The Omicron variant is already infecting an estimated 200,000 people a DAY in the UK, as of today, according to modelling for the government.
The staggering estimate is far, far higher than official case numbers. Officials insist the enormous gap is due to the speed at which the strain spreads and the delay in cases being picked up in official tests.
Some 1,576 newly-confirmed cases of the variant were identified today, taking the total since Omicron entered the UK to 4,713.
Yet Health Secretary Sajid Javid told MPs: “The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) estimates that the... current number of daily infections are around 200,000.”
It was not immediately clear if he was referring to 200,000 Covid infections of all kinds, or 200,000 Omicron infections specifically, or another statistic of some kind. 54,661 new positive test results were reported today, even once all types of variants are included.
Yet multiple sources later assured the Mirror that the UKHSA data was referring to the number of people estimated to be newly infected with Omicron today.
It will raise new questions about whether Boris Johnson will have to announce further restrictions, after he refused three times to rule out doing so before Christmas. Nicola Sturgeon could announce extra restrictions in Scotland tomorrow.
No10 insists Plan B is the right approach but has not ruled out further restrictions, saying only that schools would be the last thing to close.
It’s understood that UKHSA modelling suggested around 23,000 people would have got newly-infected with the Omicron variant on December 7. Potential doubling times were then modelled on top of this.
December 7 was six days ago. If Omicron infections doubled every two days, that would suggest just under 200,000 people would have got infected today.
By the same logic, the number of people getting newly infected each day could be 400,000 by the middle of this week and 800,000 by the weekend.
Sources confirmed that UKHSA projections estimate 200,000 people have been, or are about to be, newly infected on December 13.
It’s understood the estimates - which have not been officially published - has a wide margin for error. Questions have been raised by experts about exactly what they show.
But Mr Javid earlier told BBC Breakfast: "The number of infections is doubling every two or three days.
“There's going to be a tidal wave of infection."
The huge gap between confirmed cases and UKHSA projections is down to several factors.
Firstly, some people who are infected do not get a test, and those who do can take days between infection and a positive result.
Secondly, it takes even longer to formally sequence cases to identify which variant they have come from.
Mr Javid today told MPs Omicron represents “over 20% of cases in England” and “we've already seen it rise to over 44% in London”.
He added: “We expect it to become the dominant Covid 19 variant in the capital in the next 48 hours”.
But it is unclear if even those cases are out of date, as the UKHSA estimated 40.8% of London cases were already the Omicron variant as of December 6.
Critics of the government’s Plan B have pointed to South African experts who believe the Omicron strain is less serious than existing variants.
But in a TV address last night, Boris Johnson warned that it spreads to fast that, even if it is less serious, it could still overwhelm the NHS.
The first UK death of someone with Omicron was confirmed today and 10 patients were in hospital at the last count.
Mr Javid warned hospitalisations are set to “dramatically increase in the days and weeks that lie ahead”.
Mr Javid confirmed he will go ahead with plans to replace isolation for Covid contacts with daily lateral flow testing from tomorrow.
Despite the government’s website running out of rapid testing packs, he insisted there were enough in the state’s supplies.
He added people should “check the website the following day” if they cannot order one today.
Mr Javid added the NHS Covid pass was being rolled out to 12 to 15 year olds for purposes of international travel from today.
As the crisis worsens ahead of Christmas, the Government is said to be drawing up a raft of more stringent potential measures.
England’s health officials have been drawing up a so-called 'Plan C' - and an even more draconian 'Plan D’ to tackle the "tidal wave" of omicron spreading across the country.
But Boris Johnson is already facing a massive Tory revolt over Plan B measures.
MPs will vote tomorrow on forcing nightclubs, large events and indoor venues with capacities over 500 to demand Covid passes from their punters as a condition of entry.
This could mean showing they’ve had two doses of a vaccine, or showing they’ve had a negative lateral flow test recently.
Tonight it emerged people who falsify their vaccine or testing status to get into a nightclub could get a £10,000 on-the-spot fine.
Mr Javid also confirmed that the Covid pass will force people to show three doses, not two, after a “reasonable” period.
He said: “Once all adults have had a reasonable chance to get their booster jab, we intend to change this exemption to require a booster dose.”
It came as NHS England returned to its highest level of emergency preparedness, a level 4 national incident.
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