Nvidia cleared a buy point on Tuesday and headed higher into a buy zone on Thursday. Meanwhile, one key chart indicator has turned bullish. So, is Nvidia stock a buy now?
Nvidia last week said it would invest up to $100 billion in ChatGPT developer OpenAI. Under the strategic partnership, OpenAI will deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centers running Nvidia processors.
OpenAI's valuation has hit $500 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, citing sources, with other news outlets also citing sources about the massive valuation. "Nvidia is poised to generate well over $600 billion in free cash flow over the next 3.5 years," after its $100 billion investment in OpenAI, analysts at Melius Research said, according to Barron's.
On Tuesday, Citi raised its price target on Nvidia to 210 from 200, citing expansion in the AI infrastructure market and its recent investment in OpenAI.
The Nvidia/OpenAI deal could raise antitrust concerns, Andre Barlow, an antitrust lawyer with Doyle, Barlow & Mazard, said, according to a recent Reuters report, indicating the partnership may capture the Department of Justice's attention.
Nvidia Stock: Analysts Mostly Positive
Meanwhile, KeyBanc this week raised its price target to $250 from $230 while maintaining an overweight rating. Analyst John Vinh noted that Nvidia had increased performance specifications for its next-generation chip Rubin that is set for mass-scale production next year. The move distances Nvidia from competitors such as Advanced Micro Devices, Vinh aid.
Earlier, Evercore ISI raised its Nvidia sales estimate by $5.5 billion in the second half of 2026 and boosted its price target to 225 from 214. Bank of America analysts see the OpenAI investment returning three to five times the initial investment. But Stacy Rasgon at Bernstein raised "circular concerns" with Nvidia investing in startups that then go on to buy its graphic processing units. But the analyst noted that demand remained healthy.
Barclays last week joined a chorus of analysts turning bullish, giving Nvidia stock a price target of $240, up from $200 while maintaining an overweight rating.
Nvidia is positioned to gain the most from the $2 trillion spending on AI infrastructure, Barclays noted.
U.S.-China Talks
Nvidia stock suffered a slight loss after some news about China regulators.
The China's Cyberspace Administration ordered major tech companies to stop buying AI chips made by Nvidia, The Financial Times reported in mid-September.
Earlier, China's State Administration for Market Regulation was reported to be investigating whether Nvidia breached the country's antitrust rules by acquiring Mellanox Technology in 2020.
Nvidia said it had received approval "from all necessary authorities" to move forward with its planned acquisition of the network technology group.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China had a phone conversation and agreed to more talks in October, Barron's reported.
Nvidia Stock: Second-Quarter Results
Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.05 per share, topping the estimate of $1.01 per share. Sales of $46.74 billion beat views of $46.05 billion. The company reported zero sales from its China H20 chip and did not include H20 sales to China in its fiscal third-quarter revenue outlook of $54 billion.
Wall Street was expecting $53.43 billion. The company also announced a $60 billion buyback.
Analyst Estimates Ahead Of Earnings
Ahead of Nvidia's second-quarter earnings report, William Blair analyst Sebastien Naji gave an outperform rating with a price target of $205. The analyst expected zero revenue from China for the second quarter, but had anticipated China would boost Nvidia's outlook.
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland raised his price target for Nvidia to $210 from $180 while maintaining a positive rating. However, in his earnings preview note, the analyst was cautious about Nvidia's revenue from its H20 chips.
The Information recently reported that Nvidia had ordered component makers of its China chip to stop production. This comes after the Cyberspace Administration of China had asked Nvidia in July to explain if its chips could be tracked or shut down remotely.
Chief Executive Jensen Huang said the chips do not have such capabilities. Separately, the AI giant may also be working on a new chip for China that may be more powerful than the H20, Reuters reported.
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Nvidia's China Revenue Deal
In August, Nvidia struck a deal that secured a license to sell its H20 AI chips in China, but, in exchange, the company will give 15% of its revenue from chip sales in China to the U.S. government.
Nvidia's revenue deal could invite scrutiny, according to Doug Jacobson, an international trade attorney at Jacobson Burton Kelley, Barron's reported. Jacobson said that the State Department is able to charge export-license fees related to defense technology, but the fees are not based on earned revenue.
Nvidia placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips with Taiwan Semiconductor, adding to an existing inventory of 600,000-700,000 chips, Reuters reported in late July, citing unnamed sources. In 2024, Nvidia sold around 1 million H20 chips, the report said, citing research firm SemiAnalysis.
A $4 Trillion Market Cap
In July, Nvidia became the first company to hit a $4 trillion market cap, overtaking tech titans Apple and Microsoft.
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In terms of its 12-month price performance, Nvidia has outperformed 89% of all other stocks in Investor's Business Daily's database. The stock has gained 33% year-to-date, based on Friday's closing price.
Funds own 41% of Nvidia's outstanding shares, according to IBD MarketSurge. Its Accumulation/Distribution Rating has been improving and sits at B. That shows that funds have started to buy the stock. The rating measures price and volume action over the last 13 weeks.
The AI chip behemoth has a top-level Earnings Per Share Rating of 99. Further, the stock's all-around strength, or Composite Rating, sits at 99.
Is Nvidia Stock A Buy?
Looking at chart signals and technical measures can help investors assess whether Nvidia stock is a buy or sell now.
Nvidia has broken out of a flat base at a buy point of 184.48. That triggers a buy signal. Shares have risen into the 5% buy zone that goes up to 193.70. Nvidia is a buy now.
