The Ohio State football team has a good shot at making it into the College Football Playoff as long as it takes care of business. Recently returning to the top overall seed, committee members saw a terrible Buckeye performance still turn a dominant win on the scoreboard against Penn State.
With the win, the Buckeyes pushed their record to 11-0. They were able to take down the Nittany Lions behind outstanding performance from DE Chase Young and company, and running back J.K. Dobbins.
Young totaled three sacks and a career-high nine tackles, harassing the quarterback on almost every dropback. Dobbins put up 157 yards and two scores against one of the best rushing defenses in the nation.
Now with wins over Wisconsin, Penn State and Cincinnati (beating the one-loss Bearcats by 42), OSU has to finish the season out with Michigan and then the Big Ten Championship Game, already having clinched the Big Ten East and a bid to Indy.
For CFP implications, their matchup with a red-hot Michigan may not matter much. However, for pride, it almost matters more than any other thing this season can offer.
That said, let’s dive into five scenarios that you’ll want to watch for as we enter the home stretch of games.
Ohio State loses Big Ten Championship
This one is especially interesting. Assuming LSU defeats Georgia, opening a spot in the CFP, would a one-loss Ohio State team get in if their loss is in the Big Ten Championship Game?
They would potentially have to outbid a Pac 12 champion in Utah, a Big 12 champion in Oklahoma, a one-loss Alabama, and a Big Ten Champion in Minnesota, assuming the Gophers beat Wisconsin and are the other team in Indy.
Ohio State’s resume would place it above Alabama, and given the fact that the Buckeyes wouldn’t have a bad loss, something the committee frowns upon, you’d have to assume they’d also jump Oklahoma.
With two spots in the CFP, it seems entirely possible that the Big Ten could secure two teams in this scenario. However, if LSU were also to lose, it’d create an even more controversial scenario.
For now, let’s just assume Ohio State will absolutely blast Minnesota and be one of the two potentially undefeated teams in the CFP.
It’s also key to remember that Minnesota must defeat Wisconsin this upcoming weekend to clinch the Big Ten West.
Next … The Pac 12 runs into issues
No one-loss Pac 12 team
Top-ten ranked Oregon recently lost to Arizona State, pushing it back to No. 14 in the latest Committee rankings. With their only prior loss coming to the hand of Auburn, the Justin Herbert-led Ducks looked like the Pac 12’s best team.
Now the flag-bearer of the conference goes to Utah, winners of eight straight. The No. 6 Utes only loss was to USC, but they’ll still be facing Oregon in the conference’s title game.
The Ducks are no joke, led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Assuming they win that game and LSU still defeats Georgia, does Alabama find a way to get in?
Conspiracy theorists will tell you the committee is going to find every way possible to put the Crimson Tide in the playoffs. Having no one-loss Pac 12 team and a two-loss Georgia will put them in an interesting position to select either Oklahoma or Alabama.
As many teams will find out, their destiny is in their own hands, and the Pac 12 North-winners Utah is no different. It would need some help from LSU and either Virginia or Virginia Tech however.
Next … Georgia wins the SEC Championship
Georgia beats LSU
This won’t shake much up.
It’s certainly not overly likely as Louisiana State has shown no flaws this season, but the Bulldogs are an experienced bunch led by quarterback Jake Fromm. They also are a team that can match the athleticism of LSU and can make life difficult as one of the best defenses in the country.
While Fromm hasn’t looked great either this season, he’ll still have his team controlling its own destiny. If Georgia wins and every other likely scenario plays out, the CFP would be easy to predict.
We’d see Ohio State, Clemson, LSU, and Georgia. The interesting part here would be the seeding. Ohio State would likely stay at the top, undefeated Clemson, although they’ve played no one, would slide into the No. 2. slot most likely
Then, it’s up to the committee if they want LSU or Georgia at No.3. If this scenario comes to life, it’d really take all the anticipation out of the “who” when it comes to the four teams in the CFP.
Next … Clemson can’t seal the deal
Clemson loses in the ACC Title Game
Just like with Alabama, you cannot play a cupcake schedule and expect to get in without a conference championship. That’s why every game is so increasingly important for Clemson.
The Tigers will be taking on the winner of Virginia and Virginia Tech. That game will determine who wins the ACC’s Coastal Division and will take on the undefeated Tigers.
The Hokies kicked off the season as a ranked team but were eventually dropped after being stunned by Boston College. Since then, they’ve lost to Notre Dame by one point and won their last two games by a combined 73-0 score.
There’s no denying that Clemson will be the strong favorite, but it hasn’t had an overly impressive schedule this season, so who knows what we’ll see. If Clemson loses and Georgia loses as well, you can welcome back Alabama to the CFP folks.
It would then be up for grabs between Bama, Utah (assuming it wins the Pac 12) and Oklahoma (assuming it wins the Big 12).
I’d want to see Utah and Oklahoma secure the last two spots, but with Alabama currently No. 5 and a potentially season-defining game against Auburn, the Tide may stick around just enough.
Next … Oklahoma wins out with some breaks
Oklahoma wins out
If Oklahoma wins out and Georgia loses, do the Sooners get in?
The Big 12 has typically been a more difficult conference than the Pac 12, so it’d be easy to understand why the No. 7 ranked Sooner could leap the No. 6 ranked Utes although both teams remain at one loss.
Oklahoma barely beat Baylor, having to march from down two scores to defeat the Bears.
However, the two will once again meet in the Big 12 title game. Already having beat Texas, two victories over Baylor would likely combine to display a better resume than that of Utah’s.
I’d also be surprised to see a Big 12 champion not get in over a two-loss Georgia or a one-loss Alabama. OU QB Jalen Hurts is a Heisman candidate, and his dominance may boost Oklahoma’s chances.
Oklahoma may be a team that, as long as LSU wins the SEC, will control their own destiny.
