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Graeme Wearden (until 2.55pm) and Nick Fletcher

Opec extends oil production cuts; bitcoin plunges below $10,000 – as it happened

OPEC Conference President Khaled al-Falih at the start of the 173rd OPEC Conference in Vienna.
OPEC Conference President Khaled al-Falih at the start of the 173rd OPEC Conference in Vienna. Photograph: Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty Images

Oil deal unanimous - Saudi energy minister

Breaking news:

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih has confirmed that the agreement on curbing output will be extended. He said, the decision has been unanimous, a solid decision to extend deal through December 2018. It is basically a one year agreement, he said, tweaking the language to strengthen agreement.

He said inventories were expected to decline to the desired targets in the second half of 2018.

We don’t expect supply surprises in 2018 as we saw in 2017, he says. But supply from other regions remains unknown, he says, especially shale producers from the US. We will be agile and respond as events unfold.

The issue of Libya and Nigeria surprised market in 2017. There was constructive consultation with their leaders, they have an interest in market stability. We wish them the best. Both countries have told us their 2018 levels will not exceed what they achieved in 2017. So to the market we say there are no surprises expected from them.

The six observing countries have also endorsed the agreement.

We are very conscious the state of the global economy is impacted by volatility in oil prices.

I feel extremely optimistic about short and long term outlook for oil. If I have a concern, it is that investment should flow back into the industry sooner rather than later.

On that note, it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments and we’ll be back tomorrow.

Brent higher as oil producers agree to extend output deal

Brent crude is currently up 0.4% at $63.37 a barrel, as Opec and non-Opec producers (Russia being the key member of the latter) agreed to extend their output curbs until the end of 2018.

But West Texas Intermediate - the US benchmark - has slipped 0.5% to $57 a barrel.

Preparing for the Opec group photo
Preparing for the Opec group photo Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Reuters is also reporting that a delegate has said that Opec and non-Opec members have agreed the extension at the afternoon meeting.

European markets edge lower

Contrasting fortunes for US and European markets. Hopes that the Republican tax plan will be passed, along with a rebound in technology shares, has helped lift Wall Street to new peaks. But European shares slipped back as the euro held up, and the FTSE 100 similarly fell back on sterling strength against the dollar. The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished down 0.9% or 66.89 at 7326.67
  • Germany’s Dax dipped 0.29% to 13,023.98
  • France’s Cac closed down 0.47% at 5372.79
  • Spain’s Ibex ended down 0.55% at 10,211.0
  • But Italy’s FTSE MIB edged up 0.19% 22,368.29
  • In Greece, the Athens market added 0.26% to 740.20

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 208 points or 0.88%.

Meanwhile bitcoin, having hit 11,395 late on Wednesday, is now down 5.75% at 9259.

Now there will be a group photo and then the meeting will continue in private.

The positive trend in the market is driven by good fundamental metrics, says Novak.

We are continuing to see inventory draws, a significant decline in volatily and investment returning. We are also seeing....good demand growth.

However, to reach our goals, to rebalance the market, we must continue to act jointly and take us further into 2018 and have a co-ordinated approach to that.

Both consumers and producers are waiting to see what we will announce today.

I am hopeful we will arrive at a joint conclusion.

The key player among the non-Opec countries is of course Russia. Its energy minister Alexander Novak says the joint efforts are benefiting the whole global economy.

We deliberated on the extension of the agreement at the Opec meeting this morning, and this will now be deliberated with our non-Opec colleagues, he says. We must continue to work in unison and stay the course.

(Opec members have reportedly agreed to extend the output curbs from March 2018 to the end of the year, but this needs now to be agreed by non-Opec participants.)

Updated

Demand is on firm ground, he says, and there has been 100% compliance to the target by Opec and non-Opec members.

We are heading in the right direction but we are not where we want to be, we must remain focused, he says.

The meeting’s chair, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih is making his opening statements, saying the declaration a year ago was a landmark achievement and has helped the oil industry recover. He says many thought it would might not affect market conditions, but the effects are self evident.

