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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Oil price hits one-year high, as 'soft Brexit' hopes boost sterling – as it happened

Brent crude prices have spiked since Opec members agreed to cut production
Brent crude prices have spiked since Opec members agreed to cut production Photograph: Alamy

Right, that’s all for today. A quick recap.

December has got off to a lively start in the financial markets, with big moves in the commodity and foreign exchange arenas.

Traders have driven the oil price sharply higher for the second day running. Brent crude has hit its highest level since October 2015, jumping by almost 5% to $54.31 per barrel.

Despite questions over compliance, yesterday’s Opec deal is being seen as a real game-changer that could push prices higher - meaning fresh inflationary pressures and higher prices at the petrol pumps.

The pound has also romped higher today, after Brexit minister David Davis offered the tantalising prospect of the UK paying to access the EU single market.

The comments, made in parliament, fuelled hopes that Britain might avoid a ‘hard Brexit’. Sterling hit two-month highs, before dipping a little -- and is currently up 0.5% at $1.257.

Government bonds have also sold off today, driving up the yield on benchmark US debt. UK borrowing costs also rose, with the yield on 10-year gilts up from 1.5% to 1.51%.

And European stock markets have closed in the red:

  • FTSE 100: down 30 points at 6752, -0.45%
  • German DAX: down 106 points at 10534, -1%
  • French CAC: down 17 points at 4560, -0.4%

Investors are fretting about Sunday’s Italian referendum on constitutional reforms, and Austria’s presidential election (between a far-right candidate and a Green).

Get swotting up now!

Over on Wall Street, machine and equipment firm Caterpillar briefly suspended its shares today so it could warn that analysts profit expectations are ‘too optimistic’.

Caterpillar cited various headwinds, such as Brexit uncertainty, Europe’s slow recovery and volatility in the oil price. It also warned that any infrastructure programme from Donald Trump probably wouldn’t help its earnings in 2017.

This is the key slide from its presentation to analysts:

..

Caterpillar’s share price has been rising for weeks, on speculation that Trump’s plans to upgrade America’s highways, airports and schools will mean more demand for its diggers and trucks.

But Wall Street isn’t too worried by today’s warning; Caterpillar’s shares have resumed trading, up 0.25% on the day.

BP signs off on Mad Dog 2 oil project

Sunset over the Gulf of Mexico from Venice Beach in Venice Florida.
Sunset over the Gulf of Mexico from Venice Beach in Venice Florida. Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

Now this is interesting....oil giant BP has signed off on a $9bn project to expand its Mad Dog oil field in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The decision follows extensive work bringing the cost of the project down (at one stage, it was going to cost $20bn). And it shows that oil firms are prepared to invest in new projects, if they think the oil price makes it worthwhile.

BP chief executive Bob Dudley says:

“This announcement shows that big deepwater projects can still be economic in a low price environment in the US if they are designed in a smart and cost-effective way.

“It also demonstrates the resilience of our strategy which is focused on building on incumbent positions in the world’s most prolific hydrocarbon basins while relentlessly focusing on value over volume.”

But.... BP can never shake off memories of an earlier project in the Gulf, the Deepwater Horizon disaster at the Macondo oil field in 2010. Eleven workers were killed when the rig caught fire, creating one of the worst environmental disasters ever.

Central Bank news! Agustin Carstens, head of the Bank of Mexico, has resigned.

Carstens, one of the world’s most experienced central bankers, has been appointed to run the Bank of International Settlements (BIS is basically the central bankers’ central bank).

He will leave the Bank of Mexico in July 2017, and start at BIS three months later.

Carstens deserves a change of job, having been battling to handle the impact of Donald Trump’s pronouncements on the Mexican Peso.

Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough says the news adds extra uncertainty, with Mexico already expected to hike interest rates next month:

The top rung of central banking is a little like Formula 1 -- with a small number of candidates moving between a limited number of seats.

So Carstens’ appointment may have a knock-on effect on the European Central Bank; board member Benoît Cœuré could possible have got the BIS job, but is now free for other challenges...

