded Israel to attack – to destroy what nuclear facilities it could before it was too late. Netanyahu’s conviction that now was the time was reinforced by the bleak report earlier this week by the head of the IAEA – the UN nuclear monitoring authority – Rafael Grossi. Grossi accused Tehran of carrying a campaign of outright deception about Iran’s nuclear programmes and their intent. IAEA inspectors had been excluded from at least three major sites.
Israel’s forces feared that Iran might have up to nine nuclear bombs or projectiles, fully capable and fully usable by October. They were also concerned about the development of Iran’s drone and ballistic missile technology — enhanced by collaboration with Russia in the Ukraine war. The new weapons are finding their way to the Houthis. A nightmare scenario is that the Houthis could acquire hypersonic missiles with tactical nuclear warheads. Cyprus, most of Italy and even southern France might soon be well within range of weapons already being developed in Iran.
The head of Israel’s armed forces, Major General Eyal Zamir, said the crisis with Iran “had reached the point of no return.” He said that the attack was “an immediate operational necessity,” an imperative “to remove the strategic threat and ensure our future”.
The operation was highly choreographed – in the air and on the ground. Several sources have reported extensive activity by Israeli commando units from the MOSSAD intelligence agency to destroy smaller radar stations, communications centres and air defence batteries of missiles and artillery. Many used small short-range drones packed with parcels of highly sophisticated explosive – a tactic straight out of the Ukraine battlefield playbook.
Once again operatives from Mossad and the electronic surveillance and targeting commando, Military Unit 8200, located key commanders and two leading nuclear scientists with pinpoint accuracy. At least some of the assassinations must have been the opening minutes of the air raids – and probably happened as military HQs and political offices in Tehran were being bombed. Among the first to die was General Mohammed Bagheri, effective head of Iran’s armed forces. Within hours, Ayatollah Khamenei’s office announced that Admiral Habibollah Sayyari had replaced him with immediate effect.
Large parts of Europe are within range of Tehran’s new range of missiles. More insidious could be threat of terror and cyber attacks
General Zamir of the IDF has warned that Iran’s forces are mobilised and ‘preparing to cross all borders.’ He appeared to recognise that Israel had taken a huge gamble, with no guarantee of immediate success. There are fears that Iranian special forces units and three-man cells could launch a terror campaign across Europe. The UK recently deployed the SAS to support anti-terror police to thwart a suspect Iranian cell – and over the past year there have been signs of Iranian subversion in three quite separate locations.
The strongest criticism from the IAEA was that Iran has been in shameless and flagrant breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – NPT – of 1968, of which Tehran under the Shah was an early signatory. This was continued by the Islamic Republic after the revolution of 1979, though the civil nuclear programme was lapsed until 1984. But Grossi and the IAEA now believe that Tehran intended to go nuclear all along. This would trigger a nuclear arms race across the Middle East; and that may now be hard to avoid. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt would want to match a nuclear-armed Iran.
A surge in the oil price will be of enormous short-term benefit to Russia above all others – a fiscal bonus to Moscow’s staggering war economy
Rough times are ahead, however short or long Israel’s newest battle with Iran runs. Within hours of the attack, Brent Crude shot up to $78 a barrel. A surge in the oil price will be of enormous short-term benefit to Russia above all others – a fiscal bonus to Moscow’s staggering war economy. The ripples of tension start regional and end global – affecting the shipping of the Gulf, Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. Large parts of Europe are within range of Tehran’s new range of missiles. More insidious could be threat of terror and cyber attacks.
For the UK the latest developments across the Middle East, in which British interests and forces are involved, despite clumsy denials today from the Ministry of Defence, mean a lot of old assumptions about defence and security need to be re-examined. This includes a large chunk of last week’s defence review. It must be a critical emergency item for Nato’s major annual summit in The Hague at the end of this month – whether Nato and its leaders like it or not.
Robert Fox is defence editor for The Standard
