Ohio State vs. Northwestern: Big Ten Championship prediction and game preview.
Ohio State vs. Northwestern: Big Ten Championship Broadcast
Date: Saturday, December 19
Game Time: 12:00 pm
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Network: FOX
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Ohio State (5-0) vs Northwestern (6-1) Game Preview
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Three Reasons Why You Should Watch The Big Ten Championship
– What does Ohio State have to do to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff? At this point, just win, and the team is almost certainly in no matter what – at worst, the CFP No. 4 Buckeyes will be one of a possible four Power Five conference champs with a win – and will almost certainly be off to the Rose Bowl as the 2 or 3 seed. However, it wouldn’t be a bad thing just to cement the spot with a dominant performance.
– Northwestern has a few Big Ten championships with the 1995 season the last outright title, and now under Pat Fitzgerald it’s in the title game for the second time in three seasons. Absolutely no one is talking about the possibility of something bigger, though.
Could Northwestern actually get into the College Football Playoff if it beats the No. 4 team in the country and is a 7-1 Big Ten champion? The loss to Michigan State might make it too tough a task, but a win would put pressure on the committee.
– It’s happening right out of the gate. It’s not one of the night games like it usually is, kicking off at noon at the same time as the Big 12 Championship and before the NFL games. It’s going to be a tone-setting game for the rest of Championship Saturday – maybe. Notre Dame and Clemson will know where they stand in the afternoon ACC Championship.
Why does that matter in any way? If Ohio State wins in a blowout, one spot is locked in. If it stumbles in a loss or doesn’t look great, that could change the narrative a bit, especially for the SEC Championship and Florida’s distant dream of getting into the CFP.
Why Ohio State, Northwestern Will Win
What’s Going to Happen, Prediction, History
NEXT: Why Ohio State Will Win, Why Northwestern Will Win, Ohio State vs. Northwestern Prediction
Why Ohio State Will Win
– The Buckeyes have the ability to turn the lights out in a hurry. Northwestern needs the pace to be low-scoring and relatively slow, and Ohio State’s offense can hit the big play and go on the fast scoring marches to end this in two drives. Despite a comeback earlier in the year against Iowa and a good push in the loss to Michigan State, this isn’t a team built for big rallies.
– The Ohio State running game has improved as the season has gone on. JK Dobbins might not be around anymore, but the ground attack hit 200 yards in each of the first three games and then rolled for over 300 in each of the last two games. What’s scariest was the performance against Michigan State – the Buckeyes rumbled for 322 yards despite missing most of the key pieces on the O line.
– Turnovers – they shouldn’t be a problem. Northwestern can’t do this without being at least a +3 in the turnover margin, but that’s not going to be easy. After coming up with nine takeaways in the first three games and five against Wisconsin, there was just one in the last two games.
Justin Fields might have thrown three picks against Indiana, Ohio State was still +1 in turnover margin. The team has yet to be on the wrong side, being at least +1 in every game and +7 on the year.
– Championship Week Schedule & Predictions
Why Northwestern Will Win
– No one does a better job of slowing things down and mucking things up. Wisconsin might be better at making teams play a certain style, and nationally, Kentucky is normally wonderful at dominating the tempo, but Northwestern is brilliant as it gets at dominating on third downs and getting opponents out of their groove.
You can’t make a mistake against this team. It’s fantastic at hanging around, hanging around, hanging around, and then … boom. There’s an opening, and then it takes full advantage. Just ask Iowa how that works.
– The Northwestern pass defense has been a brick wall. Purdue leads the Big Ten in passing, and it was held down to 263 yards and just over five yards per throw. Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz couldn’t stop throwing picks, Maryland and Iowa each gave up three interceptions, and overall, teams have combined to connect on 51% of their passes with seven touchdowns and 12 picks against the nation’s leader in pass efficiency defense.
– When healthy – and as it turned out against Michigan State, even when it isn’t – the Ohio State offensive line has been strong for the running game. However, it’s struggling a bit at keeping aggressive defensive fronts out of the backfield. Part of that is Justin Fields holding on to the ball and trying to make things happen, and part of it is a problem.
Northwestern doesn’t generate a ton of sacks or tackles for loss, but it’s a bit by design. There’s enough pressure coming to be a problem.
NEXT: What’s Going To Happen, Ohio State vs. Northwestern Prediction, Big Ten Championship History
What’s Going To Happen
As it turns out, after all of the fake outrage over the Big Ten changing the rules to get Ohio State into the championship – even though it was the league’s only unbeaten team and beat Indiana – the Hoosiers wouldn’t have been able to play in this anyway.
Northwestern will be plucky.
Ohio State will score fast, but it won’t be enough to put the game out of reach right out of the gate. The Wildcats will hang around enough to make it interesting, and then Justin Fields will take over.
The Buckeye running game will be good enough to be a bother, and Fields will connect on two big home runs to put it out of reach. Northwestern won’t have the ability to come back, the charged up Ohio State defense will dominate the last ten minutes, and the Big Ten will have either the No. 2 or 3 spot in the College Football Playoff locked up.
Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs. Northwestern Prediction, Line
Ohio State 38, Northwestern 17
Bet on Ohio State vs. Northwestern with BetMGM
Ohio State -20.5, o/u: 57.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
Must See Rating: 3.5
5: Mank
1: Saved By The Bell
Big Ten Championship History
2019 Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 21
2018 Ohio State 45, Northwestern 24
2017 Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 21
2016 Penn State 38, Wisconsin 31
2015 Michigan State 16, Iowa 13
2014 Ohio State 59, Wisconsin 0
2013 Michigan State 34, Ohio State 24
2012 Wisconsin 70, Nebraska 31
2011 Wisconsin 52, Michigan State 39
