Former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli was credited as saying, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” That can be just as true in the NFL as it is in the House of Commons, but numbers can reveal more than a few things about players, teams, and overall trends.
As the 2019 season approaches, here’s one number for each NFL team that tells a story crucial to that team’s success or failure. From the 14 that could tell the story of Kyler Murray’s protection to the 56.7 that should have the Redskins running to make Trent Williams happy, one little number can tell a big story.
Where indicated, the statistics were taken from Football Outsiders (FO), Pro Football Focus (PFF), or Sports Info Solutions (SIS).
Arizona Cardinals: 14
The Cardinals used 13 different offensive linemen last season, which is sub-optimal. And if you factor in that center A.Q. Shipley lost the entire 2018 season to a torn ACL, that’s 14. No other team has used that many offensive linemen in a season in this millennium. In December, all five of the Cardinals’ Week 1 starters were either on the bench or released; the team was using three guys off the practice squad of other teams, or linemen signed off the street. In December alone, Arizona allowed 22 sacks—that’s more than the Colts, Saints, and Patriots allowed all season. (FO)
The projected 2019 starting five of left tackle D.J. Humphries, left guard Justin Pugh, center Max Garcia, right guard J.R. Sweezy, and right tackle Marcus Gilbert should inspire little hope of improvement. It’s entirely possible that Kyler Murray had a better offensive line at Oklahoma than the one he’ll have in the NFL.
Atlanta Falcons: 445
That’s the number of combined snaps for safety Keanu Neal (40) and linebacker Deion Jones (405) in 2018. Jones missed 11 games, and Neal missed 15 games, with various maladies. And when one or both of those players have been off the field for the Falcons since both came into the league in 2016, it’s not been good for Dan Quinn’s defense. With both players, Atlanta has allowed a 63.5 percent completion rate, 6.7 yards per pass, and a touchdown rate of 3.6 percent. With one or both off the field, the Falcons have allowed a 69.0 percent completion rate, 7.5 yards per attempt and a touchdown rate of 6.3 percent. (NFL NextGen Stats)
Both players are expected to return fully healthy for the 2019 season, which is one reason most analysts are high on the team’s prospects. But without these two players, things go south in a big hurry.
Baltimore Ravens: 128
In his eight rookie starts, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson ran the ball 128 times for 640 yards and five touchdowns. That’s more yardage than all but six rookie running backs had in their entire season, and that was by design. When the Ravens decided to replace Joe Flacco with Jackson, Baltimore’s situational running exploded in every possible category.
They went from 33% to 52% in first-half runs, 43% to 69% in first-down runs, 29% to 49% in runs on second-and-long, and from 18% to 53% on running plays when down in the second half. It was one of the most remarkable and graphic in-season transformations in NFL history, and now, Jackson must merge that with the inevitable ask for any big-time quarterback—to throw his way into positive situations when the need arises. Not that Jackson isn’t capable, but this will be interesting to see over a full season. (FO)
Buffalo Bills: 19.7%
Of all quarterbacks who took at least 20% of their team’s snaps in 2018, Bills quarterback Josh Allen led the NFL with 19.7% of his deep attempts traveling 20 or more air yards. Allen completed just 18 of his 63 deep passes for 580 yards, seven touchdowns, and seven interceptions. This fits Allen’s profile as a ridiculously strong-armed quarterback in need of serious development when it comes to reading the field, making quick decisions, and making defenses pay for mistakes. Allen was good for some shot plays as both a passer and a runner, but if the Bills are going to capitalize on a strong draft and free agency haul, Allen must expand his command of the little things—in a big hurry. (PFF)
Carolina Panthers: -18.7%
That was Cam Newton’s DVOA in the second half of the 2018 season, when a shoulder injury greatly limited his efficiency. From weeks 1-9, Newton’s DVOA was +13.2. As Football Outsiders points out in its Almanac, that drop in DVOA is almost exactly the equivalent of the drop in DVOA from Andrew Luck to Blake Bortles.
What’s interesting is that Newton’s statistical drop could have been even worse. For the third straight season, opponents blitzed Newton at a lower percentage than the year before, and Newton was once again far less efficient when blitzed. In 2018, newton’s DVOA dropped from 55.8% with two or three pass-rushers to 18.0% with four pass-rushers and -9.1% with five or more pass-rushers—similar numbers to his 2017 season.