Updated

The Opec and non-Opec meeting is about to start shortly and can be seen live here. The press conference will apparently follow afterwards.

Updated

The pound has continued its gains against the dollar and is now up 0.8% at $1.3515.

This is the first time sterling has been higher than $1.35 since the end of September. The currency is benefitting from growing hopes that some key Brexit agreements will be made, but there are also some US developments which are denting the dollar. Connor Campbell, market analyst at Spreadex, says:

The dollar lost a step this afternoon as news broke that Donald Trump is looking to get rid of Rex Tillerson as State Secretary and replace him with CIA chief Mike Pompeo.

In the aftermath of the reports cable saw its gains widen to 0.8%, lifting the pound above $1.35 for the first time since the end of September, while the euro rose half a percent and the yen erased its early losses. All this is presumably because investors aren’t too happy to see further signs of discord in the Trump government just as progress is being made on the tax bill.

The Dow Jones, on the other hand, wasn’t too fussed by the news, rising half a percent after the bell to a brand spanking new all-time high of 24070. That marks around a 500 point surge since the start of Tuesday’s trading, and a 21% climb since the year began.

Dow hits 24,000

Meanwhile on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed above 24,000 for the first time.

A rebound in technology stocks and continuing hopes of progress with the Republican tax cut plan have combined to send US markets higher. The Dow is currently up 132 points at 24,073 while the S&P 500 opened up 0.36% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.4%.

The pound has just hit a new nine-week high against the US dollar, at $1.3494.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says optimism over Brexit is helping sterling:

The pound is continuing to dine out on the signs of Brexit progress, with yesterday’s reports of a divorce bill agreement joined by a rumours that the UK and EU are ‘close to a breakthrough’ on the Irish border issue.

Over at Opec’s luxury hotel, energy reporters are tucking into a range of delicious nibbles:

That platter does have a certain 1970s feel about it. Perhaps Opec is harking back to its glory days, when it could impose an oil embargo on America and send gasoline prices soaring.

Updated

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Bitcoin has continued to drop, to below $9,200.

That means whoever bought the cryptocurrency at yesterday’s record highs has lost around $2,000 per bitcoin.

Some photos from the Opec meeting have landed:

Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia Khalid A. Al-Falih.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid A. Al-Falih arriving at today’s gathering.... Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
OPEC Conference President Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khaled al-Falih (L) and OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo (2ndL) answer journalsists at the start of the 173rd OPEC Conference of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, on November 30, 2017.
...and straight into a media scrum, to give his views on the oil market Photograph: Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty Images
UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei speaks to journalists as he attends the 173rd OPEC Conference of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, on November 30, 2017.
UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei also fielded questions -- he said a nine month extension was likely Photograph: Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty Images
A fire engine passes OPEC’s headquarters as journalists queue at the entrance ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, November 30, 2017. REUTERS/Heinz-Peter Bader
It’s still chilly outside too. Photograph: Heinz-Peter Bader/Reuters

Cailin Birch, Commodities Analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warns that oil producers are losing their enthusiasm for output cuts.

She says:

Political will to maintain the quota system is beginning to wane among some OPEC countries and some non-OPEC partners, including Russia. Global oil prices have held over US$60/b for over a month now, a level that was unimaginable earlier this year. Global oil stocks are beginning to decline, closer to the five-year average range.

As a result, some key producers appear to be interested in ending the production-cut deal sooner rather than later, in an effort to preserve market share.

But despite those concerns, she still expects a deal today:

The EIU considers it to be more likely that the cuts will be extended through to end-2018, with an option to review this agreement at mid-year -- a nod to some partners less willing to stay on board.

Although the global market is beginning to tighten, oil supplies remain comfortable and US output continues to rise; this means that continued restraint by OPEC will be necessary to erode global stockpiles further.

Reports: Opec to extend cuts to end of 2018

Bloomberg are reporting that a deal to extend Opec’s production cuts by nine months is in the bag.

Ministers are now discussing how to review the situation next June.

Oil jumps on Opec deal hopes

The oil price is rallying, following this morning’s loud hints from Opec that production cuts will be extended at today’s meeting in Vienna.

