The initial preseason SP+ rankings, by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, were released Thursday morning, and the Ohio State Buckeyes start the season at No. 2.
Connelly explains that he bases the preseason rankings on three major factors: returning production, recent recruiting, and recent results.
Buckeye fans will be well-acquainted with SP+ by now. Like FPI, SP+ also had the Buckeyes ranked way too low to start the season. That made sense, though–both Ryan Day and Justin Fields, two of the most important pieces for any team, were still unproven (FPI cares much more about the coach than SP+ does).
Well, they are unproven no more, and the Buckeyes look like the second-best team heading into the season, right behind Alabama. SP+ was impressed with Mac Jones’ production after Tua Tagovailoa’s injury, and Alabama still returns a lethal receiving corps. That was enough to put the Tide at No. 2, though the Buckeyes are not at all far behind. Alabama and Ohio State are the only two teams to be ranked in the Top 10 of both expected offensive and expected defensive efficiency. No. 5 Penn State is ranked 11th in both categories, though.
(I have to note that Connelly did not mention whether the two recently-dismissed defensive backs for Ohio State were excluded from his “returning production” numbers, so it’s possible the Buckeyes will drop slightly in the expected defensive efficiency when the ratings are next updated.)
Ohio State’s Week 2 opponent, Oregon, is starting out at No. 13 in SP+. Bowling Green and Buffalo, the other two nonconference opponents, are at No. 127 and No. 80, respectively.
There are a few surprising placements of Big Ten teams. Indiana starts the year at No. 27 in SP+, and Minnesota is No. 20–but with the No. 6 offense. Of Ohio State’s cross-divisional opponents, Iowa comes in at No. 29.
These numbers are sure to change once teams actually hit the field, but they are some encouraging numbers for Buckeye fans, to start.