If Newton’s healthy in 2019, that’s great, but if not, expect more of the Panthers team that went 1-7 to finish the season than the one that started off 6-2. (FO)
Chicago Bears: 27
The Bears led the NFL by a wide margin with 27 interceptions last season—the Dolphins finished second with 21, and the Rams and Patriots tied for third with 18. Great numbers, and a tribute to the excellence of former defensive coordinator and new Broncos head coach Vic Fangio, but is this sustainable? Losing Fangio and slot cornerback Bryce Callahan (who had two of those picks) won’t help, but the bigger issue for new defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano and Chicago’s remaining defenders may be regression to the mean.
According to Football Outsiders, teams that lead the league in interceptions per drive in one season tend to regress heavily in the next. And the Bears’ interception per drive rate of 14.8% was the highest since Seattle had a 15.6% rate in 2013. In 2014, the Seahawks regressed to a rate of 7.9%, and while their defense was still historically great, it’s a drop to keep in mind if you’re a Bears fan, and you wonder why the defense isn’t quite as opportunistic in 2019. (FO)
Cincinnati Bengals: 175
175 is the number of total pressures allowed by the Bengals’ offensive line in 2018, tied for eighth-worst in the league with the Panthers and 49ers. The reason we bring this up is that things could be worse in 2019, and that’s not good news for quarterback Andy Dalton and new head coach Zac Taylor. Cincinnati’s line allowed 26 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 136 quarterback hurries despite the fact that left tackle Cordy Glenn held up pretty well last season, with two sacks and 36 total pressures on his number.
But losing first-round prospective left tackle Jonah Williams for the season to a torn labrum is a big hit, as it puts Glenn back out there and makes right tackle Bobby Hart the guy with a target on his back once again. The Bengals inexplicably re-signed Hart to a three-year, $21 million contract despite the fact that he was one of the NFL’s worst pass-blockers in 2018, with 10 sacks, four hits, and 25 hurries allowed. Also, left guard Clint Boling retired in July due to the discovery of a blood clot in his leg. Glenn is the only (relatively) sure thing on that line, so Taylor had better install a lot of quick-passing concepts if he wants to keep his quarterback healthy. (PFF)
Cleveland Browns: 52.8%
In the first half of the 2018 season—weeks 1-9—the Browns ranked 29th in passing DVOA with a mark of -19.5%. Only the Jets, Cardinals, and Bills were worse. That was when rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield was either cooling his heels on the sideline in favor of Tyrod Taylor, or mismanaged on the field by former head coach Hue Jackson and former offensive coordinator Todd Haley. When both men were fired in October, and Haley was replaced by former running backs coach Freddie Kitchens, all heck broke loose in the Browns’ offense, and it was very good for Mayfield.
From Weeks 10-17, the Browns had the best passing offense in the NFL—a 52.8% DVOA, as Kitchens’ expansive concepts married perfectly with Mayfield’s skill set to create quite the juggernaut. Mayfield set the rookie passing touchdown mark at 27 in just 13 starts, and with the addition of Odell Beckham, Jr to that offense, things could be even better in 2019. There’s no real reason to think Mayfield will suffer a sophomore slump—in fact, if there’s one guy capable of putting up second-year numbers the likes of which Patrick Mahomes did in 2018, it might be him. (FO)
Dallas Cowboys: 2,001
With all the talk about how running backs are fungible in the modern NFL, Ezekiel Elliott of the Cowboys has a unique argument against that, and that’s the case as he’s asking for a new contract. Not only has he become as versatile as any back in the NFL with 2,001 yards from scrimmage in 2018, he also led the league with 1,434 rushing yards in a season where his formerly impenetrable offensive was under siege with injuries. Center Travis Frederick missed the entire season with Guillain-Barre Syndrome. Stalwart guard Zack Martin and tackle Tyron Smith also missed time.
Not that it affected Elliott. He set the pace and proved to be a truly transcendent back, as Dallas saw improvement over its 2017 totals in Power Success (short-yardage runs on third or fourth down that leads to a first down), Second Level Yards (carries 5-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) and Open Field Yards (carries 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Zeke also caught a career-high 77 passes for 567 yards and three touchdowns. Elliott should be even better with Frederick back in the fold and better injury luck for everyone else, but he has nothing left to prove regarding his value. (FO)
Denver Broncos: 84.5
John Elway has insisted that new Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco is just entering his prime at age 34, which would be a pretty neat trick. More likely, the decision to trade for Flacco is yet another instance of Elway ironically deluding himself when it comes to analyzing his team’s quarterback situation. Flacco hasn’t had a season in which he’s thrown for more than 20 touchdowns since 2014, which is another interesting trick in today’s NFL. 2014 was Flacco’s last good season, when he threw 27 touchdown passes and had a quarterback rating of 91.0.
