As of this writing, Nvidia (NVDA) stock is up 1.7% in intraday trading, bringing its market capitalization to $4 trillion. This makes it the most valuable company in the world, and the first company to cross the $4 trillion threshold. And, believe it or not, Wall Street thinks Nvidia has more gas left in its tank.
With investors excited for the next leg of Nvidia’s growth, the question is: Can Nvidia reach a $10 trillion market cap by 2030? Let’s find out.
Data Center Growth Fueled by Blackwell GPUs
Nvidia’s Data Center segment is the primary engine driving its AI push. It generated $39 billion in the first quarter of Nvidia’s fiscal 2026, a 73% year-over-year surge and accounting for nearly 89% of overall revenue. Behind this growth is Blackwell, its new GPU architecture that has transitioned at record speed, now accounting for nearly 70% of Data Center compute revenue. The latest GB200 NVL systems, designed for massive AI workloads, have already been delivered to major hyperscalers, including Microsoft (MSFT), which has deployed tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs, with OpenAI as a key customer. Sampling for the next-generation GB300 “Blackwell Ultra” has also begun, with production shipments expected in Q2.
Despite its momentum, Nvidia took a hit from new U.S. government export controls imposed on April 9, targeting the H20 GPU designed specifically for the Chinese market. Despite having sold $4.6 billion worth of H20 chips before the cutoff, Nvidia was forced to write down $4.5 billion in inventory and obligations, resulting in a significant but anticipated financial charge. Looking ahead, the company anticipates an additional $8 billion in Q2 revenue due to H20 bans. Nvidia is effectively shut out of the $50 billion Chinese AI accelerator market.
Huang stated on the Q1 earnings call that Nvidia currently has no approved modified chips for China. The company is looking into ways to serve the Chinese market without exceeding its limits, but nothing has been confirmed yet. The company also returned a record $14.3 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, maintaining capital discipline amid infrastructure expansion.
Robotics and Agentic AI Are the Future
“Blackwell is built to power the full AI life cycle from training frontier models to running complex inference and reasoning agents at scale,” said Huang on the earnings call. In his view, the future lies in agentic AI — autonomous systems that don’t just respond but reason, learn, and act. Nvidia has introduced several tools to help drive this transformation, including the Llama Nemotron reasoning models and NeMo microservices.
Beyond cloud data centers, Nvidia is preparing for the real-world impact of AI. Huang emphasized that the industrial AI frontier is a huge opportunity hiding in plain sight. Its Omniverse platform is expanding with industrial partners such as Taiwan Semi (TSM), Foxconn, and GE Healthcare (GEHC), enabling real-time simulation and digital twin capabilities across factories and cities.
In robotics, Nvidia introduced Isaac GR00T N1, the world’s first open foundation model for humanoid robots, which was quickly adopted by leaders such as Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Uber (UBER), and Waabi. Nvidia’s vision of the AI factory, a new type of infrastructure for developing and running large-scale AI models, is also rapidly taking shape. Management stated that nearly 100 AI factories are now in operation worldwide.
Industrial AI could be its most profitable future offering. Huang concluded the earnings call by stating, “This is the start of a powerful new wave of growth.” And the CEO is not exaggerating. Nvidia now has several growth engines, including AI inference at scale through Blackwell, industrial robotics and simulation through Omniverse and Isaac, enterprise and sovereign AI infrastructure, and a possible re-entry into the Chinese market.
Analysts expect revenue to increase by 53% to $199.8 billion in fiscal year 2026, followed by a 43.6% increase in earnings. In fiscal 2027, revenue and earnings are expected to rise by 25.6% and 34.4%, respectively. Trading at 37x forward earnings, Nvidia stock remains pricey.
What Is Wall Street’s Take on Nvidia Stock Now?
On Wall Street, Nvidia stock remains a “Strong Buy.” Out of the 44 analysts covering the stock, 37 have a “Strong Buy” recommendation, three say it’s a “Moderate Buy,” three rate it a “Hold,” and one says it is a “Strong Sell.” The average target price of $176.98 suggests Nvidia stock can climb by roughly 10% from current levels. Plus, the high price estimate of $250 implies upside potential of roughly 50% over the next 12 months.
The Bottom Line
Nvidia’s revenue growth rate remains among the highest in large-cap tech. AI demand is only accelerating, and Nvidia’s full-stack AI dominance is unmatched. The company’s multiple growth engines present a compelling case for Nvidia stock for the long term, with the probability of reaching $10 trillion in market cap over the next five years. However, since the stock is trading at a premium, risk-averse investors may prefer a better entry point around $148 or $149 levels to invest with a margin of safety.
On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
