Russia's shocking invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of the increasingly unstable global environment New Zealand operates in – and the Government must act both to support Ukrainians and guard against future shocks, Reuben Steff writes
“You may not be interested in war but war is interested in you” – Leon Trotsky
In a stunning and shocking move, Russian President Vladimir Putin (Vladimir, ironically, meaning to “rule during peace”) invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, from the north, east and south; a day that will now live in infamy.
In a turn of Orwellianism, Putin dubbed his move a ‘special military operation’ and launched the invasion at the same time the United Nations Security Council was meeting to call for restraint.
Putin is dead right – the invasion is special. Not because it is an internal matter for Russia given Putin’s view that Ukraine is not a real country (an argument that turns on the fact Ukraine has, for long stretches of its history, been part of the Russian empire) but because it is the largest conventional military invasion on the European continent since World War II.
His decision has ripped the future wide open.
Let’s be clear: virtually no commentators on the matter saw this coming. Many, including myself, thought we might see a quick military thrust into Ukraine to make a point to the world the country is judged vital to Russian national security interests, in addition to annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk in the east of Ukraine (two pro-Russian territories that have claimed independence since 2014).
Time to wake up
Although I did not foresee Russia’s invasion, the move is in line with my previous Newsroom piece on global instability acting as a wake-up call for Aotearoa. I wrote that article since the data I was surveying showed me a confluence of negative international and domestic trends that left me more concerned than it had at any time in my life. I won’t recount those in full here, but some of them included the re-emergence of Great Power competition between major states with a growing chance of war, a weakening rules-based international order and ascendant authoritarianism. Russia’s move into Ukraine is a key element in this.
I said the confluence of trends required New Zealand to do a lot more to get its house in order and to expand its state-capacity; to, frankly, get its head out of the sand, because in the years to come we are going to face more international shocks on a more regular basis to our economy, financial sector, our security and society. Already, New Zealand commentators are highlighting these issues and hopefully the seriousness breaks through to the Government to do more.
The diplomatic entreaties of our officials have been welcome – but words are cheap, we now need action. There is a case for greater resources to be fed into improving New Zealand’s resiliency when it comes to key material items. This could go some way to insulating us from the most severe global shocks and is a form of insurance.
As it relates to Russia and Ukraine? It’s tricky. Doing what others are doing – rushing military supplies to Ukraine – is at odds with our general approach to world affairs, and there is a chance it won’t get there should Russia win the conflict in short order.
But pledging financial and humanitarian assistance to assist Ukrainian refugees settle in Europe (there are already approximately 400,000 such people) and accepting some to live in New Zealand is an immediate step Wellington could take. Joining other Western nations to impose sanctions on the Russian leadership and its enablers is also necessary – and adopting an autonomous sanctions policy may also be necessary to show the seriousness with which New Zealand views Russia’s blatant violation of another’s state sovereignty and territory.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” Lenin once said – the last seven days have been one of those weeks.
It gives me no satisfaction to note Russia’s invasion supports my general thesis. We are already seeing multiple countries announce new military initiatives, with Germany, the sleeping giant of Europe, breaking its post-World War II pledge against sending offensive military equipment overseas (it announced the dispatch of sophisticated arms to assist Ukraine). It is also setting up a ‘special’ €100 billion fund to rebuild its military forces to include drives and new fighter jets. It’s defence spending will now permanently be about 2% of GDP.
Other events of note (there are too many!) include Belarus passing a referendum to renounce its non-nuclear status; the EU announcing it will accept refugees from Ukraine for three-year stays without going through an asylum process; the EU states and US rushing military equipment to Ukraine; Russia going to full nuclear alert; Russian banks being kicked out of the SWIFT banking system, and so on.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen,” Lenin once said – the last seven days have been one of those weeks.
I don’t know what happens next but more nations could choose to acquire nuclear arms and we are seeing hundreds of thousands, soon to be millions, of refugees flood out of Ukraine into neighbouring nations.
Ultimately, Putin’s invasion is a reckless gamble with unpredictable implications for Russia. If the invasion fails, and all indications are that Ukraine is putting up a hell of a fight, or the invasion is judged to be too costly, it could threaten his regime in the months to come. After all, Russia’s history is littered with failed offensive adventures that have led to the toppling of the regime that launched it and even, occasionally, revolutions.
As Leon Trotsky once said: “You may not be interested in war but war is interested in you”. This applies to New Zealand: history has well and truly returned, and we’d better start thinking and talking about it – and then actually doing something about it.