Since then, it’s been mystery meat for the Delaware alum, as Flacco’s inaccuracy to the deep part of the field and general inability to scan defenses and read coverages at an advanced level has come back to bite him. Over the last five seasons, only Brock Osweiler (another failed Broncos prospect), Blake Bortles, Josh McCown, and Brian Hoyer have a lower passer rating than Flacco’s 84.5 among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 1,000 passes during that span. Take out his 2014 season, and it gets even worse—only Osweiler has a lower rating than Flacco’s 82.7. Add in Denver’s uncertain receiver situation, and this looks like another example of Elway setting his team up for failure at the most important position. (PFR)
Detroit Lions: 56
Is it time to give Lions cornerback Darius Slay more love? Quite possibly. The six-year veteran from Mississippi State missed the cut in my list of the league’s top 11 outside cornerbacks because he does have a propensity for allowing touchdowns—six in 2018—but he also has 56 passes defensed over the last three seasons. That’s the most in the NFL, and only Marcus Peters of the Rams has more picks than Slay’s 13.
Free-agent slot corner Justin Coleman comes in to play Matt Patricia’s preferred man coverage packages, and you could see a lot of two rookies—third-round Boston College safety Will Harris and fifth-round Penn State cornerback Amani Oruwariye—to see a lot of work in their first NFL campaigns. Patricia is trying to remake the Lions in his own preferred image—think Patriots Midwest—and getting the right kind of defensive backs is clearly an important part of that equation.
Green Bay Packers: 68%
Due to a rare shift in playcalling philosophy in 2018, former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy actually set his offense up with quick screens and shotgun/pistol formations to give his running backs lighter boxes—the Packers faced less than seven defenders on 68% of their offensive snaps. Of course, McCarthy then mismanaged his advantage by rationing carries for second-year man Aaron Jones, despite Jones’ obvious talent. McCarthy’s gonna McCarthy somehow.
That said, new head coach Matt LaFleur brings a mindset that should work to Jones’ advantage. Not only has LaFleur said that he wants to get his backs more involved in the passing game; he also ran the ball far more than his Packers predecessor last season as Tennessee’s offensive coordinator. Jones averaged a league-leading 5.5 yards per carry and scored eight rushing touchdowns on just 133 carries, and he won’t see a lot of eight-man fronts as long as Aaron Rodgers is his quarterback. Most of the Packers’ story is about Rodgers balking at audibles and a rejuvenated defense, but don’t sleep on Jones’ potential. (FO)
Houston Texans: 44.7%
Last season, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson was pressured on 44.7% of his snaps, the most for any quarterback taking at least 50% of his team’s offensive snaps since Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater was harassed on 46.5% of his snaps in 2015. Not a good thing for a guy who missed nine games in his rookie season, but Watson was somehow able to get through all 16 games in 2018.
The good news, we suppose, is that Watson was actually very good under pressure last season—he threw nine touchdown passes to just five interceptions, and completed 57.9% of his passes for a league-leading 1.443 yards. The bad news? 2019 could be more of the same, as the Texans failed to do much in the offseason—at least in the short term—to shore their offensive line up. Drafted tackles Tytus Howard and Max Scharping are developmental players, and Julién Davenport may be the least effective left tackle currently starting on an NFL team. Watson is perfectly capable of managing the game while running for his life; the shame is that his front office doesn’t seem to be able to correct the problem. (PFF)
Indianapolis Colts: 28
One of the more interesting things about Indianapolis’ offense under new head coach Frank Reich is how much Andrew Luck turned into a quick-throwing quarterback—and how much he thrived within that constraint. Luck led the league with 28 touchdown passes and threw just two interceptions on plays in which he had 2.5 seconds or less to get rid of the ball, as opposed to 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on plays lasting 2.6 seconds or longer. This would seem at odds with Luck’s proclivity to throw deep—he had 75 passing attempts of 20 or more air yards last season—but the real efficiency came from timing throws in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
This was a major part of Indianapolis’ turnaround from a 1-5 start to a 11-7 finish, including the playoffs—from Week 7 on, Luck threw 16 touchdowns and no picks on shorter-developing plays, and 10 touchdowns to eight picks on longer-developing ones. Certainly something to monitor as Luck and Reich enter the second year of their professional partnership. (PFF)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 29.5
Of all pass-rushers selected in the 2016 draft, Jacksonville’s Yannick Ngakoue has the most sacks with 29.5—more than Joey Bosa, Chris Jones, DeForest Buckner, or Frank Clark. And it’s not just about sacks with Ngakoue—last season, he had 10 sacks, 24 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures. He also put up 21 total stops in 2018, and when you watch the tape, his effort to get to the quarterback is never in question—as Andrew Luck would attest.
