We’re back for another week of Rooting Interests. Remember, the goal of this exercise is to look at what will give the Buckeyes the best possible resume in case they lose a game. 13-0 Ohio State is a Playoff lock, so there isn’t much to root for there. But if the Buckeyes drop a game to Penn State, Michigan, or in the Big Ten Championship Game, what will best help the Buckeyes get in to the College Football Playoff.
The first game Buckeye fans should pay attention to is Friday night’s Conference-USA showdown between Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Two of Ohio State’s nonconference opponents (Miami of Ohio and Cincinnati) have already essentially wrapped up division titles. FAU has a decent chance of making it three-for-three, but Marshall needs to lose a game for that to happen. This game is Marshall’s most likely loss in the final three weeks.
On Saturday, there are a ton of important games. As always, Alabama losing wouldn’t hurt, though is obviously unlikely. And while usually upsets always help, Florida has the weakest resume of any SEC contender right now. So as long as Georgia can lose the SEC East, Florida winning is better. Then again, if Miami (Fl) wins its final two games, Florida’s resume could be on par with Georgia’s. And, of course, a Florida loss isn’t a bad outcome, especially if Georgia beats either Auburn or Texas A&M.
In the afternoon, root for Navy over Notre Dame. Not only does an Irish loss hurt Georgia’s resume, but Navy could be 10-1 and meet Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. That would be a battle of Top 15 teams, and Cincinnati winning that would only make Ohio State look better. Speaking of Cincinnati, the Bearcats travel to face South Florida at 7 PM. Staying in the AAC in the afternoon, root for Memphis to beat Houston and keep its high ranking.
Moving over to ACC games, it’s always good to root for Clemson to lose. The Tigers, with a loss, should be ranked behind even a one-loss Ohio State team, so them losing to Wake Forest would be good. If they beat Wake Forest, though, pull for a blowout. The worst-case scenario would be Wake Forest being viewed as a more valuable win solely on the back of keeping it close against Clemson. Also, pull for Virginia Tech to fall to Georgia Tech. The Hokies could still be a decent opponent in the ACC Championship Game at 9-3, but a loss to Georgia Tech would erase that completely.
In the evening, don’t waste too much time on LSU at Ole Miss. The Tigers almost certainly won’t lose two games, and even if they do, they still have an incredible resume. LSU winning would help Ohio State by not making any of Alabama’s wins look more valuable.
There are pros and cons for both Baylor and Oklahoma winning. Baylor going undefeated is a bigger issue for Ohio State than 12-1 Oklahoma is, though, so you may as well root for the Sooners here. Either way, though, this game should be a close one, and preferably not a pretty one. Mistakes and turnovers winning the day makes both teams look bad, which is the goal here.
Two other 7:30 games matter, but in contradictory ways. Root for Georgia State to beat Appalachian State so that South Carolina looks worse. At the same time, though, root for South Carolina to beat Texas A&M–because Texas A&M not being a valuable win is more important than South Carolina being an even worse opponent. (Remember, Alabama beat South Carolina but Georgia lost to the Gamecocks.)
Later in the evening, Utah and Oregon losing don’t hurt. It’s better for Oregon to lose, though, for two reasons. First of all, Utah has a weaker overall resume than the Ducks. Secondly, especially if Oklahoma beats Baylor, remember that Oklahoma beat UCLA earlier in the season. Right now, the Sooners only have two decent wins (Texas and Iowa State). UCLA winning out–or at least upsetting Utah–would make Oklahoma look better. And speaking of Iowa State, root for the Cyclones to upset Texas. Not only would that help Iowa stay ranked (more on that in the next section), but it would take the luster off Oklahoma’s best win so far.
Next… Who to root for in Big Ten games
Big Ten Rooting Interests
Indiana @Penn State
This one is a bit interesting, but don’t overthink it. Yes, an Indiana win would likely get the Hoosiers ranked by the committee, and they could possibly stay there, even with a loss to Michigan. Penn State would also still likely be ranked at 9-3. Still, that’s not what’s best for the Buckeyes. Indiana at 8-4 will be viewed as a decent win. Penn State at 10-2 would be a great win, and likely a Top 10 team. One great win plus one decent win is always better than two good wins in the eyes of the committee.
Wisconsin @Nebraska
Don’t overthink this one either. Yes, it would be nice if Nebraska was a bowl team. But Wisconsin moving into or around the Top 10 is more important. Root for the Badgers to win in impressive fashion.
Michigan State @Michigan
The exact same calculus as in the last game applies to this one. Michigan is close to a Top 10 team with an impressive win here. Not only that, but Michigan State closes with Rutgers and Maryland, and should be able to reach 6-6 anyway. Michigan winning this game is better for the Buckeyes.
UMass @Northwestern
I’d cite pity as a reason to root for Northwestern, but UMass deserves pity more. The Wildcats will be viewed as a cupcake no matter what happens this game, but them winning hurts less than them losing this game.
Minnesota @Iowa
Root for Minnesota here, for a few reasons. First of all, it’s better for the Buckeyes if Minnesota can win the Big Ten West–but preferably if the Gophers lose to Wisconsin along the way. For that to happen, Minnesota needs to beat Iowa. Also, a Minnesota win likely jumps the Gophers into the Top
5 (maybe even Top 4) of the committee’s rankings, which is good for the Big Ten’s perception as a whole. However, the Hawkeyes should keep it close so that they can finish the season ranked if they end up 8-4. That would boost the resumes of Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan, which in turn helps Ohio State.
Next… Who to root for in Georgia-Auburn
Georgia @Auburn
The fun thing about this game is that there’s no real wrong answer on who to root for. A Georgia loss helps, but it might not hurt the Bulldogs enough, and it also helps Alabama. A Georgia win, meanwhile, means that Alabama’s best win will be over an 8-4 Auburn team.
In the end, the team to root for in this game comes down to what scenario we think we’re looking at. Is Ohio State 12-1 and Big Ten champs? Then root for Auburn, so that there’s no concern of a 12-1 Georgia fighting Ohio State for a spot. Is our scenario one where Ohio State is 11-1 and sitting out the Big Ten Championship Game (or 12-1 with a loss to Minnesota in that game)? In that case, Georgia winning is better, to further keep Alabama out of the equation.
Or, maybe, we’re expecting a 13-0 Ohio State team, and we’d rather that the final Playoff team be 12-1 Minnesota, or Oregon or Utah, and not Georgia or Alabama. In that case, the play is to still root for Georgia to win this game easily. Then, in three weeks, root for LSU to blow Georgia out and knock the Bulldogs out of the picture as well.
