Let us assume the Miami Dolphins win the expected bidding war required to land Deshaun Watson for what equates to four first-round picks.
While I anticipate half the NFL will be bidding on Watson when the Houston Texans finally decide it would be wise to move him, let us envision Dolphins owner Steve Ross encourages his decision makers to bid big, taking an all-in approach to acquire Watson this offseason.
Then what?
Whether the hypothetical deal involves second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa - who would be worth the equivalent of a first-round pick - isn’t significant.
If Houston wants Tagovailoa to be the cornerstone of their rebuild, great.
If they don’t, then Miami can sell Tagovailoa to the highest bidder (maybe the New England Patriots), and will likely get back a deal better than what Miami gave up to acquire Josh Rosen in 2019, sending the Arizona Cardinals a second and fourth-round pick for the disappointing quarterback.
Keep in mind Miami’s interest in Watson isn’t about Tagovailoa, and never was. It’s about acquiring an elite quarterback in his prime, ending the search this franchise has been on since Dan Marino retired in 1999.
I am of the opinion – and it’s a firm one - that the Watson paired with this Dolphins defense – assuming Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard isn’t part of the package sent to Houston, and he very well might be – could turn Miami into a perennial playoff team for the next two to three seasons.
Especially if the Dolphins upgrade the tailback position, which will likely happen considering there are only three tailbacks presently on the roster, and the team typically carries five.
So let us hypothetically say Miami sends Houston pick No. 3, No. 18, Tagovailoa and Miami’s 2022 first-round pick and gets back Watson, who is one of the NFL’s top 20 players (I’m being conservative), a quarterback coming off a career year who is under contract, and in his prime (25 years old).
Put that with a defense that finished first in the NFL in turnovers created (29), and sixth overall in points allowed last season, and the Dolphins should be a force in 2021 if the defense doesn’t regress, which is possible.
Because Watson’s cap hit is reasonable this season ($15.9 million) before ballooning up to $40.4 million in 2022, this would be the offseason to take an all-in approach with free agent signings because Ross’ credit card would need to be put away in coming years.
That is the consequence of carrying the second largest contract in the NFL, which is what the five years and $146.5 million left on the extension Watson signed in 2020 creates.
Miami would end up paying $29.3 million a season for an elite quarterback without reworking the deal, which would eventually happen to create cap space, and keep the quarterback happy.
That is manageable, and the price of doing business with upper echelon quarterbacks, and writing big checks to quarterbacks hasn’t stopped the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers from making smart moves to build their team properly.
It just requires efficient, and effective drafting, which the Dolphins haven’t exactly masters, but are working towards achieving under General Manager Chris Grier’s leadership.
Trading Watson for the package proposed doesn’t prevent Miami from building through the draft this season. Even if they sent Houston pick No. 3 and No. 18 the Dolphins would still have two first-round picks (No. 36 and No. 50), a third-round selection (No. 81), a fourth (No. 113) and two more seventh round picks to create an influx of youngsters.
Those six picks could be used to address Miami’s position needs – yards after catch (YAC) receiver, tailback, center, defensive end, inside linebacker – if the Dolphins decide not to address them in free agency, which is also an option.
So many would be caught up with Watson not having capable weapons around him in Miami, but I’d agree that DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Preston Williams and Lynn Bowden Jr. could thrive with Watson as their quarterback because of his knack for extending plays, buying his targets time to get open.
If the Dolphins added Alabama tailback Najee Harris, North Carolina’s Javonte Williams, or Clemson’s Travis Etienne at tailbacks, and drafted a receiver like Western Michigan’s D’Wayne Eskridge, North Texas’ Jaelon Darden, Louisville’s Tutu Atwell, South Carolina’s Shi Smith or UCLA’s Demetric Felton in the later rounds of the 2021 draft Miami would have enough of an arsenal to produce a top 10 offense with Watson pulling the trigger.
That is why the Dolphins are attractive to Watson and his camp. Miami provides the quarterback a team that can help him build his legacy. And whatever Miami would give up to get him doesn’t derail that.
