When Democrats and liberals think about the next presidential election and the electoral map, they begin by conceding a number of states that Obama won in 2008, states that never go Democratic and probably did last time only because Bush was in the crapper, the economy was even worse, and the Republican candidate's choice of vice-president was even worse still. Indiana, for example. Hadn't gone Democratic since 1964.
Most people include North Carolina in that list. Obama won it by just .4 percent, or 49.9 to 49.5. And the liberal and black votes were really pumped up. So next time, under normal circumstances, it just isn't happening, right?
But here's a poll today of North Carolinians with these numbers:
National
2012 President
47% Obama (D), 42% Gingrich (R)
45% Obama (D), 45% Huckabee (R)
51% Obama (D), 40% Palin (R)
44% Obama (D), 42% Romney (R)
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 48 / 46
Sen. Burr: 38 / 31
Sen. Hagan: 35 / 42
Favorable / Unfavorable
Newt Gingrich: 29 / 48
Mike Huckabee: 42 / 39
Sarah Palin: 37 / 57
Mitt Romney: 32 / 41
I'd say that still looks pretty good for the guy. If he's holding at 48% in the state right now, he's only lost 4% of his support (that is, he's gone from 50 to 48, a decrease of two raw points but 4%), and that's not really bad at all. It's not as if I have roamed far and wide across the great Tarheel plateaux, but I do have a firm sense of central NC as being nearly as perfect an embodiment as we have in the US of the Judis/Teixeira Ideopolis. a concept with which you should become acquainted between now and 2012.
I would bet today on Obama carrying North Carolina again, maybe even against the Demon Barbour of Dixie (can one make Sondheim jokes about southern governors?). Not Indiana. And maybe not Florida, and maybe not Ohio either. But North Carolina and Virginia, yes. And Colorado. These are on their way to becoming Democratic states under normal circumstances. Maybe we can trade North Carolina for Maine.
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