Brent crude has jumped by a whole dollar per barrel, or 1.6%, to $64.11.

Traders are anticipating that the oil cartel will extend its current output curbs for an extra nine months, to the end of 2018 -- following the Opec call for everyone to stick together.

But the oil market can be a volatile beast (although rarely in the bitcoin league!). So if Opec disappoints, we could see prices fall sharply.

Craig Erlam of trading firm Oanda reckons a nine-month extension is largely priced in:

Only a more aggressive cut is likely to provide any substantial upside, although I’m not sure there’ll be much appetite for such action given the progress that’s already been made and the market share that is being conceded to US shale as a result.

Financial traders are fascinated by Bitcoin’s wild gyrations, says City Index.

Given the current price action of the cryptocurrency, headlines are easy to come by, and yesterday was no different. The virtual currency gained over 15% in the early part of the day, charging through $10,000 to a fresh all time high of over $11,000, before plummeting as much as 21%, with incredible speed to $9009.

Whilst traditional assets are experiencing historically low levels of volatility, the whipsaw action of the bitcoin is drawing the attention of traditional traders. Meanwhile existing traders and new comers are increasingly interested in fear of missing out.

Bubble or no bubble, there is nothing to say the price can’t go up further. With more interest from professionals, from the mainstream, and Nasdaq also announcing plans to launch bitcoin futures, the virtual currency’s legitimacy has grown exponentially which is reflected in its price increase. Bitcoin has rallied over 1100% since the start of the year and 100% in the last two weeks.

But with these size of price increases, a hefty downside should also be expected.

Bitcoin falls back through $10,000

Bitcoin is falling out of bed again.

The cryptocurrency has now tumbled $9,500, a loss of $1,000 compared to this morning’s height.

It looks like a repeat of yesterday’s selloff, when the cryptocurrency plummeted shortly after crashing through the $11,000 milestone.

Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin this week Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Even so, Bitcoin’s gains this year are extraordinary; it’s quadrupled since the summer.

Bitcoin this year
Bitcoin over the last six months Photograph: Thomson Reuters

But still, these wild fluctuations do suggest that bitcoin has bubbly tendancies.

Speaking of bubbly... apparently you can buy a second-hand gold Rolls-Royce (complete with a rear refrigerator and champagne flutes) using bitcoin:

Updated

Robert Chote, who runs the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, says there are several reasons why migration into the UK has slowed, including the slump in the pound.

But... the push factors have also weakened. Economist Douglas McWilliams points out that Europe’s economy has been creating more jobs recently, giving people less reason to look abroad.

Stephen Clarke of Resolution Foundation says the drop in potential workers will hurt some UK companies:

But Home Office minister Brandon Lewis argues that the system is working:

Record slowdown in UK migration

Migration into the UK from Europe has slowed sharply since the Brexit vote last year, as fewer people come to Britain looking for a job.

New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that net migration into the UK fell to 230,000 in the year ending June 2017.

That’s the largest annual decrease ever recorded, down from +336,000 in the previous 12 months (running up to the EU vote).

Over three-quarters of the decrease in net migration can be accounted for by EU citizens. The number moving to the UK fell by 82,000 to +107,000, which the ONS calls “a statistically significant decrease”.

Those immigrating with a “definite job” remained stable (187,000); while the number of people coming to the UK “looking for work” fell by 56,000 to 74,000.

Again, much of the decline (47,000) was due to EU citizens.

Reaction to follow....

Updated

Eurozone unemployment hits nine-year low

Newsflash: Unemployment in the eurozone has hit its lowest level in almost nine years.

The euro area jobless rate has dropped to 8.8%, the best reading since January 2009, as the region’s recovery continues.

Germany still has one of the best unemployment rates, while France, Italy and Spain are all lagging.

Al-Falih also touches (briefly) on environmental issues.

He says Opec should give climate change “due attention” and “continually engage on environmental issues” (while still pumping millions of barrels of oil out of the ground each day to be burned or turned into plastic, presumably).

