The start of the Ohio State football season will begin in earnest this weekend against a top-five opponent, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It’s just the first step though on a journey Buckeye fans, players, and coaches hope ends in another appearance in the College Football Playoff.
For the past eight years, ESPN has kept track of all the FBS teams and devised a formula to predict those that have the best chance at making the CFP. It’s not always right of course, but it does give a peek behind what teams are expected to be at the top of the food chain.
It’s no different in 2022. ESPN has already come out with its first College Football Playoff Predictor model, and Ohio State is high atop the teams expected to get into all the fun. All told, sixteen teams have a 2% or better chance of making the Playoff.
Here’s how all of those stack up, and where the Buckeyes fall as the season is about to get underway.
No. 13 (tie) - Texas A&M
Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher patrols the sidelines during an SEC football game. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
2%
No. 13 (tie) - Penn State
Dec 28, 2019; Arlington, Texas, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin celebrates with wide receiver Jahan Dotson (5) and quarterback Sean Clifford (14) after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Memphis Tigers at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
2%
No. 13 (tie) - Michigan State
Michigan State’s Jayden Reed returns a punt for a touchdown against Nebraska during the fourth quarter on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
2%
No. 13 (tie) - Auburn
Auburn defensive lineman Caleb Johnson (45) lays out Mississippi State running back Kylin Hill (8) at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019. Auburn defeated Mississippi State 56-23. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
2%
No. 12 - LSU
LSU football coach Brian Kelly speaks to the media following the first spring practice under him on March 24. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
3%
No. 11 - Oklahoma State
Jan 1, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of an Oklahoma State Cowboys helmet during the 2022 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
4%
No. 10 - Utah
Dec 3, 2021; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising (7) celebrates against the Oregon Ducks in the second half during the 2021 Pac-12 Championship Game at Allegiant Stadium. Utah defeated Oregon 38-10. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
6%
No. 9 - Miami (FL)
Oct 30, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Miami Hurricanes helmets sit on the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the third quarter at Heinz Field. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
9%
No. 8 - Oklahoma
Oklahoma helmets are seen before a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. Oklahoma won 16-13. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
12%
No. 7 - Texas
Oct 2, 2021; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs defensive end Ochaun Mathis (32) tackles Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
13%
No. 6 - Michigan
Jim Harbaugh would owe Michigan a $1.5 million buyout if he were to leave this year.Ohio State Buckeyes At Michigan Wolverines. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
16%
No. 5 - Notre Dame
Apr 23, 2022; Notre Dame, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman runs onto the field for warmups before the Blue-Gold Game at Notre Dame Stadium Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
30%
No. 4 - Clemson
Nov 7, 2020; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney signals to his players in the second quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
57%
No. 3 - Georgia
Nov. 15, 2014; Athens; Georgia mascot UGA IX is shown on the field during their win over the Auburn Tigers at Sanford Stadium. Georgia won 34-7. Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
74%
No. 2 - Alabama
Jan 10, 2022; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (31) walks off the field after losing to the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2022 CFP college football national championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
79%
No. 1 - Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day and Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) talk during a timeout in the third quarter of an NCAA Division I football game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Percent Chance of Making the College Football Playoff
