Till Tuesday, the district had recorded a total of 56,660 COVID-19 positive cases, with the first case being recorded in March this year.
However, health experts feel that the actual number of cases could be more than 20% of the figures shown in the health bulletin.
What is shown in the health bulletin is those who have tested positive at government-run testing centres. What is not recorded is the ones who have got tested at private labs and those who have taken treatment privately based on symptoms.
“Many with symptoms did not even approach a testing centre or a government hospital, and got treated through a private medical practitioner. As per an ICMR study, this number is sizeable and they could be possible carriers for a predicted second wave,” said Dr. Hema Prakash, a microbiologist at GITAM Institute of Medical Research and Science (GIMSR).
Mutation factor
Talking about virus strains, Dr. Prakash said that the strain in the district, or for that matter, elsewhere in the country, is less virulent than those detected in the Europe or the USA. That is why the recovery rate is higher and the death rate is fortunately low, she said.
But microbiologists who have been researching the strain feel that the virus could mutate in the coming months, which can be a reason for the second wave.
“One primary reason for mutation is climate, and with the sliding of temperature in the next couple of months, we may see a mutation in the strain,” said Prof. T. Raghava Rao from the Department of Biochemistry, Andhra University.
‘Hasty reopening’
Experts said that people were cautious when the pandemic was in its early stages and enforcement was strict. However, as the curve began to reach its peak, enforcement slackened and people too let down their guard.
“As the next three months are crucial, the virus that belongs to the cold virus family is going to be more virulent and following the basic norms with some enforcement will go a long way towards keeping the virus at bay,” said Dr. Hema Prakash.