Updated

Brent crude hits 2016 high

Boom! The Brent crude oil price has just hit its highest level of the year.

A barrel of Brent for February delivery just changed hands at $53.79, which is the most expensive since October 2015.

Opec’s surprise supply cut is forcing traders to rapidly reassess their expectations.

Jane Sydenham, investment director at Rathbone Investment Management, calls it a ‘knee jerk’ reaction to yesterday’s deal:

“Whilst at present the news is good for the markets, it is much more difficult to say how this will play out in the longer term.

We’re currently experiencing a knee-jerk reaction, unsurprising since this is the biggest co-ordinated action in eight years. It is likely that this will run on for a little while longer but how the markets price in the unexpected oil inflation is something we are yet to see.”

Iain Duncan Smith

Former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith, who campaigned for Brexit, has criticised the idea that Britain might make payments to the EU after leaving the bloc.

He was responding to David Davis’s suggestion that the UK would consider the idea.

PA has the story:

Prominent Brexit-backer Iain Duncan Smith claimed Mr Davis had given a “convoluted” answer and may have been talking about “bridging arrangements” to phase out UK contributions to the EU.

The former cabinet minister insisted there was no way of reaching a deal to pay the EU for access to the single market.

He told BBC Radio 4’s The World At One:

“My sense is that I don’t think that he was absolutely answering the question that was posed to him.

“What he’s talking about here is how do you get a deal that allows British and Europeans to access each others’ markets without the necessity of tariff barriers or artificial barriers against service etc.

“I don’t think there’s any way in which you can reach a deal whereby you say ‘I’ll pay some money in and therefore you allow us access’, because you might as well have tariff barriers at that point.”

Other Brexit supporters have also expressed disquiet about this idea in the past; but it all depends on the kind of Brexit deal that Theresa May goes for.

Today’s pound rally follows the currency’s best month since 2009.

Sterling gained 6% against the euro in November, 1,5% against the US dollar, and almost 15% against the Japanese yen.

It may show that the markets are becoming less worried about the UK, following more solid economic data since June’s Brexit vote.

Kathleen Brooks of City Index says:

Momentum is particularly strong against the yen and its recent performance has been staggering, GBPJPY is up more than 14% since the start of November!

Political risks around Brexit are receding, as political risks elsewhere start to bite. The cost to insure UK sovereign debt has fallen sharply since spiking back in June.

Good economic news from America: its factory sector is growing at its fastest pace since the Brexit vote.

The ISM manufacturing index has jumped to 53.2 in November, from 51.9 in October, which is the fastest rate since June. Firm said they were benefitting from strong domestic demand.

A rival survey, from Markit, was also just released. It’s even more encouraging, showing activity rising at a 13-month high.

No wonder City traders may be looking frazzled:

The US crude oil price has hit a five-week high, as traders push it through the$50 per barrel mark.

.

Brent crude price hits new highs

Oil is surging even higher, as commodity traders continue to react to the Opec supply cut deal hammered out yesterday.

Brent crude is now up 3% at $53.44 per barrel, a near two-month high, and a really substantial surge from $46/barrel before the Opec meeting.

Opec’s decision to cut output by 1.2m barrels per day looks like a real game-changer.

The group’s secretary general, Mohammed Barkindo, is telling Bloomberg TV right now that it was a “historic landmark”

Sam Wahab, director of oil and gas research at Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, believes the price could keep rising:

“Yesterday’s agreement has truly changed the landscape for oil over the coming years, putting a floor of $50 a barrel under oil prices.

“Prior to this agreement, the environment of sub $50 oil was likely to persist, but this move sufficiently addresses the supply/demand dynamics, with some 3.5% of supply being cut from January.

“It means 2017 will likely see prices around the $55-$60 a barrel mark, and we may yet see further jumps in prices as soon as next week if the non-OPEC members also agree a production cut at their meeting on Friday 9th December.

Today’s rally has pushed the pound to nearly a three-month high against the euro.

That means it’s just 8% below its pre-referendum levels (having been down 15% at one stage).

