Week 10 is a bit of an off week in college football, with so many of the top ranked teams on byes or, in Clemson’s case, playing cupcakes. Still, there are plenty of games, and they have some impact, even minimal, on the Playoff outlooks of the top teams.
Remember, this is all an exercise for what will get Ohio State into the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes are a lock if they win out, so we only care about rooting interests for the scenario if Ohio State would lose a game. Win the next five, and the Buckeyes are in. Also, I apologize for being delayed in writing this week. Ohio State fans should have been rooting for West Virginia to beat Baylor last night, and the Mountaineers almost came through. A Baylor loss would leave the Big 12 without an undefeated team and really hurt the top-end wins of whoever wins the conference. Alas, the Mountaineers couldn’t pull it off.
At noon on Saturday, N.C. State will try to take down Wake Forest. Wake Forest is the ACC’s only ranked team besides Clemson, so a loss by the Demon Deacons would help the Buckeyes. Not only would it eliminate Wake Forest, but it would hurt Clemson’s resume if things come down to a one-loss Clemson and a one-loss Ohio State for the final spot. For the same reason, root for Notre Dame to beat Virginia Tech. An Irish win would knock Clemson’s potential ACC Championship Game opponent down a bit, and have an added benefit of making Michigan look better. In a later ACC game, root for Pitt over Georgia Tech. Penn State beat Pitt earlier in the year, so it will be better for the Big Ten overall if the Panthers can win the ACC Coastal.
Utah (at Washington) and Oregon (at USC) both have tough games this week. The Buckeyes really don’t have to worry about either Pac 12 team catching them, but eliminating one (or both) from the conversation doesn’t hurt.
Also, remember to keep an eye on Ohio State’s nonconference opponents. The Buckeyes didn’t play a Power 5 team this year, but Cincinnati more than makes up for that. Root for Cincinnati to beat ECU. Also, Florida Atlantic is currently 5-3, and has its toughest remaining test of the season this week at Western Kentucky. If the Owls win that game, they’re looking at a likely 9-3 season. That won’t carry too much weight with the selection committee, but it definitely won’t be seen as a negative.
The Buckeyes really don’t have too much of a rooting interest in the major AAC game between SMU and Memphis. Ohio State basically wants whatever will make Cincinnati look better, and either result is solid for the Bearcats. Cincinnati plays Memphis the last week in November, and will face the AAC West champion the next week if it reaches the conference championship game. So either Cincinnati is facing two strong opponents in a row, or it will be one decent one followed by one very strong one. I personally don’t expect SMU to win out anyway, so I’m rooting for Memphis in this one, but if you disagree with my take on SMU then rooting for the Mustangs makes sense too.
Next… Who to root for in SEC Games
Florida vs Georgia
There are two meaningful games in the SEC this week. The first is the “Cocktail Party” between Florida and Georgia. And, honestly, either result is fine for Ohio State. In theory, Ohio State should root for the team with the weaker Playoff resume to win. As of right now, Georgia has better wins than Florida, but also a much worse loss. During the first few years of the CFP, the committee very clearly prioritized rewarding good wins over punishing bad losses. In recent years, the committee seems to have shifted to being more neutral on that, though wins still seemed to get priority–at least last year (though, as Ohio State fans have learned the hard way, it still very much punishes blowout losses to bad teams).
Where does that leave Buckeye fans in this game? Like I said, either way is fine. The committee has shown that it punishes blowouts, though, so root for the game to not be close. The winner is less important than one team looking bad in it. All else equal, Georgia winning is probably better just because the Bulldogs have more potential losses remaining on their schedule. Then again, that also gives Georgia more chances to impress the committee moving forward. Tough schedules are definitely a high-risk high-reward situation once a team has a loss, and that very much applies to Georgia right now.
The other big SEC game is Ole Miss at Auburn. The Rebels have kept every loss this year relatively close (well, “relatively close” against Alabama is still four scores), and Auburn is coming off a tough loss to LSU. An Ole Miss win would knock Auburn out of the Playoff picture and hurt the resumes of every SEC team that beat the Tigers.
They matter much less, but it also might be fine to keep an eye on Vanderbilt-South Carolina, as a Vanderbilt win would make Georgia’s loss look even worse. Also, UAB upsetting Tennessee hurts the SEC as a whole.
Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games
Michigan @Maryland
Any benefit that would come from Maryland reaching bowl eligibility would be more than outweighed by Michigan losing all the goodwill it earned from crushing Notre Dame. Also, Maryland probably isn’t reaching bowl eligibility even with an upset here. So while Buckeye fans might never actually root for Michigan, at least realize that a Michigan win this week is better for Ohio State.
Nebraska @Purdue
The Buckeyes played Nebraska this year; they did not play Purdue. Purdue is most likely not reaching a bowl game even with a win here, and Nebraska probably needs this win to go bowling. Also, last year’s loss to Purdue still hurts (I mean as a fan, not in any way that affects the CFP this year). Rooting for Nebraska is the easy call here.
Rutgers @Illinois
The Buckeyes don’t play Illinois this year but they will play Rutgers. Then again, Rutgers will be viewed as a cupcake even if it can win this game, so that doesn’t matter much. Meanwhile, Illinois can probably reach bowl eligibility if it wins this game. That will matter, because it makes Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois look only bad instead of awful. Root for the Illini to get to 5-4 in this one.
Northestern @Indiana
It’s a bad year for Northwestern, who would need to win out (which includes a game against Minnesota) just to reach a bowl. The Wildcats are looking cupcake-like this year. Meanwhile, Indiana received four points in last week’s AP Poll, all courtesy of Rece Davis’ ballot. That’s not noteworthy. What is noteworthy, though, is that Indiana received 18 points in the Amway Coaches Poll, good for 30th place. Appalachian State already lost this week.
If the Hoosiers can win this week, we are just a few upsets away (either this week or next, as Indiana is on a bye in Week 10) from seeing them ranked in the Top 25. That almost certainly won’t last–their following two games are Penn State and Michigan–but just getting into the polls this late in the season adds a level of respect that doesn’t go away. I highly doubt the selection committee will even consider ranking Indiana, whose two best wins (by far) are Maryland and Nebraska. Even so, the strong record and votes earned will make Indiana into a decent-quality opponent, not a barely-bowl-eligible mediocre P5 team.