Opec president: We must all stick together

Opec president (and Saudi oil minister) Khalid Al-Falih
Opec president (and Saudi oil minister) Khalid Al-Falih Photograph: Opec

The press pack have now been shooed away from the oil ministers, and the Opec meeting is formally under way.

Saudi Arabia’s Khalid Al-Falih is chairing the meeting, as he’s Opec’s president.

He says that Opec has “come a long way” in the last year towards rebalancing the oil market, but “a lot more needs to be done”.

Al-Falih cautions that the energy market is entering the “low-demand” period. But, the medium to long-term outlook looks healthy as the global economy strengthens.

Al-Falih urges members to stick together, rather than bowing to the temptation to pump more oil than is permitted under the output cuts deal.

History says that as you get closer to the goal, commitment wavers. I call on you all to stay the course, rather than relying on others.

In the long term, Al-Falih says that oil producers must invest in new infrastructure to ensure oil production in the future.

Ot oh..Bitcoin is losing some of its earlier gains, and is now back at $10,075.

That’s a gain of 2.5% so far today.

A scrum of TV cameras have swarmed around Saudi Arabia’s oil minister.

Khalid Al-Falih says that he believes Opec should continue its current policy of curbing oil output, to get the market back into balance.

We should “continue the process that has worked so well in 2017”, Al-Falih declares.

He adds:

We are not complacent. We are going into 2018 half done. We need all of 2018 to get the job done.

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Al-Falih
Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Al-Falih today Photograph: Bloomberg TV

Al-Falih also says it is “premature” to talk about Opec exiting its production cuts.

But he does suggests that the cartel could reassess the situation next summer:

Iran’s oil minister says that $60 per barrel is a ‘good price’ - a sign that the Iranian government is happy with the production cuts deal.

Across the room, Kuwaiti’s oil minister has told reporters that he supports a nine-month extension to the cuts deal.

Saudi: We won't ease cuts until market is healthier

NEWSFLASH: Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has dropped a strong hint that Opec will agree to extend production cuts by nine months today.

Khalid A. Al-Falih has told reporters in Vienna that the existing deal is working well, and there is “perfect alignment” between Opec members.

Al-Falih adds oil producers shouldn’t ease off until the market is healthier.

He personally favours a nine-month extension - and hopes that other members will back this idea too.

The Financial Times’s Anjli Raval has the details:

The Opec meeting is open, and journalists are racing into the room to quiz energy ministers....

Iraq: We agree to a 9-month extension

Newsflash: Iraqi officials have said they support extending Opec’s output curbs deal until the end of next year.

Russia isn’t an Opec member, but it can still play a key role at today’s meeting.

A year ago, Russia threw its weight behind the oil output curbs drawn up by Opex. That deal took 1.8 million barrels per day out of the market, helping to push crude prices up this year.

For today’s deal to be a success, Opec needs Russia to stay on board.

Mihir Kapadia, CEO of Sun Global Investments, says Moscow has reservations over the deal - but will probably back an extension today.

Kapadia says:

Russian Economy Minister Maxim Oreshkin recently indicated that their economic growth in October was negatively affected by their deal with OPEC. The Economy Minister’s comments are the first by a senior Russian official giving a negative assessment on the deal where Russia agreed to cut output by 300,000 bpd compared with its level in October 2016.

These comments are understandable given Russia’s heavy oil dependence. However, they should arguably be willing to take some short-term pain to gain the benefit of medium term price gains. The country lost out heavily during the oil price collapse in 2008-09 and mid-2014. We expect the country to accept and cooperate over the cutback extension at the OPEC meeting in Vienna

The reporters covering Opec are keeping warm by huddling together in a stairwell, waiting to be allowed into the meeting.

Brent crude has risen by 0.5% this morning, to $63.45 per barrel.

Several delegates are hinting that Opec will indeed extend its output curbs by another nine months today.

Hopefully the Opec delegates remembered their hats and gloves.

Opec could extend cuts until end of 2018

The chatter in Vienna is that Opec will agree to cut oil output for an extra nine months.

The current production deal expires in March - but ministers are now considering extending it until the end of 2018.