The pound vs the euro
The pound vs the euro Photograph: Thomson Reuters

The pound just spiked even higher against the US dollar, after the latest American unemployment figures hit the wires.

Sterling hit $1.268, up 1.7 cents, as data showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefit has hit a 5-month high.

The initial jobless claims figure rose to 268,000 last week, up from 251,000.

City experts: Soft Brexit hopes sent pound humping

Here’s some more reaction to David Davis’s comments, and the bounce in the pound:

Craig Erlam, chief market analyst with retail brokerage Oanda:

“The idea that single market is still a priority is a move away from the ‘hard Brexit’ line.

Since the two or three major selloffs we saw earlier this year, the Bank of England has changed its stance to holding rates next year, the data has been better and now the rhetoric has softened.”

Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital:

“Sterling is on the tear this morning on hopes for a soft Brexit.

“David Davis said the UK could contribute to the EU budget in return for access to markets and that has fuelled a rally for the pound.”

Chris Saint, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Currency Service

“Sterling’s rehabilitation is gathering steam, having broken through the €1.19 level against the euro today for the first time in almost three months.

A surge of nearly 1% versus the US dollar has also lifted the pound back above US$1.26. Gains come amid signs of a more compromising approach to upcoming Brexit negotiations from the UK government, with Brexit minister David Davis saying Britain would consider contributing to the EU budget in return for retaining access to European markets.

Updated

Our Politics Live blog has full coverage of David Davis’s comments on Brexit:

Pound hits 12-week high against the euro

David Davis’s suggestion that the UK could pay for access to European markets after Brexit have also sent the pound rallying against the euro.

Sterling has gained nearly one eurocent to €1.19, its highest point since September 7th.

Caxton FX analyst Alexandra Russell-Oliver says that Davis’s comments are pushing the pound up.

She also points out that the euro is suffering from fears of political instability, with two important votes taking place on Sunday:

The pound rally, which has occurred against most major currencies has follows comments from Brexit Secretary Davis, which indicate that the UK may be willing to make trade-offs for access to the single market.

The euro is currently under pressure in anticipation of the Italian Constitutional Referendum and Austrian Presidential Election, taking place on Sunday, where shock results could result in further volatility.

Pound jumps after minister hints at EU payments

The pound has surged by 1% this morning after Brexit secretary David Davis suggested that the UK could make payments in return for access to the European markets.

The comments have fuelled hopes in the City that Britain might avoid a ‘hard Brexit’, and that Britain’s financial services industry, for example, could retain access to the single market after 2019 (the likely exit date).

Our political reporter Jess Elgot explains what happened:

David Davis has suggested that the government would consider making contributions to the EU budget in exchange for access to the single market, saying his Department for Exiting the EU would consider all options to get the best deal with the bloc.

During questions in the House of Commons, the Labour MP Wayne David asked if the Brexit secretary would “consider making any contribution in any shape or form for access to the single market”.

Davis said the government would look at the options during the article 50 process over the next two years. “The major criterion here is that we get the best possible access for goods and services to the European market,” he said. “And if that is included in what he is talking about, then of course we would consider it.

Here’s her full story:

This chart shows how the pound surged by one and a half cents, or 1.2%, since Davis’s comments, to $1.2650.

The pound vs the US dollar today
The pound vs the US dollar today Photograph: Thomson Reuters

That’s its highest level since the US election three weeks ago.

Neil Jones, head of FX hedge fund sales at Mizuho, told Reuters that some traders have been racing to buy the pound -- or unwind bets against sterling.

“These headlines suggesting Britain may be able to access the single market are generating substantial sterling demand from traders and investors looking to reduce their short positions and unwind hedges.”

Updated

Get ready for higher petrol costs

Consumers should brace for higher petrol prices soon, warns Michelle McGrade, chief investment officer of TD Direct Investing:

“It’s been clear for some time that the low price of oil has been hurting producers. In my view, it was only a matter of time before OPEC decided to cut production.