The 24-year-old Maryland alum Is set to make a little over $2.2 million in the final year of his rookie contract, and that’s why he’s currently holding out. If the Jaguars want to rebound from what was a surprisingly down season for a talented defense, they’d do well to rectify this situation as soon as possible. Calais Campbell is still a force, and first-round pick Josh Allen has a ton of potential, but Ngakoue is the epicenter of Jacksonville’s pass rush, and deserves to be paid accordingly.
Kansas City Chiefs: 10
In his first full season as an NFL starter, Patrick Mahomes set the league on fire. He became the third quarterback to throw for 50 touchdowns in a season, joining Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, and he did it at age 23. The argument for regression is strong, of course—what does Mahomes do for an encore after such a season?
Mahomes’ talent and the talent of those around him on the field would seem to buck any argument against severe regression in 2019, but there’s one thing to watch out for. Mahomes had gunslinger tendencies at Texas Tech where he’d throw deep balls into the teeth of defensive clusters aligned to stop him, and though he’s slowed his roll a bit with that stuff, he’s still fearless with the downfield pass. And he paid for it less than perhaps he should have.
Mahomes had just 12 interceptions all season, and just six on his 103 attempts of 20 or more air yards (by far the most in the league), but defenders dropped 10 potential interceptions. If that luck had reversed itself, Mahomes’ 21 Adjusted Interceptions tied him for the league lead. Not that Mahomes is going to become a pick machine overnight, but given the “no risk-it, no biscuit” nature of Kansas City’s passing game, this is one place the regression might happen. (FO)
Los Angeles Chargers: 627
The Chargers finished eighth overall in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted defensive metrics and got all the way to the divisional playoffs despite injuries at the linebacker position that cost them Kyzir White, Denzel Perryman, and Jatavis Brown for varying lengths of time. Their solution to this problem was to put six or more defensive backs on the field for an astonishing 627 of their defensive snaps (the most in the history of FO’s databases), including 46 of 47 snaps against the Ravens in L.A.’s wild-card win. The Patriots were able to turn that idea around with their power running game in the divisional round, but this was a neat construct by defensive coordinator Gus Bradley in an era when too many coaches give up when they don’t have their best players.
Adding veteran linebacker Thomas Davis to a healthier group will allow Bradley to align his units in more traditional fashion if he wants to, but make no mistake—the “big dime” movement is not a fad. The Chargers showed the way to an NFL future, and we can expect to see more teams doing the same, especially against more varied and compelling passing games. (FO)
Los Angeles Rams: -28.2%
That’s the dip in offensive DVOA, Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted efficiency metric, when receiver Cooper Kupp wasn’t on the field due to injury. Sean McVay’s team had a 39.1% offensive DVOA with Kupp and a 10.9% DVOA without him. They also scored 29.0 points per game without him, and 33.4 with him. Kupp missed Weeks 7-8 and 11-17, as well as the entire postseason, and without his primary security blanket from the slot on easily readable route concepts, Jared Goff was not the same quarterback—his own DVOA tanked from 37.3% to -2.2%. Not only did Kupp’s absence make life harder for Goff in finding his targets, it also reduced the frequency and effectiveness of McVay’s backfield motion concepts, which were real defense-killers early in the season. (FO)
Kupp is projected to be back on the field for Week 1 and recovered fully from the torn ACL he suffered last November. Any absence will cause Goff—and the entire offense—to struggle in a relative sense.
Miami Dolphins: 379
Minkah Fitzpatrick played six different positions in Nick Saban’s Alabama defense in 2017, so no surprise that the Dolphins played the first-round rookie all over the place in 2018. And wherever he lined up, Fitzpatrick was excellent, taking on more physical and mental challenges than most first-year NFL defenders could handle. 379 of his 944 snaps came at slot corner, and there, he allowed just 35 catches on 62 targets for 416 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 69.0.
