Kia ora koutou.
The final leaders debate went Jacinda Ardern’s way on Thursday night, with Judith Collins subdued after a difficult week on the campaign trail, writes Eleanor Ainge Roy.
Asked whether her government had been “transformational”, Ardern said it had but that she needed more time to repair decades of neglect in housing, transport and the environment. Both Ardern and Collins said they would commit to halving child poverty by 2030.
The rivals were then asked if they had anything to say to each other. Ardern thanked Collins for her “moving and sincere” speech after the Christchurch mosque shootings in March last year, and her action on gun control.
Collins thanked Ardern for giving “her heart and soul” to the job of prime minister, and said she knew the effort, time and toll it could take. Collins admitted that while she enjoyed the campaign trail, she missed having dinner with her husband and son.
With more than 1.4m advance votes already cast, both National and Labour have switched from winning hearts and minds to simply boosting turnout ahead of election day on Saturday (though National did sneak in one more policy announcement: a commissioner for senior citizens).
You may have heard – Ardern has ruled out, for the nth time, a wealth tax under a Labour government. “I won’t allow it to happen as prime minister,” she said while campaigning in Christchurch on Wednesday.
Ardern has been forced to repeatedly deny the possibility of the Greens’ desired tax of 1% on net wealth over $1m (and 2% over $2m) this week as Collins insisted she would change her mind in coalition.
Stuff’s Thomas Coughlan likened the “absurd” discourse to Monty Python’s dead parrot sketch, “with one politician asserting the tax dead, deceased or passed on, while another claims it is very much alive”.
Ardern has not wavered from her position, and says National forcing the point speaks to their “desperation and misinformation” in the final leg of the campaign.
The least that can be said for the approach is that it distracts from Collins’ description of obesity as a “personal choice” – the other way she has grabbed headlines this week. It was perhaps to pander to the food lobby, suggests Anna Rawhiti-Connell for Radio New Zealand.
Even Collins’ own MP, Mark Mitchell (a likely contender for National’s leadership, should Collins lose the election), was quick to agree that obesity was “more complex” an issue than could be solved by personal responsibility and frozen veg.
Wealth of options
Collins’ fixation on the wealth tax suggests she has picked Labour’s most likely path to government as a coalition partner with the Greens. That party is refusing to let the dream die, with co-leaders Marama Davidson and James Shaw emphatic that it remains on the table until after the election.
But it is possible that Labour may be able to govern alone – dampening hopes for a more progressive coalition (because, again, just to be clear: Ardern has said “now is not the time to be experimenting with tax policy”).
Labour has pushed its past successes and the importance of continuity this campaign – an approach that has been decried by some supporters as, at best, risk-averse.
Experts polled by Charlotte Graham-McLay gave Ardern’s government a C or C+ grade for its performance on the environment and poverty, while the BBC’s Shaimaa Khalil spoke to those who feel let down by her leadership.
This week finance minister Grant Robertson gave credence to criticisms of centrism by appealing directly to supporters of former National leaders John Key and Bill English in a new television spot. The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire also contrasted the Nats’ past campaign messages with those of Labour in 2020 in a quiz and found them surprisingly hard to distinguish.
In The Conversation, Massey’s Richard Shaw writes that the “Jacindamania” of 2017, promising transformation, has been replaced by “rhetoric of recovery”. Those looking for greater action on climate, in particular, will have their fingers crossed for a strong showing from the Greens on Saturday. Politik’s Richard Harman has considered how a relationship might work, as has RNZ’s Tim Watkin.
Minor matters
As Eleanor Ainge Roy writes in two explainers, on New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional system and its history of coalition governments, Ardern’s policy has been not to comment on coalition negotiations – though polling suggests voters would prefer it were made clear before the election.
RNZ’s Peter Wilson says all signs point to a four-party Parliament. Act’s David Seymour has had the strongest campaign of the minor parties, capitalising on the lacklustre performance by New Zealand First and National.
With Winston Peters’ kingmaker days behind him, Newsroom’s Sam Sachdeva has explored options for who Ardern might choose as her deputy PM. The Spinoff’s Alex Braae has also shared his predictions for the minor parties.
Fringe party Advance NZ has had its Facebook page shut down because of “repeated violations” involving the spreading of misinformation about Covid. Party co-leader Billy Te Kahika called it “a cynical example of election interference”.
What the polls say
The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, published on Thursday, held good news for the Green party, with a two-percentage point rise to 8%, while both Labour and National dropped a point to sit on 46% and 31% respectively. That scenario would mean Labour would need a coalition. In terms of preferred PM, Ardern rose 5% to 55%, while Collins dropped 3% to 20%.
Internal Green polling on the cannabis referendum provided to the Spinoff suggests the result will go to the wire, with advance voters less likely to be in favour. Some early voters may not have appreciated the New Zealand Medical Association suddenly changing its stance from opposed to neutral. A Research New Zealand poll put 46% in favour and 40% against.
Sunday’s Te Ao News/Curia poll puts the Māori party co-leader John Tamihere at 29% in Tāmaki Makaurau, behind Labour’s Peeni Henare on 35% – perhaps the best shot for the party’s survival, writes Leigh-Marama McLachlan for the Guardian.
Coming up
Advance and overseas voting ends on Friday (here’s our o/s voting guide). It is also the last day to enrol to vote (except in-person at polling places on election day).
Voting is open 9am to 7pm on Saturday. Preliminary election results will be released progressively after 7pm. Preliminary referendum results are not expected until the end of the month.
Picture of the week
The quote
I’m not someone who takes chocolate biscuits to the bargaining table.
Collins’ sights remain set on leading outright with an apparent swipe at Ardern’s peace offering of gingernuts and chocolate wheatens at coalition talks in 2017 (frozen veg, then?). Asked for her strategy for the last days of the campaign, Collins said it was to “basically be far more fabulous than anything on the other side”. Graham-McLay interrogated her polarising style in this Guardian profile.
The tweet
“I love the smell of election hand sanitizer in the morning....The smell, you know that alcohol smell. Smelled like victory.” pic.twitter.com/XatuH33TOC
— Michael Field (@MichaelFieldNZ) October 14, 2020
While the loss of “I voted” stickers was mourned last week as a Covid-related casualty, the hand sanitiser on offer at polling stations has proved a bright spot with the fragrance widely praised on social media as “absolutely delightful”.
Peter Riordan, the Electoral Commission spokesman, told the Guardian that the Earthwise Nourish sanitiser was selected for its price and the fact that it was New Zealand-made: “The pleasant fragrant was an unexpected bonus.” (To be clear, this is not #sponcon.)
The moment
Thursday’s night’s most heated debate moment came when Collins accused Ardern’s government of repeatedly breaking promises to voters. Ardern responded that she was not a liar and objected to being labelled one, slamming Collins for causing “mischief” and spreading “misinformation”.
We’ll be back with one post-election wrap, early next week. Thanks for reading.
Ka kite anō au i a koutou …
