Advanced analytic computer ratings show one major theme at this point of the college football season.
There are two teams that are far ahead of the rest of the college football field right now: Ohio State and Alabama.
Jeff Sagarin’s widely-respected Predictor ratings have the Buckeyes at No. 1, a full 3.8 points better than Alabama on a neutral field. The Tide are then another 4.6 points ahead of No. 3 Oklahoma. That’s right–according to Sagarin, Alabama is the only team in the country within a touchdown of Ohio State.
Other strong advanced metrics have Ohio State with an even bigger lead on the field. The Congrove Computer Rankings–a generally strong computer ranking system–has the Buckeyes 4.5 points ahead of No. 2 LSU, and a whopping eight points ahead of Alabama. That is a major outlier in terms of difference between the Buckeyes and Tide, but it’s definitely noteworthy.
There are many other strong predictive ratings out there. FPI and Bill Connelly’s SP+, both from ESPN, have Ohio State and Alabama neck-and-neck ahead of the pack. No other team comes within 3.5 points of the Buckeyes or Crimson Tide in either of those systems. That is quite a bit of separation early in the season, and nothing on the field indicates that anyone is closing the gap.
Of course, upsets happen in sports all the time, and no one can play perfectly every game. Being favored or being the best team in the country means a team should win a game, not that it will. Being rated higher just means a higher chance of winning; nothing is guaranteed.
Next … What the major computers say
Ohio State ahead in major computers
It is still a bit too early to focus on the “resume” computer rankings, as there haven’t been enough games to really build up the systems. I won’t go into too much detail about them, but there is one noteworthy fact at this point–Ohio State is No. 1 in a heck of a lot of computer rankings.
The Massey Composite tracks all sorts of computer rankings out there. It currently has 86 rankings–some are analytics/advanced metrics ratings, some are resume/strength of schedule rankings, and some are somewhere in between. Some are more accurate than others; I have publicly critiqued the flaws of at least one of those ranking systems in the past. Still, pulling together 86 of them (and more will be added later in the season as some rankings haven’t published yet due to lack of data) gives a good feel of the overall ranking, much as the human polls do.
A whopping 68 of the 86 computers have the Buckeyes at No. 1 right now. Now, there are a few reasons for this, and it’s too early to really take too much meaning from it. Still, that many at No. 1 is a strong indicator that the Buckeyes have both played a very tough schedule so far, and been very impressive in how they beat that schedule. We’ll dive further into these numbers later in the season (whether they stay the same or change), but for now it’s clear that the computers love the Buckeyes.
Here’s all the computer rankings for your reading and dissecting pleasure:
Jeff Sagarin’s Predictor ratings
ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index)
