Shares of Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) have tumbled 10% so far in November, headed for their worst monthly performance since March despite record-breaking earnings and strong forward guidance, as investors reprice high-flying AI stocks.
Nvidia stunned Wall Street earlier this week with $57 billion in third-quarter revenue, crushing the $54.9 billion expected and marking a 70% increase from last year, driven by soaring demand for artificial intelligence chips.
However, these impressive results weren’t enough to shield Nvidia stock from a broader rotation out of richly valued AI equities.
Nvidia’s stock traded at $181 heading to close on Friday, after a highly volatile session that saw prices swing from an intraday low of $172 to a high of $184.56.
Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering allowing exports of Nvidia’s high-end H200 AI chips to China, a pivot that would mark a notable shift from prior policy.
The Commerce Department is reportedly reviewing export restrictions, which previously barred such sales amid national security concerns.
The stock is now on track to post its sharpest monthly decline since March, when it fell 13.2%.
Should You Buy The Nvidia Stock Dip?
Post-2008 data shows that Nvidia stock tends to rebound strongly after monthly drops of 10% or more—especially over longer holding periods.
Benzinga calculations based on TradingView data reveal that following similar drops, 12-month average returns stood at 66.54%, with a winning rate of 68.9%.
While near-term performance remained volatile—with average 1-month returns at a negative 1.34%—longer-term investors have typically been rewarded. For instance, following a 13.2% drop in March 2025, Nvidia rose just 0.5% over the next month, but surged 45.77% after three months and 72.15% after six months.
Even more striking: after a 11.8% decline in September 2023, Nvidia returned 258.34% over the next 12 months.
The best 12-month performance came after the January 2016 drop, which was followed by a 272.76% gain.
Average Forward Returns
- 1-Month average: –1.34%
- 3-Month average: +2.93%
- 6-Month average: +23.43%
- 12-Month average: +66.54%
Winning Rate
- 1-Month win rate: 51.7%
- 3-Month win rate: 55.2%
- 6-Month win rate: 55.2%
- 12-Month win rate: 68.9%
| Entry Date (After NVDA down >10% on a month) |
1M % (Forward) | 3M % (Forward) | 6M % (Forward) | 12M % (Forward) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-07-01 | -38.89 | -42.79 | -56.89 | -39.69 |
| 2008-08-01 | 10.49 | -23.43 | -30.51 | 13.02 |
| 2008-10-01 | -18.21 | -24.65 | -7.94 | 40.34 |
| 2008-11-03 | -14.73 | -9.25 | 31.05 | 36.53 |
| 2008-12-01 | 8.03 | 10.84 | 39.63 | 74.83 |
| 2009-11-02 | 9.20 | 28.68 | 31.35 | 0.51 |
| 2010-02-01 | 5.26 | 2.08 | -40.29 | 55.43 |
| 2010-06-01 | -22.30 | -29.03 | 3.57 | 52.51 |
| 2010-07-01 | -9.99 | 14.42 | 50.83 | 56.07 |
| 2011-04-01 | 8.34 | -13.68 | -32.23 | -16.60 |
| 2011-07-01 | -13.21 | -21.49 | -13.02 | -13.27 |
| 2011-08-01 | -3.76 | 7.01 | 6.80 | -2.10 |
| 2012-01-03 | 6.57 | 11.08 | -0.29 | -11.54 |
| 2012-05-01 | -4.38 | 4.15 | -7.88 | 5.92 |
| 2012-11-01 | -0.04 | 2.38 | 14.99 | 26.84 |
| 2016-02-01 | 7.07 | 21.30 | 94.95 | 272.76 |
| 2018-11-01 | -22.48 | -31.82 | -14.15 | -4.65 |
| 2018-12-03 | -18.31 | -5.61 | -17.11 | 32.62 |
| 2019-01-02 | 7.68 | 34.50 | 23.02 | 76.25 |
| 2019-06-03 | 21.24 | 23.66 | 60.00 | 162.08 |
| 2022-02-01 | -0.41 | -24.25 | -25.82 | -20.21 |
| 2022-05-02 | 0.67 | -2.07 | -27.23 | 49.61 |
| 2022-07-01 | 19.82 | 19.92 | -3.60 | 179.06 |
| 2022-09-01 | -19.58 | 12.12 | 53.81 | 226.98 |
| 2022-10-03 | 11.19 | 20.39 | 128.82 | 258.34 |
| 2023-01-03 | 33.69 | 90.07 | 189.46 | 238.87 |
| 2023-10-02 | -6.25 | 13.85 | 107.72 | 179.18 |
| 2025-02-03 | 4.04 | -9.29 | 48.14 | — |
| 2025-04-01 | 0.50 | 45.77 | 72.15 | — |
| Average | –1.34% | +2.93% | +23.43% | +66.54% |
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Image created using artificial intelligence via DALL-E.
