It was the best possible news for Barack Obama today: a steep fall in the number of people out of work in the US economy. It was the blight of unemployment that lay behind his party's disastrous performance at the polls in 2010. And it was high and persistent joblessness that threatened his re-election in 2012.
After months of bad news and weak job creation came the news that February at last saw signs of life in the labour market:
Hopes were boosted on Friday that the US economy may finally be on the mend after its worst post-war recession when figures released in Washington showed a big jump in job creation last month.
The Labor Department said employers in the world's biggest economy had hired an additional 192,000 jobs last month — the highest total since May 2010 when workers were being taken on to conduct the US census.
With more unemployed workers able to find employment, America's jobless rate dipped from 9% to 8.9% — its lowest for almost two years.
So far, so good. Just as the federal government's stimulus runs out of steam, the private sector finally steps in to take up some of the slack, which increased hiring by 222,000 after a modest rise of just 68,000 in January.
But there's an old saying in financial markets: beware of reading too much into one month's figures. Just as one swallow doesn't make a summer, neither does one bumper month. Economic history is littered with dawns that proved to be false, and lights at the end of the tunnel that proved to be on-coming trains.
In particular, unemployment remains high (historically, in US terms) at 8.9%. It will take several months of sustained job growth at February's level to bring that figure down to a comfortable level. And that remains to be seen.
As well, there are still many other signs of weakness in the job market. Average hourly earnings rose by just a single cent – to $22.87 – and the average work week was unchanged at 34.2 hours. When both those numbers start to move higher then Obama really will have something to celebrate.
For Republicans the improving job figures make life even more difficult. They can't claim any credit for an economic recovery – although that won't stop them trying of course – and it further befuddles their efforts to find a credible presidential nominee for 2012.