But Fitzpatrick also had 281 snaps at outside corner, 166 at free safety, 95 as a box safety, and 23 at the line of scrimmage. That last stat seems odd, until you realize that Fitzpatrick had a handful of pressures from the line in a role that could expand. He also provided excellent run defense, and along with Derwin James of the Chargers, proved to be the modern face of defensive back versatility at a time when that attribute is more important than ever. Miami isn’t exactly stacked with talent in a process that’s been described as everything from a rebuild to a tank job, but Fitzpatrick has what it takes to be a top defender for years to come. (PFF)
Minnesota Vikings: 83.1
If the Vikings are going to take their top-flight defense, outstanding receiver group, and improving run game to the next level—i.e., a trip to the Super Bowl—quarterback Kirk Cousins is going to have to figure a few things out. And one of Cousins’ bugaboos throughout his career has been a lack of consistency under pressure. In his first year of a three-year, fully-guaranteed $84 million contract, Cousins showed a bit of improvement under pressure—and he had a lot of it behind Minnesota’s patchwork offensive line. Harassed on 38.9% of his 669 dropbacks, Cousins completed 64% Of his pressured passes for 1,425 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 83.1. That rating ranked sixth in the NFL last season among quarterbacks who took at least 50% of their snaps.
Not quite the level of a Russell Wilson (10 touchdowns and three picks under pressure) or Dak Prescott (nine touchdowns and two picks), but hey—even Patrick Mahomes threw eight interceptions to 10 touchdowns under pressure. The difference with Cousins is the relative lack of explosive plays that make up for average efficiency elsewhere. One or the other will have to give if Cousins is to be a franchise-leading quarterback—either he makes up for his issues with major plays, or he cleans up the messes. It’s been that way throughout his career.
New England Patriots: 78
It is the most Bill Belichick thing of all Bill Belichick things to develop a player, let him loose when he becomes too expensive, and replace that player with someone who can provide equivalent production for a lower price. There are few examples more notable than the Patriots letting pass-rusher Trey Flowers test the free-agent market, get a five-year, $90 million contract with $56 million in guarantees, and trading for veteran Michael Bennett to replace Flowers. New England got Bennett from the Eagles for a swap of late-round picks, and revised his contract to a two-year, $16.75 million deal with $4 million in guarantees and a bunch of escalators based on performance and availability.
Bennett’s older than Flowers—33 to Flowers’ 25—but here’s where the swap gets good. Including the postseason, Bennett and Flowers had exactly the same number of total pressures: 78, tied for third among edge defenders behind Dee Ford and J.J. Watt. Bennett had 12 sacks, 22 quarterback hits, and 44 quarterback hurries; Flowers had 11 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 51 hurries. Both players are capable of wreaking havoc outside and inside on the defensive line. So, once again, Bill Belichick fleeces the NFL by understanding player value as nobody else does. (PFF)
New Orleans Saints: 85.0
Pro Football Reference has target and catch percentage totals going back to 1992, and in that time, no receiver has been more efficient turning his targets into catches than Michael Thomas of the Saints was in 2018. Among receivers with at least 100 targets in a season, Thomas’ 85.0% catch rate reigns supreme. He led the league with 125 catches in 2018, for 1,405 yards and nine touchdowns, and he wasn’t just getting by on easy short completions. Per PFF, Thomas was targeted on 12 passes of 20 air yards or more, with eight catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns. And if you think his 2018 catch rate was a fluke, look further down that list—in 2016, he ranked fifth-all time among receivers targeted at least 100 times with a 76.0% catch rate.
Thomas primarily an outside receiver, putting up efficiency numbers alongside slot guys like Wes Welker, Golden Tate, and Randall Cobb. That’s a rare accomplishment, and as Thomas currently holds out for a new contract, the Saints are surely aware of his value to Drew Brees as a quarterback and Sean Payton as a play-caller. New Orleans’ dynamic offense wouldn’t be the same without him for any length of time.
