There are just two weeks left in the college football season, and one of those is just conference championship games. Ohio State looks to be closing in on a College Football Playoff spot. Now it’s time to look at what the Buckeyes should root for to ensure they get in, even if they don’t win their last two games. And, maybe, we can touch on what to root for to get a preferred matchup in the semifinals.
At this point, we first have to figure out exactly what case Ohio State is rooting for. The Buckeyes are a Playoff lock with a win next week in the Big Ten Championship Game, even if they lose to Michigan. So, basically, Ohio State is rooting for the scenario that can allow it to get into the Playoff with a Big Ten Championship Game loss.
We’ll touch on it more later, but an important starting point for Ohio State is Wisconsin beating Minnesota. If the Golden Gophers win out, they’re in the Playoff. A Wisconsin win means that the Buckeyes, at worst, will be the Big Ten’s only one-loss team, so Ohio State should stay ahead of Wisconsin even with a loss to the Badgers.
Improving the resume overall will be important if a 12-1 non-Big Ten champion Ohio State team wants in the Playoff, so wins by Miami (Oh) and FAU will be useful. A win by Cincinnati over Memphis is even more important, as that would likely lock up a year-end ranking for the Bearcats, and keep alive their chances of ending in the Top 15 or better.
Ultimately, though, for Ohio State to get in the Playoff in this case, it needs there to not be four other contenders with better resumes. Right now, the teams with potentially better resumes are:
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Utah
5. Oklahoma
6. Baylor
7. Alabama
Little things might matter, because if it comes to splitting hairs between a 12-1 Ohio State or a 12-1 Clemson (or a 12-1 Alabama), the more points of contrast in Ohio State’s favor, the better. We’ll focus on that later. For now, let’s get the big things out of the way. At least four of these teams need to have a resume worse than a 12-1 Ohio State (with a loss to Wisconsin) will have. Let’s break them down.
Next…Looking at these seven resumes
Ohio State needs to stay ahead of four of these teams
Let’s look at the seven teams with potentially better resumes than Ohio State. We’re going to show what needs to happen for their resumes to fall behind the Buckeyes. Also remember, there is an eighth team that could potentially jump Ohio State–the Minnesota Golden Gophers. If Minnesota beats Wisconsin, then Buckeye fans are hoping that five of these seven resumes fail to materialize. Let’s start at the top.
LSU Tigers
Honestly, just pencil LSU in to the Playoff now. The only way the Tigers fall behind the Buckeyes in our scenario is if LSU loses its last two games. Losing just to Georgia won’t help, because the Bulldogs would jump the Buckeyes instead. The only way 12-1 Ohio State ends up ahead of both LSU and Georgia is if both lose this week, then Georgia turns around and beats LSU next week.
Clemson Tigers
If Buckeye fans want to feel safe about being ahead of 12-1 Clemson, then hope that the Tigers lose the ACC Championship Game to either Virginia or Virginia Tech. A loss by Clemson to South Carolina might keep the Buckeyes ahead of the Tigers–Ohio State would certainly have a vastly superior resume. Whether the selection committee gives the “defending champions” some last-second benefit of the doubt is anyone’s guess, though, so it’s far better if Clemson loses next week (or both, obviously).
Georgia Bulldogs
One more loss, either this week or next, means that Georgia will be behind a 12-1 Ohio State team. If the Bulldogs win out, though, it’s very likely they would jump the Buckeyes in our case. Georgia’s resume would be just as strong in terms of wins, and the conference championship would make up for the much worse loss.
Utah Utes
If Utah loses one more game it will be locked behind the 12-1 Buckeyes. There’s a chance that 12-1 Utah (and every team further below on this list) doesn’t jump 12-1 Ohio State anyway, but that will make Buckeye fans very nervous on Selection Sunday.
Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears
I would expect either of these teams at 12-1 to jump a non-Big Ten champion 12-1 Buckeyes, though Oklahoma has the better chance. Again, it’s possible that they don’t jump the Buckeyes even at 12-1, but another loss by both would absolutely seal the deal.
Alabama Crimson Tide
I cannot imagine 11-1 Alabama jumping in front of 12-1 Ohio State. Buckeye fans like to be cynical about Alabama getting in over Ohio State, but the Tide actually had a decently superior (or at the very least equal) case in 2017. That is not true in the slightest this year. Alabama would have one ranked win to Ohio State’s four, and a far worse overall SOS. Alabama won’t jump the Buckeyes unless Ohio State loses its final two games. Still, if it will make you feel more safe, there’s no harm in rooting against Alabama this week anyway.
Next..who to root for in Big Ten games
Let’s just go through the Big Ten games this week and which would help Ohio State’s resume overall more, just in case we end up with the committee splitting hairs between a 12-1 Ohio State team and a 12-1 Utah, Oklahoma, or Baylor team. The Buckeyes will have the far superior resume anyway, but every little extra bit of juice will help, just in case.
Iowa @Nebraska
The Buckeyes didn’t play Iowa, and the Hawkeyes will remain ranked even with a loss. Meanwhile, Nebraska reaching 6-6 and a bowl game will mean that a whopping ten (or nine, if Michigan State loses to Maryland) of Ohio State’s 13 opponents will have reached bowl games. That’s an unreal and important stat. It might weaken the Big Ten’s overall profile a drop, but the benefit of Nebraska getting to six wins is worth it.
Northwestern @Illinios
The Buckeyes played Northwestern and not Illinois, but the Wildcats will be viewed as a cupcake no matter what. In this case, the Big Ten’s overall profile being weakened by an Illinois loss isn’t worth the tiny benefit of a Northwestern win.
Indiana @Purdue
The Buckeyes played Indiana, and having another eight-win team on the resume (Ohio State could have as many as seven of those out of the 12 regular-season games) would be very helpful. I don’t think the committee will rank Indiana regardless, but the win definitely looks better with the Hoosiers at 8-4 than at 7-5 and on a three-game losing streak.
Wisconsin @Minnesota
As mentioned earlier, the Buckeyes should be rooting for Wisconsin here, because a 12-1 Minnesota team with a head-to-head win will likely jump a 12-1 Ohio State. There is far less concern of an 11-2 Wisconsin team with a head-to-head split jumping a 12-1 Ohio State team.
Rutgers @Penn State
Root for Penn State to keep the Nittany Lions as a top-quality win. Nothing Rutgers does will get it out of cupcake range, so there’s no upside whatsoever to a Rutgers win.
Maryland @Michigan State
Same thing here. There is minimal upside to a Maryland win, but Michigan State winning means the Spartans are going bowling. Rooting for Michigan State is the obvious move here.
