Older voters have shifted towards the Tories after the success of the Covid jab roll-out, a leading election expert has claimed.
Tory peer Lord Hayward tipped Boris Johnson to benefit from a vaccines bounce in May's elections among those who had already received a jab.
The polling guru said the Tories have opened up a “six or seven per cent” lead since the roll-out began in December, when Labour were “neck and neck”.
He told reporters: “It is the older generations who have moved most markedly to the Conservatives - basically the cohort from 54 upwards. Now the significant thing is, they are the people who vote in local elections.”
Lord Hayward, who used polling from Savanta ComRes, added: “It is quite noticeable. It was first of all the age group from 64 upwards that moved. There’s some sign now that the 55-year-old and upwards are also moving.
“And interestingly enough, they are the people who have received their vaccinations.
“So there’s clearly an element of vaccine bounce. I think it goes hand in hand - I don’t think it’s chance.”
Dubbed Super Thursday, May 6 will see a bumper set of elections including contests which were delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Up for grabs will be around 143 English councils, the 129-member Scottish Parliament and 60-member Welsh Parliament.
There will also be elections for eight metro mayors including London’s delayed contest, five City mayors, 40 police commissioners and the London Assembly.
Residents of Bristol, Liverpool and Salford are among those set to cast four votes on the same day - for metro mayors, mayors, councillors and police commissioners.
And some residents in London’s Tower Hamlets will have five votes - the London Mayor, list, Assembly, and two referendums.
Lord Hayward’s analysis suggested the Tories have more to lose than Labour, defending around 2,070 English council seats compared to Labour’s 1,630.
Conservative councillors also gained more than 400 English seats when the same areas were up for election four years ago.
But the vaccine rollout has given Boris Johnson a boost despite his disastrous handling of the pandemic last year, with more than 125,000 deaths.
By May 6 projections suggest many Brits aged 40 to 50 will have had their first dose of the jab - with almost 25million getting it to date.
Analysis for Lord Hayward has also claimed Boris Johnson’s personal ratings are low in London but much higher in some parts of northern England, where a string of ‘Red Wall’ seats fell to the Tories in 2019.
Voters will be told to bring their own pencils on May 6 due to Covid-19, while parties struggle to field a full slate of candidates.
Councils are also expected to struggle with staffing polling stations, and the vast majority are set to ditch the traditional overnight count of results.
Lord Hayward said: “I expect large numbers of counts to be running from Friday into Saturday, into Sunday and possibly into Monday and Tuesday.”