New York Giants: 52.0
Was Duke quarterback Daniel Jones a reach pick with the sixth overall selection in the 2019 draft? That’s a question that can only be answered over time, but certainly Giants general manager Dave Gettleman has seemed in love with the player far beyond his actual exploits. Over three full seasons as the Blue Devils’ starting quarterback, Jones completed 59.9% of his passes for 8,201 yards, 52 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. Not exactly world-beating stuff when two other first-round quarterbacks (Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins) threw 50 touchdown passes in their only seasons as full-time starters.
The advanced metrics do Jones fewer favors. Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, Jones posted a passer rating of 52.0 when under pressure as opposed to 120.4 with a clean pocket. He’ll now be facing defenses that are far more complex, with opponents unlike anything he’s ever seen from a physical perspective. Jones has a lot of weaknesses in his game, which would be less of a problem if Gettleman hadn’t gone all in with Jones as Eli Manning’s replacement—a process that needs to happen sooner than later no matter who’s the next guy in line.
New York Jets: 99.1
Selected third overall in the 2019 draft, USC quarterback Sam Darnold got off to a rough start in the NFL. He dealt with the inevitable next-level adjustment period as well as an ankle injury, and his November was particularly dismal, with no touchdown passes and four interceptions in just one game—an absolute disaster against the Dolphins. But then, Darnold turned it around and started to look like the kind of quarterback who could lead a franchise someday. In four December games, he posted a passer rating of 99.1, good for 14th in the NFL, ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, Baker Mayfield, Andrew Luck, and Aaron Rodgers.
Yes, it’s only one month and the small sample size alerts are appropriate. But Darnold put up strong performances against the Texans and Packers, and shot par against the Bills and Patriots. He finished that last month completing 64% of his passes for 931 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. It’s been a long time since the Jets have had a credible quarterback, and there’s a lot of work to be done with that entire roster, but Darnold did take a lot of positive steps down the stretch. (PFF)
Oakland Raiders: 10
That’s the difference in the number of deep touchdowns thrown by Ben Roethlisberger (15) and Derek Carr (5) in 2018. Now, you should look for an uptick in Carr’s throws of 20 or more air yards with the acquisitions of Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, two of the more dynamic deep receivers in the league. Last season, Carr’s main downfield targets were tight end Jared Cook and receiver Seth Roberts, who had two deep touchdowns each, while Brown had nine for the Steelers, and Williams had three for the Chargers.
Carr hasn’t been known as a great deep thrower throughout his career, but that’s as much to do with the quality of his targets and the conservative nature of his offenses. Last season, Carr completed 23 of his 51 deep throws for 715 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. His 49.)% completion rate on those throws ranked fifth-best in the NFL. Clearly, Jon Gruden wants to open things up in the passing game, and Carr could be an underrated part of that process. (PFF)
Philadelphia Eagles: 118.5
Football Outsiders has a metric called Adjusted Games Lost, which tracks player injuries to every team, the value of the injured players by starter/reserve designation, and if a player returned to the field after suffering an injury. In 2018, only the Buccaneers had worse injury luck than the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, who had 118.5 AGL. The year before, even with the late-season injury to quarterback Carson Wentz that turned Nick Foles into an out-of-nowhere postseason hero, Philly had just 53.5 AGL. That difference of 65 AGL in one season was a big reason (actually the primary reason) the Eagles dropped from 13-3 to 9-7, and made it only as far as the divisional round of the playoffs.
The hits were especially hard on defense, where the team lost chunks of the season from linemen Timmy Jernigan and Derek Barnett, as well as defensive backs Rodney McLeod, Ronald Darby, and Jalen Mills. To his credit, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz did his level best to scheme around the carnage, and if the Eagles’ injury luck regresses back to even the league average, things should look a lot better for this team—as long as Wentz isn’t one of the guys who loses major time. Because, as you probably know, Nick Foles is in Jacksonville now.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 154
The number of passing yards first-round linebacker Devin Bush allowed in his final season at Michigan on 34 targets, and 22 catches on those targets. He also amassed five passes defensed and allowed no touchdowns. The Steelers desperately missed Ryan Shazier in their short and intermediate pass defense last season, as they had nobody who could remotely replicate Shazier’s combination of athleticism and intelligence at the linebacker position. That’s why they did an uncharacteristic thing for the franchise—they traded up in the first round to take Bush 10th overall.
