To those hoping Kentucky's three-point shooting shows dramatic _ and exquisitely timed _ improvement Saturday against archrival Louisville, here are some sobering numbers:
Louisville ranks 15th nationally in three-point defense. Opponents have made only 26.7% of their three-point shots. Of course, Kentucky is the resistible force going against this immovable object. UK ranks 345th in average number of three-point shots made (4.5 per game) and 326th in shooting accuracy from beyond the arc (27.8 percent).
Whatever happens in Rupp Arena, two long-term college basketball observers said that the three months remaining in the season give Kentucky plenty of time to improve its three-point shooting.
ESPN analyst Jay Bilas cited Nate Sestina's breakout shooting game against Ohio State to make this point.
"What was Sestina shooting before he went into the Ohio State game?" Bilas asked. Answer: Sestina had made three of 13 three-point shots (23.1-percent accuracy). Then his improvement was a supernova against the Buckeyes as he made five of eight.
Former UK All-American Kevin Grevey, who made 51.7% of his shots as a college player in the era before the three-pointer, agreed that there's time for Kentucky to improve.
"It's a challenge," he said, "and it's a test. But they can definitely get better. There's too much talent there. You're not going to jump any higher. You're not going to be any quicker.
"But, man, you can certainly be a better shooter (by March). Good shooters can become great shooters. Bad shooters can become average shooters. C'mon."
Except for Sestina's 5-for-8 shooting against Ohio State, Kentucky was a collection of bad three-point shooters in Las Vegas. Other than Sestina, UK players made four of 32 three-point shots. That's 12.5-percent accuracy.
"They're a lot better than that," Grevey said. "When they make 12 of 20 (in a future game), they're probably not as good as that. It'll even out. It'll come."
Former UK player Mike Pratt, who does color commentary on radio broadcasts of Kentucky games, said much the same thing when subbing for Calipari on the first half of the coach's radio show this week.
How good a three-point shooting team is Kentucky?
"Great? I doubt that," Pratt told the radio audience. "But they can be very solid (to the extent) where you have to guard them."
