Since the preseason, Ohio State Buckeye fans have been upset with how FPI rated the Buckeyes. I have not been worried, however. With how FPI works, it’s obvious why the Buckeyes were ranked so low. And I’ve been saying so.
In short, to understand where Ohio State started in FPI, we have to understand FPI. In short, FPI simulates the season, over and over again, and produces averages of expected outcomes. It is not meant to rate what a team has done so far–only what it is expected to do in the future.
Now, at the start of this year, it was hard to predict what the Buckeyes would do in the future. Ohio State was coming in with a brand new head coach in Ryan Day, along with a highly-touted yet entirely untested quarterback in Justin Fields. The Buckeyes’ top-end possibility was always among the top in the country. The problem is that the computer also saw the possibility for struggles. That’s not too crazy, of course, with a new transfer quarterback. So the averages for the Buckeyes were lower than fans are used to.
Now that Fields has produced three elite performances, there aren’t as many questions about the Buckeyes. The defense is also improving, which only helps. Now, the struggling simulations are fewer and fewer. That’s why Ohio State is up to No. 5 in FPI, just barely behind No. 4 LSU.
FPI’s simulations and formula are not public. It’s impossible to know if after just three weeks, Ohio State has more or less maxed out is rating. Is an FPI of 23.7 basically Ohio State’s top rating? (And FPI of 23.7 means that Ohio State should be favored by that many points against an average team on a neutral field.) Or are there still a fair number of these bad simulations weighing down Ohio State’s rating? We’ll find out in future weeks if the Buckeyes continue to exceed FPI’s expectations.