If so, that could nudge the oil prices higher (with the caveat that other producers can simply pump more)

Reuters explains:

While there has not been an official statement, OPEC and Russia seem ready to prolong their oil supply cuts until the end of 2018. The cuts were put in place last January and are set to expire next March.

However, an extension may include a review in June should healthy demand amid ongoing supply restraint overheat the market.

“OPEC loves leaving an ace card up their sleeve, they will never give everything away (in advance),” said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Investor Services in Dubai.

ANZ bank said “anything less than a nine-month extension to the current production agreement could see the recent sell-off accelerate.”

Sterling has hit a new nine-week high this morning, driven by hopes that the UK and Europe will hammer out a Brexit deal.

The pound is trading at $1.34, the highest since 26 September. Investors are hopeful that the two sides will reach agreement on Britain’s ‘exit bill’ next month, and move onto trade talks.

Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at interactive investor, says sterling is getting a Brexit boost:

Optimism that our Brexit negotiators can do a deal at December’s summit and move onto crucial post-Brexit trade talks, is greater now than it has been.

Wild also advises bitcoin traders to tread cautiously, after this week’s volatility.

Believe in it or not, bitcoin is worth over $10,000 again. Cryptocurrency land’s extreme volatility is like catnip to high-risk traders, and even traditional investors are dipping their toe. Given there’s no logical way to value them with any accuracy, this remains Wild West stuff.

Bitcoin’s wild swings have left some experienced City figures a little baffled.

Martin Gilbert, co-CEO of Standard Life Aberdeen, was on Bloomberg TV this morning, and asked if he’s been buying crypto-currencies.

Gilbert denied it, saying:

I wouldn’t even know how to buy it.

Bitcoin: Up, down, up again

Even by bitcoin’s usual standards, this is turning into quite a dizzying week.

Last night, the crypto currency plunged by 20% (!) after hitting a fresh record high over $11,300 yesterday.

Bitcoin is still looking skittish this morning, surging back up to $10,618 before subsiding.

Bitcoin this week
The bitcoin pricethis week Photograph: Thomson Reuters

All terribly exciting, but not perhaps what you’re looking for in a currency. As an asset class, you need strong nerves to trade it.

The agenda: Opec are meeting in Vienna

OPEC ministers attending an informal meeting in Vienna yesterday, on the eve of the 173rd OPEC Conference.
OPEC ministers attending an informal meeting in Vienna yesterday, on the eve of the 173rd OPEC Conference. Photograph: Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty Images

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

It’s a big day for the energy market. Over in a chilly Vienna, oil ministers from the Opec group of energy producers are gathering for a crucial meeting.

Opec must decide whether to extend their existing production cuts agreement, and for how long, in an attempt to remove excess capacity and support oil prices.

The existing deal, agreed a year ago, seems to have succeeded. Brent crude has risen from $56 per barrel to around $63 in the last 12 months.

But with competitors such as shale and renewables lurking, Opec will probably decide to extend the production curbs. But for how long? Six months? A year?

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says the meeting could move the markets.

Today’s main event is expected to be the OPEC meeting in Vienna where it is expected that oil ministers will extend the output freeze by another 9 months, until the end of 2018. That is certainly what a ministerial committee of oil producers recommended yesterday, however that didn’t stop oil prices continuing their recent slide lower ahead of today’s announcement.

There appear to be some concerns that Russia might well throw a ratchet into the gears, particularly in the context of the length of the output extension. There has been some concern that an extended freeze could well leave the field open to US shale producers who are already pumping at record levels. Therefore the biggest question isn’t around an extension, it’s about how long the extension lasts for. We should know later today.

European stock markets are expected to be calm, as traders await developments in Vienna.

We’ll also be watching bitcoin, after it surged through $11,000 yesterday only to fall back sharply.

Plus, we get new eurozone inflation and unemployment data this morning.

Here’s the agenda:

  • 9am GMT: Opening session at the Opec meeting in Vienna
  • 10am GMT: Eurozone inflation data for October
  • 10am GMT: Eurozone unemployment data for October
  • 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobless figures
  • 4pm GMT (approx): Opec decision
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