Nvidia shares drifted lower Monday as investors positioned ahead of the chipmaker's closely watched quarterly earnings report, due after the market close on Wednesday. The stock, which last traded near $185, has been volatile in recent sessions as Wall Street debates whether the company can continue powering the AI boom at its recent breakneck pace.
Expectations heading into the report are unusually high. Analysts anticipate revenue of about $54.8 billion and adjusted earnings of roughly $1.25 per share, forecasting that Nvidia's cutting‑edge AI processors remain in strong demand across cloud computing, data‑center infrastructure and enterprise deployments.
Adding to the attention: CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly underscored the vast size of the opportunity ahead. He recently projected that the total infrastructure spending for AI could reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 — far beyond what many in the market expect — and has signalled that Nvidia is positioning itself to capture a major portion of that build‑out. Analysts say Huang's bold comments are part of the reason sentiment remains so elevated.
Nvidia's stock has surged more than tenfold since late 2022, placing pressure on the company to deliver another decisive beat‑and‑raise quarter. Any signs of slowing orders or margin pressure could ripple across the tech sector, where Nvidia plays an outsized role in the supply chain for advanced computing hardware.
Sentiment has been mixed ahead of earnings. A recent regulatory filing showed that investor Peter Thiel's fund exited its entire Nvidia position during the third quarter, a move that added to broader market caution. Meanwhile, global equities have traded nervously in recent days as traders brace for both U.S. economic data and Nvidia's numbers, which tend to move markets broadly.
Analysts say they will be looking closely at Nvidia's guidance for the current quarter, as well as commentary on cloud‑provider demand, manufacturing constraints, and the impact of export‑control rules. Profit margins will also be in focus amid questions over rising costs for components and advanced packaging.
Despite recent choppiness, many on Wall Street remain bullish. Several firms have raised their price targets in recent weeks, arguing that hyperscaler spending and the buildout of AI data‑centers remain in early stages. One major Wall Street house recently raised their target for Nvidia stock to $240, citing that the size of the AI infrastructure market appears less "outlandish" than previously thought.
But with expectations towering, even a modest shortfall could reignite worries of an overheated AI trade. For investors, Wednesday's earnings are shaping up to be a critical moment — not just for Nvidia, but for the trajectory of the entire AI‑hardware boom.