A higher oil price, together with a strong US dollar, makes things tougher for UK consumers because not only will petrol be more expensive, but this could fuel a stronger surge in inflation than originally expected, as inflation is highly correlated to the price of oil.

The combination makes for an unwelcome gift just before Christmas.

We’ve checked with the AA about the report that filling up a car will soon cost an extra £5.

They say that’s based on oil hitting $60 -- so we’re not there yet. But the 12% jump in the oil price this week is still going to hurt drivers...

Back to Opec.... and the oil price is clinging onto today’s gains, as analysts keep kicking the tires of yesterday’s deal.

Brent crude is hovering around $52.50, a 1.2% gain today.

That means it has surged by 12% since yesterday morning, just before Opec’s members sat down and hammered out the supply cuts deal.

Brent crude over the last three months
Brent crude over the last three months Photograph: Thomson Reuters

City traders are pondering:

  1. Will Opec members actually deliver the production cuts they signed up to yesterday?
  2. Will non-Opec members support the deal by cutting supply (as Opec hopes)?

Neil Wilson of ETX Capital says this uncertainty means the oil price could fall back:

OPEC has suggested the deal is contingent on getting this 600,000 b/d from non-OPEC – we don’t yet know if it could unravel if this doesn’t happen.

There are lots of pieces in the jigsaw that are yet to fall into place. If OPEC members stick to the script and if non-OPEC comes up with the goods we might be on for further gains in crude. If not this rally could easily lose momentum and fade.

And.... the more the oil price goes up, though, the more incentive there is for US shale producers to turn their pumps back on.

Bloomberg Gadfly writer Liam Denning reckons this issue will be crucial:

Supporting the market in this way hands an opportunity to U.S. exploration and production firms to hedge future production at higher prices and expand their own drilling budgets to fill some of the gap left by Saudi Arabia, Russia and others.

Over the next six months, we will see if OPEC’s coalition can hold. Assume it does -- a huge assumption at this point -- and in the following six months we will see how much the frackers will do to undermine it.

His full take is here:

Eurozone unemployment FINALLY falls below 10%

Now this really is a moment..... unemployment across the eurozone has fallen below 10% for the first time in over five years, and is now at a seven-year low.

Eurostat reports that the jobless rate fell to 9.8% in October. September’s figure has been revised down to 9.9% (from 10%).

Eurozone unemployment hasn’t been below 10% since April 2011, and October’s reading is actually the lowest since 2009.

.

Over the last year, unemployment has fallen in 24 of Europe’s 28 members.

The largest annual decreases were registered in Croatia (from 16.1% to 12.7%), Spain (from 21.2% to 19.2%) and Slovakia (from 11.1% to 9.1%).

Italy and France have also reported falls in unemployment, as Europe’s slow-but-steady recovery continues.

Experts: Inflation pressure building on UK factories

Economists fear that British factories could hike their prices to help them handle a sharp rise in raw material costs since the summer.

George Nikolaidis, senior economist at EEF, says the weaker pound is both a challenge and an opportunity for manufacturing:

While the more competitive exchange rate means UK manufacturers are well positioned to capitalise on the recovery in demand in key export markets, higher input costs are coming through the manufacturing supply chain thick and fast to put the squeeze on profit margins.

Manufacturers are inevitably looking to pass these costs on to customers adding to the inflationary pressures already building up in the UK economy.”

Mike Rigby, head of manufacturing at Barclays also believes consumers will be hit by higher prices next year:

Exporters continue to take advantage of a weak sterling but it is increasingly looking like a case of having to take the rough with the smooth as businesses start to pass on higher import costs, which could accelerate inflationary pressures as we enter 2017.”

And Jeremy Cook of World First fears that the recent jump in output could be slowing:

UK factory growth slows

Breaking: Growth in Britain’s manufacturing sector slowed last month, despite the weak pound helping firms export abroad.

The UK factory PMI, which measures activity across the sector, has fallen to 53.4, down from 54.4 in October.

That’s weaker than the City expected, but it does still show that the sector has expanded for four month running -- as the initial Brexit shock quickly ebbed away.

