The polls are all over the place, running on the spot or lurching wildly, not just between Labour and Tories but down below where Lib Dems and Ukip joust. And I keep thinking about Nick Sparrow, a wise, experienced man. He masterminded polling for the Guardian before he did it for Conservative Central Office (founding ICM en route). Now his questions, blogged months ago, keep nagging away in the back of my mind. Nick has doubts about online polls (the overwhelming purveyors of wisdom as 7 May nears): “What if those polls, comprising panellists with stronger opinions than others, being more optimistic and volatile, suggest in the runup to the next general election that the Lib Dems will be annihilated, that Ukip and the SNP are surging upwards, that Farage and Salmond will be the new kingmakers and mouldbreakers?”
And what if pollsters – via telephones as well as online – prompt responses by naming minor parties? “My research suggests naming them has the effect of making our estimates for that party far too high, and not naming them has the opposite effect.”
What if, in short, multiparty contests and baffling technology are making a great polling muddle? One more inquest for 8 May.
■ Tangle time: The Lords EU committee (as mentioned here last week) didn’t supervise examination of 32 competences between the UK and the EU. It reported on that Whitehall review, complaining that 32 verdicts had not been brought together. Lord Boswell, chairman of the committee, used to be a Tory MP, but is now an independent peer. I’m sorry about the confusions – but much sorrier to see 32 investigations challenging overbearing EU myths slyly buried for prejudicial purpose.
■ This article was amended on 15 April 2015. An earlier version referred to Lord Best, rather than Lord Boswell, as the committee chairman. We apologise for the error.