That’s a high spot for a linebacker in today’s NFL, but as the tape shows, Bush is no ordinary linebacker. At 5’11” and 324 pounds, he is the epitome of the modern linebacker as big strong safety, with the ability to do everything from stopping the run to blitzing effectively to taking tight ends and slot receives up the seam. As the Steelers try to turn around what has become a lackluster defense outside of the defensive front, Bush will be a player of primary importance. (PFF)
San Francisco 49ers: 2
49ers safety Antone Exum picked off Philip Rivers in San Francisco’s Week 4 loss to the Chargers, and safety Jaquiski Tartt intercepted a pass thrown by Josh Rosen in San Francisco’s Week 8 loss to the Cardinals.
And that’s it. End scene. Those are the two interceptions logged by the 49ers’ defense in 2018. The Cardinals, Packers, and Lions tied for the second-lowest interceptions last season, which tells you what a bad outlier this really was. And while interceptions are far from the only indicator of pass defense performance, it’s not like there was a bunch of “yeah, but…” in San Francisco’s secondary. The team’s cornerbacks and safeties allowed a combined 30 touchdowns, and no defensive back allowed an opposing passer rating lower than 92.5 (Exum).
The hope is that an improved pass rush, and perhaps healthy versions of Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett, will help. But the 49ers won’t be hosting playoff parties anytime soon without improvement in this department. (PFF)
Seattle Seahawks: 158.3
Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett was targeted 76 times in 2018, catching 61 passes for 1,085 yards and 10 touchdowns. And when Russell Wilson threw the ball to Lockett last season, Wilson was rewarded with a perfect passer rating—158.3 per PFF. That’s the only time it’s happened for a receiver with at least 20% of his team’s snaps since at least 2006. Lockett also had the highest DVOA of any receiver in the history of Football Outsiders’ stats going back to 1986.
All well and good, but with Doug Baldwin’s retirement, more will be asked of Lockett in 2019 and beyond. Already a great deep receiver, Lockett is developing his short-to-intermediate game and could become one of the league’s best in a big hurry. The numbers certainly point in the right direction.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 72.5
That’s the completion percentage the Bucs’ defense allowed in 2018, which basically tells you that as bad as this pass defense looked in real time last season, it was actually worse. Tampa Bay also allowed an opponent passer rating of 110.9 in 2018. To put that in perspective, Seattle’s Russell Wilson in 2018 tied Minnesota’s Daunte Culpepper in 2004 for 16th all time in single-season passer rating with a 110.9 mark. Basically, every quarterback facing this defense in 2018 was in line for an all-time performance.
Not that things are in line for a drastic improvement in 2019, but at least the team replaced defensive coordinator Mike Smith with Todd Bowles, who should bring some schematic diversity to the picture. First-round linebacker Devin White will absolutely help with short to intermediate coverage, and the Bucs drafted three cornerbacks in the second and third rounds to try and right the ship–or at least prevent another Titanic performance. (FO)
Tennessee Titans: 20
In 852 total snaps and 492 pass-blocking snaps, that’s how many total pressures left tackle Taylor Lewan allowed in 2018—two sacks, two quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback hurries. And through his five-year career, Lewan has never allowed more than 29 pressures in a season. This, of course, is relevant because the Michigan alum will miss the first four games of the 2019 season due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.
Lewan has contested the ruling, saying that he didn’t knowingly take the substance in question, but it’s now up to the Titans—and backup tackle Dennis Kelly—to shore up the left side of the line without one of the best in the business through games against the Browns, Colts, Jaguars, and Falcons. It’s a bad way to start for a team looking to get out of the 9-7 purgatory it’s been in for the last three seasons. (PFF)
Washington Redskins: 56.7
The Redskins had Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins fall into their laps with the 15th overall pick in the 2019 draft despite the fact that Haskins, like first overall pick Kyler Murray, had thrown 50 touchdown passes in his final college season. Haskins’ response to this slight?
“To be honest, I’m more motivated now than ever. A bigger chip on my shoulder. The league done messed up.”
Perhaps, but there’s one thing Haskins had better address before NFL defenses come calling—an aversion to efficiency under pressure that showed itself over and over in college, even with his gaudy touchdown totals. Last season, Haskins had a 90.4 quarterback rating from a clean pocket that descended to 56.7 when pressured. As I pointed out a few months back, this issue has it roots in Haskins’ difficulty in making throws on the run, when adjusting his body to pressure, and when he gets rushed up the middle. These aren’t necessarily fatal flaws, but when left tackle Trent Williams is holding out and could be replaced by, um, Ereck Flowers in the regular season if that doesn’t change… well, that’s not at all good. (PFF)