Firms reported that output and new orders both expanded at a solid date.

Uk manufacturing PMI

Markit, which compiles the figures, also warns that the weak pound is driving up import costs -- as well as making UK goods more attractive to overseas buyers.

The effects of the weak sterling exchange rate continued to be felt by manufacturers during November.

On the plus side, the boost to export competitiveness led to a further increase in new business from abroad. Companies reported improved demand from the USA, mainland Europe and the Middle East.

The negative impact of the exchange rate was felt on the cost side. Average purchase prices rose at a pace close to October’s near six-year record and again at one of the fastest rates in the survey history.

The Financial Times has a good piece about how some Opec members are paying a higher price than others to get the deal through:

Here’s a flavour:

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies, including Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Qatar, have agreed to shoulder the bulk of the cuts. They are banking on a quick recovery in price to ensure they do not lose revenues or surrender market share to other suppliers.

Iran and Iraq, which sit outside the Gulf bloc in the Middle East, have sacrificed less. Most oil analysts see the limited concessions they made to let the deal succeed as largely face-saving technical measures to placate the Saudis.

Other members from Venezuela to Angola, which have agreed to cut part of their output in support of a 1.2m barrel-a-day reduction, have a patchy record of compliance with past deals. Despite Wednesday’s price surge, they may need an ongoing recovery to be convinced to do their share.

Eurozone factory growth hits highest since January 2014

Newsflash: Europe’s factor sector has posted its strongest growth in close to three years.

Data firm Markit’s monthly manufacturing PMI has risen to 53.7, up from 53.5 in October. Any reading over 50 shows an expansion, and this is the best reading since January 2014.

The sector was driven by the Netherlands, Austria and Spain - while poor old Greece suffered its biggest contraction in a year.

Factories also reported that cost pressures are rising sharply, meaning they’re paying more for raw materials. Opec’s production cut may make that worse....

Dominic Rossi, global CIO equities at Fidelity International, urges caution:

“I would not get too excited by the Opec cut. Compliance will be a problem, and the Russians will pump more gas instead.

In the meantime, the long-run marginal cost of US shale continues to fall. I would not chase this oil price rally too hard.”

Opec deal: What the analysts say

City experts are a little sceptical that Opec’s deal will actually push oil prices much higher.

Spanish banking group BBVA suggest warn that “implementing and monitoring” the deal could be constrained by “geopolitical factors” (for example, Saudi Arabia and Iran are already backing rival sides in the Yemen conflict)

Australia’s ANZ bank point out that US shale producers could boost their own output, keeping a lid on prices.

City analyst Louise Cooper questions suggests Iraq can stick to the deal:

(Some of Iraq’s oil fields are based in Iraqi Kurdistan, to the north of the country, where the peshmerga military forces are based)

The Wall Street Journal has created an excellent graphic, showing how Opec has created the current oil glut by pumping harder, while US shale producers have cut back:

Opec’s output

The WSJ also explains how Saudi and Iran managed to settle on a deal:

The member countries were faced with a “very deep” abyss of low oil prices, and that won out over politics, said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit and a longtime oil-market watcher. “OPEC is back in business,” Mr. Yergin said in an interview. “This will rank as one of their historic decisions.”

Saudi Arabia and Iran, whose differences blocked a deal that aimed to freeze production earlier this year, made the deal possible by coming to a tortured compromise on production figures. Iran was allowed to increase its production by 90,000 barrels a day, a significant victory for the Islamic Republic as it tries to rebuild its economy after the end of Western sanctions.

But the deal allows both Iran and Saudi Arabia to claim a win, by pointing to different sets of numbers. Iran, using production figures generated by OPEC, can say it is raising output, while Saudi Arabia can point to the Islamic Republic’s output figures and say that Iran is agreeing to a cut.

“It’s a good day for the oil market, it’s a good day for the oil industry,” Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said after the deal was reached.

Shares in energy companies are jumping today too.

In London, Royal Dutch Shell and BP are leading the risers on the FTSE 100; a higher oil price should mean higher profits.

The best-performing shares on the Footsie this morning
The best-performing shares on the Footsie this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says trader are ignoring concerns that the deal may not stick (especially if non-Opec members don’t agree their own cuts).

Long-term apprehension surrounding the deal (and the potential for a pick-up in US shale production) will be thrown to the back of investors’ minds as Brent regains a $52 handle and US Crude fast approaches $50 per barrel. How long can the post-deal rally last?

Opec deal will drive petrol prices up

Opec’s deal is bad news for motorists, as higher crude prices will swiftly lead to more expensive petrol.

The front page of today’s Times declares that it could mean a litre of fuel costs 10p more, which swiftly adds up:

Motorists face paying £5 more to fill up an average family car after a Saudi-led cartel struck a rare deal to boost the price of oil.

Oil prices jumped by 8.9 per cent to $50.45 a barrel yesterday after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), which pumps a third of the world’s oil, agreed to limit output for the first time in eight years.

Motoring groups warned that the agreement was likely to create an “unwelcome Christmas present” for families by sharply pushing up prices on the forecourt.

Petrol fell to 101p a litre in February after oil plunged to $27 a barrel as Iran increased production when sanctions were lifted. Some analysts now predict that oil could rise to $60 a barrel. According to estimates, this could push petrol to a two-year high of 123p a litre, from 114p today.

Oil keeps rising after Opec deal

The oil price has extended its gains this morning as the financial markets continue to digest Opec’s output cut deal.

US crude oil smashed through $50 per barrel for the first time in a month this morning.

Brent crude - oil sourced from the North Sea - jumped by another 1% to $52.73.

Yesterday, oil surged by over 8% as it became clear that Opec had, for once, come up with a plan to tackle the oil glut.

Traders are genuinely surprised that Opec members put their differences behind them in Vienna this week, and agreed to cut 1.2m barrels off their daily output, to 32.5m.

Russia also caught the experts out; it is backing Opec’s deal by promising to trim its own output by 300,000 barrels per day.

That means that non-Opec members may, as Opec hopes, chip in with a 600,000bpd reduction.

Chris Weston of IG explains that this could give the deal extra teeth:

The consensus was that we would get some sort of loose agreement from the collective that kept oil supported, but left the market asking many more questions.

What we have seen however has been real meat on the bone, not just from gaining an understanding around production cut allocations from the more tricky OPEC members, including Iran and Iraq, but it seems Russia was so enthused by what they heard that they have increased their own production cut levels from 200,000 to 250,000 to 300,000 a day through the first half in 2017.

Opec’s production cut deal
Opec’s production cut deal Photograph: Bloomberg TV

Updated

The agenda: Opec deal reaction and manufacturing data

OPEC President Qatar’s Energy Minister al-Sada yesterday.
OPEC President Qatar’s Energy Minister al-Sada yesterday. Photograph: Heinz-Peter Bader/Reuters

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Opec members are still in celebratory mood after agreeing their first output cut in almost a decade.

The oil cartel defied the sceptics yesterday, by announcing it would slash production by 1.2m barrels per day, in an attempt to tackle the glut of crude oil in the market. As we covered yesterday, this sent the oil price soaring - and we’re seeing further gains this morning.

Analysts are now wondering if the deal will hold, and what it means for other producers, consumers, and the global economy.

Also coming up today...

Data firm Markit is publishing its latest manufacturing PMI reports, showing how factories around the globe fared last month.

The big news overnight is that China’s manufacturing sector beat forecasts, expanding at its fastest rate in over four years.

This may signal that China is, once again, relying on traditional smokestack “industries” industries for growth, rather than transforming into a consumer-driven economy.

We find out how Britain, and Europe, performed in the next couple of hours:

Here’s what to watch out for:

  • 9am GMT: eurozone manufacturing PMI
  • 9.30am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI
  • 2.45pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI

And there are also signs today that Britain’s housing market is slowing. The Nationwide building society has reported that prices only rose by 0.1% in November, meaning prices were just 4.4% higher than a year ago.

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